The Motley Fool: Apple ‘may be the next Dell’

“How do we value Apple’s stock now [that Boot Camp has been released]? To answer, we’ll need to dig into Apple’s strategy. I’ve got my own opinions on that, but I’ll first give the floor to an old friend of mine, Rich Levin, a former InformationWeek editor and host of a national radio show covering tech topics. We’ve debated this and that about the Mac for what seems like just short of forever,” Tim Beyers writes for The Motley Fool. “This time, however, I think he’s spot-on:”

“It’s the first EFFECTIVE strike at Dell. It’s also a strike at Microsoft, and uses its own OS against them. And it’s a dual-edged ‘Win’ [sic] for Microsoft … Every Windows user will consider a Mac if Apple prices them competitively, and continues to produce computers that have style, superior engineering, and better quality overall in a world of commodity tin-box PCs … Flip side: Apple’s strike at Dell and Microsoft will not be maximally effective unless users don’t encounter limitations. They have to embrace Windows hardware, games, etc.”

Beyers writes, “I couldn’t agree more… Apple’s courtship of Windows users isn’t new. Ever since October 2003, when Apple first released the iTunes Music Store for Windows, Apple has been on a mission to woo PC loyalists. And that makes sense. If CEO Steve Jobs really wants a spot on the couch, he’s got to have a platform that, at the very least, offers the most and best video games. That’s not the Mac today. It’s Windows. (After the Xbox, Playstation, and the like, of course.) Think about that for a second, and then think about this: Every PC maker — Dell especially — wants to be your coach in the Couch Potato Games. To date, they’ve had two advantages over Apple: price and Windows. The first was eroded substantially when the Mac mini debuted with PC-like pricing. The second died with the introduction of Boot Camp. That leaves design and brand appeal as differentiators. Do you really believe Apple can’t win that battle?”

Beyer’s does some calculations and “puts [Apple] stock at more than $137 a share, or at least a double from yesterday’s close…Nice, right? Indeed. Just bear in mind that this valuation has several flaws. For one, Apple may already be richly valued. Second, Apple may not convince a substantial number of Windows users to buy Macs. Third, iPod and iTunes may not remain as dominant as they have been. Finally, there remain distinct differences between Apple and Dell, which could corrupt my assumptions… Bottom line: Apple may end up as the next Gateway. Or it may be the next Dell. Personally, I think the latter is much more likely.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Thankfully, Beyer doesn’t mean Apple will be assembling ugly boxes, slapping somebody’s upside-down and backwards attempt at copying the Mac OS onto them, and then using bait and switch tactics to sell them to dupes online; he means Apple’s going to be selling a lot more Mac hardware now.

Advertisements:
Apple’s brand new iPod Hi-Fi speaker system. Home stereo. Reinvented. Available now for $349 with free shipping.
Apple’s new Mac mini. Intel Core, up to 4 times faster. Starting at just $599. Free shipping.
MacBook Pro. The first Mac notebook built upon Intel Core Duo with iLife ’06, Front Row and built-in iSight. Starting at $1999. Free shipping.
iMac. Twice as amazing — Intel Core Duo, iLife ’06, Front Row media experience, Apple Remote, built-in iSight. Starting at $1299. Free shipping.
iPod Radio Remote. Listen to FM radio on your iPod and control everything with a convenient wired remote. Just $49.
iPod. 15,000 songs. 25,000 photos. 150 hours of video. The new iPod. 30GB and 60GB models start at just $299. Free shipping.
Connect iPod to your television set with the iPod AV Cable. Just $19.

33 Comments

  1. <quote> Wait till all the windows users That try OS X start asking “How come windows cant do that?” </quote>

    You’re right.. Windows is indeed severly limited in it’s UI design. However, where it DOES take the cake, and has for a very long time is…

    Customizability. Freedom of choice.

    There is software out there that emulates much of the behavior of what the mac can do. In fact, even existed BEFORE apple bought it (hello, Next OS?) And I’m not even going to start on the choice of hardware that a PC can run VS what a mac can run.

    If I don’t like something on windows, I can change it, which can easily be done. (i would argue, easier/faster than on a mac… but i digress.)

    also, if I don’t like the size of my HDD… I can upgrade it. in my laptop. by myself. without voiding the warranty. for only $150. same thing for memory.. cpu… etc… (even moreso on the desktop…)

    With apple now supporting windows (which only has ironically happened AFTER the “winxp on intelMac competition? Hello… where the credit to the man who rewrote the intelMac “bios” for the 10 grand prize?) it was a smart move, as they will not lose any customers who are sick and tired of not having the support of 90% of the software developers when they are looking for applications. I can count the number of [desirable] applications for a mac on my digits… in binary. (these being OSX apps.. not Unix apps)

    Will apple be the “new” dell? Unless I can get a customizable, “upgradable-any-time-I-want” computer at a low cost… then no. They won’t. However, just as an observation, they will kick HP and Sony in the nads. (HP/sony selling fashion computers VS apple selling fashion computers… all competitively priced? I’d rather go with apple)

    Will apple get any new customers? Perhaps. I really doubt it though. Why the f* would I want to spend $4000 – $8000 on a apple system capable of playing games, when I can build a system that will kick it’s ass for $2000 flat (with a 24″ display)?

    <sarcasm>
    Granted, I must admit though for fashion whores… yes. there will always be a market for price-gouging your customers. “Ohh! look at my pretty mac! and look at all the neat buttons i can push!”

    umm.. sorry. but no. i’d like a computer… not an expensive piece of plastic that looks pretty, that has a severe limit to what it can do, or what i can do to it.
    </sarcasm>

    Now.. I must say, that this generality really only applies to users who play games, and/or are into CUSTOM rigs. For everyone else who just types emails, docs, and surfs the web, osX is the way to go. (then… there is linux….)

    Is apple mainstream? no. will they be? I don’t know… but definately moreso than they were.

    -n

    :: now… would i like to have a mac? sure. they are nice, stable, visually beautiful machines. if i could upgrade their hardware. put whatever os i want on them – which is happening – and they started including mice with more than one button.. all for an affordable price.. then, i would get one. until then… there is newegg.

  2. Given that Apple, like any successful company, exists to make money and increase the returns for their shareholders, what motivation would Apple have to continue MacOS X development in the long term if they can sell more boxes to the public with Windows installed? Developing and maintaining an OS is not a cheap activity and so there would need to be a very good reason to continue this. And immunity to viruses is not something that drives up sales (witness the dominance of Windows). How would Apple justify the long-term development of MacOS to its shareholders?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.