What will drive Apple stock this year

How will Apple stock fare throughout the rest of this year? The answer to that question hinges on these seven factors affecting AAPL shares.

Apple Park in Cupertino, California
Apple Park in Cupertino, California

Brad Moon for Kiplinger:

The past year has delivered not just a stock market crash and a broad technology-sector selloff, but a global pandemic that at least temporarily crippled economies worldwide. Through it all, however, Apple barely flinched; Apple stock is up roughly 70% since this time a year ago.

The question for Apple stock holders, of course, is whether their investment reached critical mass, or whether AAPL shares can continue growing in 2021.

These seven factors will have the most say in that.

#1: The Biggest Factor for Apple Stock: The iPhone 12
#2: More AirPods
#3: M1 Macs
#4: Regulatory Challenges
#5: Pushing Services
#6: The iPhone 13
#7: Dark-Horse Products

MacDailyNews Take: Each of the seven oints are fleshed out in the full article which is a good overview of where Apple is today and what to expect for the rest of the year (also, expect some surprises, as usual).

Beloved intern, commence your No.1 duty and Tap That Keg!

Cheers, everyone! 🍻

22 Comments

  1. You are missing the Watch with Continuous Blood Sugar monitoring. The Dexcm G6 appears to me to be the most advanced version of CBM and an Watch more that competed with the G6 costs. I can even see insurance companies providing Watches to patients as long as the patient allows data to be downloaded to company computers.

    1. inflation is rising and by all accounts, it’s expected to continue. The bond market is acting curiously and if the short term yield continues to rise, it’s not a good thing for stocks…esp those that are considered overvalued (like AAPL) and “non-essential”.
      It’s been reported that the US is showing very high levels of saving. Covid brought a dose of financial fear and having reserves compensates for the fear. Saving more is a good thing, imo, but it can slow $$ velocity and, therefore recovery.
      These 3 factors are proposed to affect the econ in various ways…inflation and savings are likely to increase focus on non-discretionary spending…which could impact a portion of Apple’s line-up.
      If the bond yield continues to rise, the impact of the greater econ could be profound, as it can greatly effect the govt’s debt maintenance. The Fed can play with these rates and may have to do so to keep from losing control of debt. How/when the Fed would do this is beyond my understanding, but this factor seems to be the most impactful of the 3.

      Bedwetters here whine when Apple is challenged, but there are many smart analysts noting tech stocks have been on the high wave for yrs and what’s ahead is without the same growth pattern.

      Commodities, energy and consumer staples are in an upturn and it’s expected to continue.

  2. The author, like so many in this arena, is wrong. Apple stock is independent of Apple’s product line.

    Stock Market 101: Wall Street doesn’t control, decide or “set” the price of a stock. Nor does it “reflect” the state of the economy, let alone the state of any company represented.

    For example, the success of Apple (or lack thereof) has no direct effect on the price of Apple’s stock. Rather, when traders are (in general) more interested in selling it than buying it, the price of a stock declines. The opposite is also true.

    If you “Play” the stock market (trade) you quickly discover the only way to make money on a rising stock is to be among the first to buy it (when it is still low). And the only way to avoid losing money on a declining stock is to be among the first to sell it (when it is still high). The net result, folks, is traders don’t watch the company behind the stock. They are watching each other. If a few start selling a stock, the rest rush to sell it, too. If they hear some news (or some analyst’s comments) that they think will cause other traders to react, they will try to be among the first to so react. Thus they become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Investors, on the other hand, are interested in the company. They buy and hold for the long term. For them, it’s a savings account with (hopefully) a better return. But because of this, Investors don’t influence price changes in any way — until and unless they sell.

    Wall Street is not smart, stupid or clueless. People who cry, “They just don’t understand Apple,” don’t understand the market. It’s a mob-mentality, pure & simple. They don’t care about you, me or Apple. They only care about each other and any “skill” they may have is nothing more than the ability to predict what other traders might do before they do it.

    In other words, “traders” are like sheep… If a few suddenly start to run, they all run and in the same direction. Only afterward will “analysts” attempt to figure out why.

    What’s the solution for Apple? Minimize their reliance/exposure to traders. So, you begin share buy-backs and bond issues – with an eye toward reducing your risk (from traders) or perhaps one day eliminating it! (Get out of the stock market and go private. All they’d really need is lots of money to fund themselves! Hmmm.)

    I’ll get off my soap-box, now.

    1. Nice take. I’m a true long-term investor and I don’t watch other investors. I’m only interested in companies for their own merit. I’ll never have the most profits but I’m beating the market by a good margin. Apple is playing it relatively safe and that’s good enough for me. It’s a shame the stock market is more like a gambling casino than a financial tool to support good companies. The worst example would be Gamestop which is absolutely an obvious sham and possibly even BitCoin (although I haven’t figured that one out as of yet).

      1. Gamestop is a functioning company that Melvin Capital attempted to short-sell into oblivion. The counterattack carried out by retail investors was a direct strike at the Wall Street casino, they are the sham. The original poster was too charitable in assuming traders go with the flow, the stock market is the most manipulated and corrupt system on the planet. The Gamestop episode revealed that when trading was halted for retail investors but not the “hedgies” as the latter were taking it in the shorts.

  3. apple robot customers will drive the stock price. That and incredible insane profit margins afforded by slave labor camps hidden behind apple’s manufacturing vendor’s sub contractors.

    1. Perhaps you and all the one-note-johnnies on here can stand on your principles and refrain from posting on this, or any other, Apple-centric site using devices that contain any components that were not manufactured exclusively in the USA. Since there are none, we would not have to keep repeating that Apple is diversifying from China as fast as possible, but cannot perform the impossible by doing so overnight.

      1. “Perhaps you and all the one-note-johnnies on here”

        What, you gave up your title as the numero uno, Apple APOLOGIST and Cook defender “on here”?

        You don’t have “principles” so don’t PREACH you are a lying opportunistic dimwit Democrat promoting a PC agenda who will say anything at anytime.

        You posted for years no other country except China has the scale and workforce in the world to support Apple manufacturing. Now you are changing your tune as Apple is proving you WRONG. Spare me the denials, you are too arrogant and not adult enough to admit you were WRONG.

        That said, your continuing ramped up posts of sanctimonious CONDESCENSION of others is noted and laughable from a person with no credibility, that sticks his finger in the air and follows the wind…

        1. At the time I was posting, it was true. Now other countries have seen a business opportunity and begun creating an infrastructure that can support giga-scale munufacturing. Similarly, Apple and its contractors have been developing assembly techniques that do not require plants employing hundreds of thousands of trained workers. All that took time, which is what I was saying while you were claiming that Apple could bring all its operations stateside overnight.

  4. Estimated iPhone sales, as usual. The more iPhones sold, the giddier analysts and big investors will be. Every product outside of the iPhone Apple makes is considered an iPhone accessory because they all provide supplementary revenue to the iPhone. Apple is still seen as The iPhone Company and not much more.

    To big investors, Apple has become a rather boring company in terms of products. Apple products aren’t seen as exciting enough even though they’re good products. Apple doesn’t have anything that’s a key buzzword on Wall Street. No EV, no cloud business and only a minimal video streaming business. Apple hasn’t invested in any BitCoin. Apple is doing everything that’s safe. All that money is being spent on share buybacks instead of a blockbuster major acquisition. Apple is seen as a snooze to most big investors and people wonder why big institutions aren’t going nuts over Apple. Apple is like Robin while Tesla is like Batman.

    This is how I see it and not some petty complaint against Apple. All companies are not run the same way. Apple appears to be fundamentally sound and relatively diverse with plenty of cash. Apple is still the most valuable company by market cap, so they must be doing something right. Apple will probably end the year with a share price of around $170 to $180 which should be considered fantastic to most investors.

    However, you’ll never, ever see Wall Street’s darling hotshot Cathie Wood buying Apple.

  5. Has anyone heard whether Apple is being affected by the semiconductor shortage? Or has Apple bought enough components well ahead of time? I’m hoping Apple may get preferential treatment due to economies of scale but I don’t know if that’s even possible.

  6. Apple stock will go down at least 40% over the next 18 months as President Biden “transforms” the free market economy to a collectivist/communist economy. “Big money” will flee the stock market as the government begins to seize or “control” businesses and personal fortunes through executive orders and IRS punitive actions. Apple will not be able to buy back enough stock to make up for the “stampede” out of the market by investors who know the disaster that always accompanies socialist/communist economic policies. See Venezuela.

      1. True, but the oligarch billionaire puppet masters know how to wreck an economy and send all the wealth into their foreign accounts. See Bill Gates, Marc Benioff, George Soros, and the Clintons.

  7. Leave it to Trumpists to again divert a discussion into their favorite but losing issues…..will you guys just disappear for a change? Now only 55% of GOPers want him around and that number is dropping rapidly. Pack up girls, time to go home.

    What will drive Apple in the future? Why the Apple car of course?

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