According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo’s worst-case scenario, Apple’s global iPhone sales could decline by 25–30% annually if the company is forced to remove WeChat from its App Stores around the world.
The removal could occur due to a recent executive order from President Trump that seeks to ban U.S. transactions with WeChat and its parent company Tencent.
Because WeChat has become a daily necessity in China, integrating functions such as messaging, payment, e-commerce, social networking, news reading, and productivity, if this is the case, we believe that Apple’s hardware product shipments in the Chinese market will decline significantly. We estimate that the annual iPhone shipments will be revised down by 25–30%, and the annual shipments of other Apple hardware devices, including AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch and Mac, will be revised down by 15–25%. — Ming-Chi Kuo
Under his optimistic scenario in which WeChat is only removed from the U.S. App Store, Kuo predicts global iPhone shipments would be impacted by 3–6% with other Apple products being affected by less than 3%.
Apple does not break down its iPhone shipments by region, but overall, Greater China accounted for a little over 15% of Apple’s total revenue during the June quarter, making it a significant part of Apple’s business.
Kuo recommends that investors reduce their stock holdings of companies in Apple’s supply chain such as LG Innotek and Genius Electronic Optical due to the risks of a WeChat ban.
MacDailyNews Take: Trump’s executive order banning WeChat (and TikTok) goes into effect on September 20th, but there are many outstanding questions and a lot could happen before we start worrying about iPhone sales in China.
Let’s get this clear up front: the Chinese state uses WeChat as a tool to suppress freedom.
https:// http://www.bbc.com/news/amp/blogs-china-blog-48552907
That said, it is also an irreplaceable tool for Americans and third-country nationals (including opponents of the regime) to communicate with anyone inside China, and for those in China to communicate among themselves.
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-china-53686507
In short, this is a complex issue not well served by simplistic solutions.
The BBC is an Establishment propaganda mouthpiece. And even worse,taxpayers fund 75% of its budget.
Great comment. It is a very complex issue.
Apple needs to get out of China ASAP, so the more incentive, the better.
TikTok 12 weeks your Fired Trump…..
Danox, are you an idiot or delusional? I bet both. Get back on your meds.
TikTok 3 months your Fired Trumpet TikTok
If WeChat is allowed on the China app store, I doubt iPhone sales would be significantly affected? I’m comfortable with that.
I’m not sure what this has to do with China. Trump would never be able to manipulate the Chinese App Store, just the American one.. where.. no one cares about WeChat.
Who do you think owns and operates the Apple App Stores in China? If that company has been ordered not to engage in any transactions with Tencent, how does that not affect the Chinese App Store? I hope the Administration will reverse its position, but it is currently pretty clear.
When the CCP allows Facebook, Google, Youtube, Instagram and Snap Chat then we can talk.
The ONLY reason WeChat took the lead as the world most used app is because 1.4 billion people don’t have a choice. I bet things might be different if the people inside of the CCP great firewall had a choice.
Look at Hong Kong where they still have freedom (for now) WeChat number 3
Whats App
Facebook
WeChat
In Taiwan
1. Line
2. Facebook
3. Messenger
4. Zenly
5. WeChat
The only reason WeChat is number one is because ……
So why again should we allow the CCP apps to be in our market but we are banned in their country ?
https://www.similarweb.com/apps/top/apple/store-rank/hk/social-networking/top-free/iphone/
If banned, Wechat will just make a web version. Problem solved, end of story.
Not quite end of story. A web app would likely be even less secure and more invasive than an iOS native app, so the next US move would be to require American ISPs to block the web site. That, in turn, would establish the precedent that the government can block sites it disapproves of. Slippery slope.