What’s leading analysts’ downgrade parade of Apple?  Does AAPL really deserve this punishment?

“It’s not often–like almost never–that you see a downgrade parade like the one for Apple this morning, that doesn’t follow earnings or some kind of catalyst,” Jim Goldman reports for CNBC. “But such is the case today for Apple [AAPL $111.25, -$16.99 (-13.25%)], from the likes of RBC Capital, Morgan Stanley and Barclays (though Barclays merely reinitiated with a lower price target.) Morgan Stanley took its target from $178 to $115. RBC went from $200 to $140.”

Goldman asks, “So why now, why all of a sudden and why so much pessimism around these shares?”

“Well, first things first: fundamentals be damned. I don’t think this is necessarily about what Apple itself might be doing wrong. It seems to be far more “macro” than “micro.” I spoke to one analyst this morning who says the economy is such a mess right now with so much concern about the consumer, that a year from now no one wants to look back and say ‘how could you have possibly missed that?’ Whether Apple products are still selling well or not,” Goldman writes.

“I suspect that if Apple misses its numbers in a few weeks, this analysis this morning will look pretty spot on. But if Apple blows through those expectations, and beats, these analysts can seek cover under the guise that these concerns today, mirroring the macro-economic condition, could gain a foothold at any time over the next year or so and they thought that now would be a good time to sound the alarm bell,” Goldman writes.

“Trouble is, this kind of the thing tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, which means this analysis–any analysis–can’t be wrong. Even if it might be,” Goldman writes. “And that’s a rough place for investors to be if they’re trying to, well, invest.”

Much more in the full article – highly recommended 0 here.

65 Comments

  1. Yes, Apple appears to be weathering this economic downturn better than any of the competition. However, they are not bulletproof. These downgrades are premature at the moment, but they “could” be accurate if the economy continues to slide.

    My question is shouldn’t they wait until there is evidence first?

    Oh wait, it’s Wall Street, no legitimate explanation is needed these days.

  2. I seriously thik this is time for those banks and those analysis to be replaced.

    Game is over.

    The financial system needs to be deeply rebuilt from almost zero.

    I am 33 years, and i am ok to pay any price to change that.

    “independent” analysis make no sense.
    But “independent” analysis provided by overpaid private bank employees makes even more no sense.

    I am an entrepreneur.
    I am enthousiastic.

    I don’t understant why it is possible to earn money when a stock fall…

    Please, everyone, remember the taste of success, real one…

    Entrepreneurs and geniuses needs money to accomplish miracles. That should be preserved.

    Nobody should have any interest in a failure.

    Please, government in any countries, REFORM, CHANGE, REBUILT… just keep this in mind : economy is a tissue of millions of companies that need help.

    Preserve that.

    Make shure that industrial finance products that make beting on a failure never exist again.

    A young entrepreneur.

  3. 1. I suspect Apple doesn’t give a shit about the stock price. They have boatloads of cash in the bank and have no need to generate capital by issuing stock.

    2. That flushing sound you here is the sound of the world economy going down the toilet. If consumers are broke or simply afraid of losing their jobs, bank accounts, investments, etc., they will not be spending on much besides necessities. Therefore, whether we want to admit it or not, the economic downturn could very well impact Apple’s sales numbers over the next couple years.

    3. As most smart analysts have stated, nothing justifies the steep slide in Apple’s stock value. This looks a lot like a stampede of ignorant people who are following the advise of other ignorant, and scared, people.

    4. When Apple hits $99, which I am sure it will based on the goofiness of the market, BUY, BUY, BUY. Your investment may not pay off for a few years, but when it does–Holy Shit, you will make a truckload of money.

  4. RIMM reported a bad quarter and lost what, 25 points? Apple drops that much based upon what?…speculation?
    Now, it AAPL smashes the streets expectations, they will gain what?…5 or 6 points? Will the analyst who look stupid get the axe? Not a chance!
    It is totally and completely unfair. It is emotional, and people should sit or buy.
    Morgan Stanley sucks!…and all Morgans Stanleys kronies will follow suit!

  5. Betting on good vision, good team and good products is a good idea.

    BUT

    We are entering the RealEconomy2.0.
    This will take months, probably years.

    The problem : what will be the valuation of companies in this RealEconmy2.0 ?

    To everyone, do not listen to advices.

    I personaly own AAPL shares, but would certainly not recomend to anyone to invest in it right now, even at 100$.
    I personaly would if i had spare money.
    But we face a major economic mutation (needed !)
    Until the rules are clear, you need severe big balls to move in.

  6. Shorts ganging up on what they can given the regulations on financial stocks. Goldman-Sacks, now that they are protected are using their analysts to move down stocks they are shorting.

    As soon as the regulation came out I knew this would happen.

  7. My question is why do so many people have stock when it seems to be an extremely silly game, played with real money?

    Could the stock game be like at the casino, where, unless you have extremely long dollars, you’ll probably lose in the short term, rather than win in the long term.

    It’s like a college course where you pass all the exams, but the professor fails you because “it rained last week” WTF?

  8. AAPL doesn’t deserve the smashing any more than RIMM deserved it. RIMM had an incredible quarter, missing overblown analyst estimates by a penny.

    Wall Street is goofy right now, you really can’t make any assessment about the health of either company based on share price and what a bunch of analysts think.

    Both companies are extremely healthy and are going to be around for a long time to come, a lot longer than some of the firms that are commenting negatively on them.

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