UBS analyst David Vogt thinks Apple’s iPhone 15 demand is ‘mixed at best’

On September 22, 2020, UBS analyst David Vogt assumed coverage of Apple and downgraded Apple shares by lowering UBS’s rating to “neutral” from “buy” and tagged the stock with a 12-month price target of $115. Vogt wrote at the time that he thought Apple shares already reflected growth from the “5G cycle.” Apple shares that day opened at $112.68. On September 23, 2020, after numerous headlines screamed Vogt’s Apple rating cut, AAPL shares closed down at $105.22.

Apple logo

At the time, we had a Take (of course): “David Who? Buying opportunity.”

Exactly 12-months later, on September 22, 2021, Apple stock closed at $144.18 or $29.18 per share higher than Vogt’s 12-month target and $38.96 above the closing price on the day of our “buying opportunity” Take.

Today, Wednesday, September 20, 2023, Vogt wrote in a note to clients (who ought to get their heads checked or at least follow a real analyst) that UBS data tracking iPhone availability across 30 countries “indicates initial demand for the iPhone 15 is mixed at best.”

Apple stock again dropped following several blaring headlines of “mixed at best” iPhone demand from the Apple analysts’ village idiot (and it takes a very special, and we do mean special, analyst to qualify to be that village’s idiot.

“At the high-end, delivery wait times for the Pro variant across major markets are lower by roughly a week relative to last year including the U.S., Germany, Great Britain, and France,” Vogt wrote. Wait times for iPhone 15 Pro are 24 days vs. 32 days last year and wait times for the flagship iPhone 15 Pro Max are 40 days vs. 39 days last year, according to Vogt, which, without knowing how much supply Apple has for each model this year (or had last year) tells us nothing of any value whatsoever.

Keep in mind also that iPhone supply last year was notably hampered due to the CCP’s quixotic “Zero COVID” lockdowns in China. So, a thinking person might infer that situation very likely contributed to longer wait times last year vs. this year. But Vogt thinks this year’s marginally shorter wait times mean that “initial demand for the iPhone 15 is mixed at best” and that he should tell his hapless clients all about it. Like we said, a genius Davy is not.

We won’t even get into the fact that any increase in demand for iPhone 15 Pro Max over iPhone 14 Pro Max would sweeten the mix and boost Apple’s iPhone ASP, which Vogt should interpret as good news for Apple, even though his wait times without supply data formula remains meaningless.

Vogt also reiterated his vaunted and oh-so-important (yet now-proven wrong to the tune of $29.18 per share) “neutral” rating on Apple stock with a 12-month price target of $190.

Seeing as how wrong his 12-month price target was last year, for those of you who like to make money, use this information as you wish.

MacDailyNews Take: David Who? Buying opportunity.

MacDailyNews Note: This article has been iCal’ed for future use.

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  1. Great Mdn take. So nice to have a true independent thinking voice that can be critical. I don’t always agree with the Mdn take but I respect there is a thinking person that can actually rub 2 brain cells together and come to an independent conclusion…one that isn’t a “daring lapdog”.

    The analysts that cover Apple are so truly awful for the most,part and have bizarre axes to grind.

  2. why is he covering apple if he isn’t a believer in the product> I see a far superior product that will continue to take share from other makers…in addition to solids their own base. Buy! Buy! Buy!

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