PCE inflation gauge rose 5.4% in March, the highest in nearly 40 years

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index increased 5.4% from a year ago, the largest increase in nearly 40 years. Federal Reserve officials consider the PCE gauge to be the most reliable inflation indicator.

Inflation

Jeff Cox for CNBC:

Excluding food and energy prices, the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 5.4% from the same period in 2021, the biggest jump going back to April 1983.

Including gas and groceries, the headline PCE measure jumped 6.4%, the fastest pace since January 1982.

Surging prices dented consumer spending, which rose just 0.2% for the month, below the 0.5% estimate. Disposable personal income increased 0.4%, a touch below the 0.5% expectation, while real disposable income fell 0.2%.

The Fed has reacted to rapidly surging inflation by tightening policy, with an interest rate increase in March expected to be followed by hikes at each of the remaining six meetings this year.

FOX Business:

Reacting to U.S. personal consumption rising 5.4% year-over-year in February, Fox News contributor and The King’s College economics professor Brian Brenberg warned the data point is a “flashing red signal” for the economy on “Varney & Co.” Thursday.

Brian Brenberg: It’s a bad number. It’s the worst we’ve seen since 1983. So we’re still in that 40-year high inflation issue… Everybody’s concerned about food and fuel. It’s a bad number. It’s the kind of number where you start to say, is the Fed going to raise by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points? It’s a red flashing signal for an economy that has a lot of them, not a good number.

MacDailyNews Take: Obviously, inflation is an ongoing concern for everyone – and every company – involved in the U.S. economy and declines in consumer electronic sales directly impacts Apple.

‘Tis best to get a handle on inflation, if you know how, while you still can.MacDailyNews, May 11, 2021

Earlier this year, Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy said, “Inflation is 7% — 1% or 2% [in interest rate hikes] doesn’t mean anything. If they really wanted to stop inflation, they would have to raise rates to 4%, 5%, 6%.”

Inflation is repudiation. — Calvin Coolidge

When a business or an individual spends more than it makes, it goes bankrupt. When government does it, it sends you the bill. And when government does it for 40 years, the bill comes in two ways: higher taxes and inflation. Make no mistake about it, inflation is a tax and not by accident. — Ronald Reagan

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22 Comments

    1. Will the price of Spam go down 7% back to where it was after the November elections? Or do we have to wait until 2024 for that (which would really be January 2025, right?)?

    2. Wow. Just wow. Looks like someone actually put in the investigative journalism to prove what we all know all along. There wasn’t wide-spread election fraud. There was very targeted fraud in just those states and counties where it was needed.

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      1. The 65+ lawsuits investigated all the fraud claims. Recounts were performed. There absolutely was a tiny bit of fraud, as always. It was handled by election authorities, was found not to change the election results, and to top it all off, as much Republitard corruption was uncovered as Dumbocrat corruption. We have better things to do than whine about the past.

        Can we discuss Mac News First?!?!?!

  1. This is hardly an appropriate forum to discuss macroeconomics. There are way too many variables in play, and all need to be taken in context. This site loves to cherry pick one indicator in isolation, ignoring all the other indications from the picture. But here goes…

    First of all, what is inflation? It is the sign of a growing economy!!!! Thankfully this time around wage gains are outpacing inflation. Household wealth accumulated from 2 years of remote work provides a substantial buffer against price increases.

    https://asset.barrons.com/dynamic-insets/charts/cdc_c5b22e0595fd30d014cffdc8_embed.html

    The Fed is raising its prime rate to pull back inflation closer to its 2% target. Even if the Fed kept the monetary taps wide open like the past ~ 14 years, inflation would likely taper off on its own as normal trade is resumed and Putin is rebuffed once and for all. Of course that may be many months, way too long for the impatient people here, but the conclusion of Putin’s ill-fated war is all but certain now. Russia just lost the customers it took for granted for its bloody oil. Good riddance. We should be proud the way the western allies are preventing Putin’s war from escalating as they frequently did in the past. Imagine what inflation would be if the USA was sending troops to war right now.

    The people who primarily affected by inflation are retirees on fixed income — those who didn’t invest in stocks, which are still soaring, to fund their retirements. Maybe the people complaining the loudest need more financial guidance?

  2. I always enjoy a long winded reply making immense effort to allay the giant facts of life directly in front: Bidenflation is crushing the poor. He is a perfect representative of his voters…dumb and rich.

        1. It’s the next in line meme from the trump cultists grunt_thinktank since ‘maga!’ and ‘lock her up’ are so boring and toothless. They think everyone else but themselves is a paedophile so…Groomer!

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