Loup Funds’ Managing Partner, and longtime Apple analyst, Gene Munster believes that Apple CEO Tim Cook will retire as soon as 2026.
Apple has meaningful China exposure. Apple’s business is more sensitive to the topic given our estimate that 75-80% of the company’s product sales, or 60-62% of overall sales, are “Made in China.” On top of that, 18% of Apple’s annual revenue comes from Greater China, essentially equal to the size of its Services business. Compared to other big tech companies, I believe that Apple has the most China exposure.
While it will take years, I believe that Apple is in the process of reducing its reliance on China. Apple thinks about its business in terms of decades, and in the end, I believe the company will be successful in building production and a strong user base outside of China… Tim Cook has decades of experience in navigating the political landmines that come with relying on a global supply chain. Based on that experience, I believe he sees the writing on the wall and the need to lessen exposure to the region.
Separately, I believe that Cook will write two more chapters as CEO of Apple. One on the new product category side, which will most likely be something in AR, health or auto. Second, a chapter on supply chain diversification. If you’re wondering, my guess is that Cook will retire between 2026-2028, based on his age (61 y/o) and option package. This would mean he has plenty of time to position the supply chain for the next decade.
MacDailyNews Take: So, if Munster is right, Cook & Co. have 4-6 years to lessen Apple’s product production in China, which Munster estimates is today responsible for some 75%-80% of Apple’s product production.
That’s too much. It’s always been too much. It’s obviously too much risk to be that dependent on any one country, especially one like China (Uyghur genocide, COVID, rampant IP theft, etc., etc., etc.)
Now, Apple was in dire straits when Cook came aboard in the late 1990’s and began the move headlong into China. That move helped to save Apple, so you can see why Cook has been so wedded to China ever since, but times change and it’s been clear to most for many years that Apple has too many of its eggs in one autocratic, capricious basket.
Perhaps COVID and the Chinese Communist Party’s increasingly quixotic responses to the disease they likely concocted and released (knowingly or unknowingly) finally jogged Cook out of his comfort zone. If so, silver lining.
Well, better late than never. Hopefully, Apple can put the pedal down and move production out of China as much as possible, greatly reducing Apple’s risk before Cook retires.
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The sooner Cook retires, the better.
Enough with the sanctimonious, woke, cardboard placeholder. Apple deserves a charismatic, visionary leader!
Totally twatish comment. Cook has done wonders for Apple and the shareholders.
Imagine how much better a good CEO would have done!!
You’re the one with the grandest imagination, telling everyone that the world’s richest corporation in history is underperforming. Why don’t you tell us all the new products you would have made, and just for grins tell us how much money you would make having them all assembled in your imaginary perfectly vertically integrated manufacturing site that happens to be within sight distance of where you were born?
Just because Sam may not be a better CEO than Cook, doesn’t mean that Cook is a good CEO, or that there are not better, but only someone who can think would be able to come to that conclusion.
Libturd much?
“Libturd much?”
Which has exactly what to do with this story?
Partisan lunacy blinders aside.
So as a shareholder, how are you not satisfied with the returns on your investment? I just cannot see, being a shareholder myself, any justification for anything else other than ‘whoop de whoop!’
Don’t you believe in capitalism?
But then if you are judging Apple by missed opportunities, more charismatic leadership or products that don’t exist you must be able to cite some names who would be a good for Apple and products that have been rolled out on the same scale as Apple, in say the last fifteen years.
Interested to know.
Hey, Cook: Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Same goes for China-puppet Biden LOLEightyonemillion.
So what do you have to say about your boy hiding classified materials in his house hmm?
Pleading the 5th at a deposition? (doesn’t protect him on civil matters, can be used against him).
Oh but yeah, Hilary and her emails…
Obvious you are epic clueless to the whole story reduced to smug partisan taunts. Yes, much easier to be a Democrat FOOL these days believing the present administration, lack of justice departments (Hillary e-mails, Hunter Biden, et al) and Big Media lies. Enjoy your blind sided IGNORANCE…
You know, for a judge to sign off on a search warrant at the property of a former president is not a small order or something that would be done lightly so despite how Trump and the right want to spin this, they’d not have been able to get the warrant unless the case for it was iron clad.
I find the hypocrisy really interesting though, but it’s not surprising. What’s bad for one is okay for the other. You do know Trump ran private email servers as well right? Where was the outcry over that?
I don’t agree with her politics but I admire Liz Cheney for standing up for democracy. She’s right, the US is moving towards autocracy and it’s interesting how all the right wing FREEDOM! yelling patriots are okay with this.
Judge handpicked by DOJ for an end game purpose same as the J6 commission. A magistrate not a federal judge, recused himself from a former Trump case before his court and posted anti-Trump tirades on social media. Former President Trump has a glowing note of praise from the government archivists collaborating with him in February and last visit of federal agents in June offered them anything they want. Cooperated immediately when agents issued the padlock orders. Trump’s team all have private e-mail accounts, who does not? Have not seen evidence of private servers containing classified e-mails, same level as Hillary’s abuse of 30,000 deleted e-mails and classified material under subpoena, showing up on aides and boyfriend computers all proven by the FBI. Liz Cheney stood up for the interests of the oligarchy Republican Washington establishment, Never Trumper party elites, oil and military industrial complex business interests. Liz was egged on in the spirit of her father’s false claims of WMD, making millions off the Iraq war and other interests are/were in jeopardy from the former president. Cheney and GW Bush were both used by the Grand Old Party for the same purpose. Nothing noble in protecting the continuing grifter enrichment schemes of GOP politicians.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/liz-cheney-primary-loss-trump-shouldnt-2024-presidential-run-rcna43504
Nice try, lots of words there but they’re just an attempt to obfuscate away from what actually happened.
“Mr. Trump received a subpoena this spring seeking additional documents, and federal officials met with Mr. Trump and his lawyer Evan Corcoran at Mar-a-Lago. After the visit, at least one of Mr. Trump’s lawyers signed a written statement claiming that all material marked as classified and stored in boxes at Mar-a-Lago was returned.
But an inventory of material taken from Mr. Trump’s home during last week’s search showed that agents seized 11 sets of confidential or secret documents.”
So beyond the question of why the documents were there in the first place, the fact is that he did have them, his lawyer lied about it, and it’s a crime for them to be there.
As for Liz, I’ve said I don’t support her politics but I do support her calling out the GOP as being led by extreme right wing forces that are very close to ending democracy in the US. And that is something that should worry everyone, MAGA folks included.
Yes, HM excellent try at presenting facts that exist without your knowledge. No laws were broken. President has the ultimate authority to declassify anything at anytime, whether the liars on the left believe it or not.
Cook’s command of AAPL has helped this pilgrim retire young and rich beyond my wildest dreams. Here here to Tim Cook! I bow down… into my ocean of cash 🙏
Payed off. Got it…
GoeB Missed out. Got it..
Explains a lot.
Obviously, you got…NOTHING!
Got it??…
People cheering for this man to be gone… fail to realize he’s been the most successful CEO in the world. You’re not raging at his ‘woke politics’ you’re raging at 2022. If you don’t like 2022 it’s only going to get worse with each passing year.
A dead fucking donkey could have done exactly what Cook has “done” during his time as CEO. He was and is coasting on the legacy of his predecessor.
John Skulley was more successful than Steve Jobs money wise after he got Steve kicked out. Cook just had a bigger bankroll. A good CEO would have done way better. Steve Jobs would have owned Tesla by now BTW.
Tesla is a slow motion train wreck. No wise leader would want to own it. Tweety Musk would generate nonstop misinformation and distractions. The company’s main profit centers, overzealous investors and EV tax credits, can dry up fast. Tesla’s high-cost infrastructure in CA, TX, and also CHYYYNAAAA are huge money pits and/or IP leaks. The car software is wedded to Google. The self driving gimmick is a massive liability. And the competition has caught up in both performance and price. Not to mention basic vehicle quality.
All the great engineers that made Tesla drivetrains innovative for their day aren’t going to save the company from the stupid mistakes that its leaders have been making.
Tesla may want to sell itself, but there are many reasons no competent CEO is going to buy the whole flaming pile.
You’re funny. Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Cheap talk won’t get ya a bag o’ nickels as my pappy once said. Much less a circa 3T market cap. Holy smokes! ..says pappy.
How about he retire tomorrow instead. Yes, tomorrow is much better than any date after tomorrow. And please announce to the world when you contract monkeypox. Laughter is the best medicine.
Please post your resume so we can see what great leadership skills we can get to replace that terrible evil Cook who drove the company into the ground.
In a world where everyone except the 5 whiny MDN trolls are labeled “libturds”, surely only you can save the company. We can’t wait to read your business proposal for a merger with Trump Steaks. Or maybe Trump Casino. Whatever.
You don’t have to be an idiot or brilliant to know, the sooner bean counter Cook leaves, the door is wide open for creative geniuses to quickly TRANSFORM Apple FASTER to previous cutting-edge-glory! Counting much more than same old, same old yearly iPhone profits and ending cautious me too product management (M-Silicon notable EXCEPTION)…
The Apple Silicon project was started by Steve Jobs, of course.
It figures. Same as Apple Watch. Thanks for that, Anon Insider!
recent studies, the most thorough to date, definitively establish the origin of COVID in the Chinese wet market from natural sources.
Two strains were circulating in the market and they can track initial cases down to clusters within the market itself.
Beware “studies” paid for / promoted by China.
If you think the American mainstream media and governmental agencies (FBI) aren’t doing China’s bidding, you’re hopelessly uninformed / naive.
Click to access Unclassified-Summary-of-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf
Your screen ID is exactly right, thinkers have known this from Day One. Unfortunately, worked superlatively in the Democrats favor delivering victory to the Biden Buffon, via the 24/7 disinformation brainwashing coming from willing accomplices in the Big BIASED MEDIA…
Timmy has been sucking Steve’s fumes for a decade. Lost the home market. Also-ran in streaming. Me-too product add ons. Started with the sapphire factory and trailed down form there. Good riddance.
True to an extent. But the over-the-top vitriol slung at Cook is off base. Nobody here has offered any realistic recommendations on what specific actions Cook should have taken, or what their pie-in-the-sky imaginationary perfect CEO would yield for Apple customers. This site now seems to specialize in extreme politics rather than rational evaluation of any subject.
I have my gripes about Apple like everyone else, but most of them you read aren’t in the domain of the CEO. The agitators here whip everything into a raging hatefest. It’s really destroying what could be a civil discussion.
Here’s a random list of 10 things I would do differently: and almost all of them would result in lower profits for Apple. Most of them were issues that were already a problem under Jobs as well. In no particular order:
1) Reduce Mac and accessories prices across the board to gain market share, don’t be so skimpy on hard drive and RAM.
2) Reboot networking division including consumer and business-oriented WiFi and NAS products, marketed to users so that they can easily replace cloud rental services with their own easily managed data storage. Move Apple TV into that division, not headed by Eddie Cue, and report earnings on it. Give streaming services power back to users via local data storage buffering, better interfaces, less user tracking, and dramatically better integration with Home stuff.
3) Stop stock buybacks, invest instead in more vertically oriented manufacturing on each continent.
4) Significantly reduce executive compensation, putting that obscene budget toward enhanced employee training and infrastructure improvement.
5) DO NOT retreat from China. Use existing Chinese supply chain to deliver goods only to Asian market. ADD manufacturing capacity on all other continents to serve those customers, using the pile of cash that is currently horded in shell companies in low-tax havens.
6) Streamline model lines in all business units — Mac, iPad, and iPhone are all unnecessarily complicated or disjointed. Clearly delineate what is consumer and what is Pro, axe useless marketing stuff like Air and alphanumeric mumbo jumbo.
7) Open up iOS to allow qualified software developers to sell “in app purchases” from their own software distribution networks. Block mega developers Google and Facebook, etc from invasive user tracking.
8) Clean house of low-value executives and middle management.
9) Axe all Apple Car development once and for all.
10) Improve software in all areas so that users aren’t tempted to rely on freebie software from data-thieving companies. Make it user visible exactly what data they’re giving up when using these services from unscrupulous companies.
Having it both ways I read. Mentions problems with Cook, does not mention the problems. Followed by opinion gripes “aren’t in the domain of the CEO.” Steering clear of criticism of Cook, another deliberate sycophant appraisal: “10 things I would do differently.” Well Professor, the buck STOPS with Cook whether you believe it, or NOT.
The sooner Cook exits Apple, fingers crossed SOON, the stronger and more creative Apple will emerge from the money piles…
He has done wonders!!!…. Way beyond Steve could even Fantom himself ! Zero Doubt…ZERO…..(In my mind and soul! .. absolutely.)
Some are bitter because they let their prejudice create this huge blind spot in therir minds…
Hey you All.. J.B and etc..
Look at the reality … not your prejudice! ….
US. is LOST IN a mindless Bullshitism! ..
200 years down in two.. Record for sure.. !
Complacency and Bullying LaLa land attitude…. as evident in the stupid grin of Brandon!