What’s leading analysts’ downgrade parade of Apple?  Does AAPL really deserve this punishment?

“It’s not often–like almost never–that you see a downgrade parade like the one for Apple this morning, that doesn’t follow earnings or some kind of catalyst,” Jim Goldman reports for CNBC. “But such is the case today for Apple [AAPL $111.25, -$16.99 (-13.25%)], from the likes of RBC Capital, Morgan Stanley and Barclays (though Barclays merely reinitiated with a lower price target.) Morgan Stanley took its target from $178 to $115. RBC went from $200 to $140.”

Goldman asks, “So why now, why all of a sudden and why so much pessimism around these shares?”

“Well, first things first: fundamentals be damned. I don’t think this is necessarily about what Apple itself might be doing wrong. It seems to be far more “macro” than “micro.” I spoke to one analyst this morning who says the economy is such a mess right now with so much concern about the consumer, that a year from now no one wants to look back and say ‘how could you have possibly missed that?’ Whether Apple products are still selling well or not,” Goldman writes.

“I suspect that if Apple misses its numbers in a few weeks, this analysis this morning will look pretty spot on. But if Apple blows through those expectations, and beats, these analysts can seek cover under the guise that these concerns today, mirroring the macro-economic condition, could gain a foothold at any time over the next year or so and they thought that now would be a good time to sound the alarm bell,” Goldman writes.

“Trouble is, this kind of the thing tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, which means this analysis–any analysis–can’t be wrong. Even if it might be,” Goldman writes. “And that’s a rough place for investors to be if they’re trying to, well, invest.”

Much more in the full article – highly recommended 0 here.

65 Comments

  1. Shortsqueeze.com reports that 5 million shares have been added to the short total, bringing it up to 25.6 million shares, which you can multiply by $100 to get a result of a mere $2.6 billion in total.
    Market manipulation by allowing analysts to short the market and then issue downgrade reports, justified or not, is legalized theft. It’s high time to eliminate short selling, just as wash trading was eliminated after Joe Kennedy made his fortune and the SEC was formed to counter such nasty practices. And to put it in the clear, disallowing shorting on one class of stocks and not on others is criminal.

  2. This is so full of crap! Apple is doing better than any computer company in the business. Why beat on Apple? Why doesn’t Microshit’s stock go down to $2 a share. They have absolutely NOTHING to show they are going to do anything good. There latest OS won’t be out for another 7 or 8 years. They have already delayed there first beta. Apple has NO DEBT, and 20 BILLION DOLLARS in the bank collecting interest. They are making money hand over fist. There is absolutely no grounds for the stock to be hammered like this just because 2 ANAL-ISTS write some piss of crap with there STUPID theories.

  3. “Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty cut her rating on the stock to equal-weight from overweight. Huberty said overall PC sales are slowing, and Apple doesn’t have a presence in the market for PCs that are priced less than $1,000 — which is the one area of the sector that is growing.”

    There are so mnay logical errors here that I don’t even know where to start. Huberty demonstrates monumental ignorance. but this isn’t the first time. She’s missed on Apple revenue projections by as nuch as 20% in the past. A monkey throwing darts could do better.

  4. There are other factors in play. A lot of money is leaving the stock market now, and in a short amount of time will be moved in the grain markets. The harvest estimates are way long, many people in the know realize this and are ready to move into those markets which will show much greater returns in a much shorter time frame then even AAPL. The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report for released Tuesday morning to show stocks near 30-40 million bushels lower than 1.576 billion bushels posted in the last supply/demand report as ending stocks for the 2007/08 season.

  5. Morgan Stanley is one of the banks that’s been chosen by the Federal Reserve to benefit from the current market chaos.

    The administration will play along, so in between buying up other banks at fire-sale prices, they can probably get away garden-variety manipulation, like downgrading AAPL in a nervous market and selling short.

    -jcr

  6. Unless Steve Jobs starts gaining weight… the perception will be that his health is failing. He hasn’t looked good lately and there are people who are questioning Steve’s / Apple’s future. Apple had failed to demonstrate a chain of command that will give people the warm fuzzys. Don’t get me wrong- Apple has a lot of great people but Steve’s a tough act to follow.

    I love Apple and I wish Steve the best- but perception is perception and in the end- that’s what drives WallStreet.

  7. The real problem with Apple is they have way too much of that cash stuff just laying around in those insecure financial institutions.

    Any one with cash is wishing they were broke like me;-) this makes me feel so much better about being leveraged to the hilt, my cash can’t disappear with some greedy bank CEO.

  8. You cannot drive an iPhone, eat an iPod or live in an iMac, even though an old G5 Tower makes a great furnace.
    Now that the NeoCon wet dream of casino markets and banking has been revealed for the farce and fraud that it is, people are getting very selective on expenditures.

  9. Americans and their every minority and poor family in their own home wether they can afford it or not mentality.

    They change the rules so people who can’t afford to by a car, can still get a mortgage on a new home. Then they stand around like a bunch of zombies wondering why all these mortgages are in foreclosure.

    It is the liberal, socialist left that is responsible for this mess no mater who was in charge when the shit hit the fan.

    For those of you who don’t believe that, do you honestly think that a bunch of right wing conservatives actually cooked up a plan to give new homes to minorities and the poor?

  10. “For those of you who don’t believe that, do you honestly think that a bunch of right wing conservatives actually cooked up a plan to give new homes to minorities and the poor?”

    My God, of course not. They were too busy giving massive tax breaks to the rich and corporate welfare bailouts such as those to the Big 3 auto companies, who richly deserve to fail for their shortsighted stupidity and inability to compete in the free market.

  11. Well, Berrylium, answer me this.

    Why do they call it The Big 3 when Toyota isn’t among them. Toyota even makes more vehicles in North America than Chrysler makes world wide. Nobody needs to bail out Toyota.

    Seriously though, remember that the Banks being bailed out all lost their shirts on the cheap mortgages for minorities and the poor that were forced down their throats buy the socialist left. Much pressure was put upon them by liberal Senators and Congressmen.

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