Apple’s iPhone X event: What the analysts are saying

“Excerpts from the analysts’ notes I’ve seen,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt writes for Apple 3.0. “More as they come in, newest on top.”

A couple samples:

• Gene Munster, Loup Ventures: Raising Apple Watch Unit Growth In FY18 To 59% From 9%. With the introduction of LTE to the Apple Watch Series 3, as well as reduced price of the Series 1, we have become meaningfully more bullish on demand for these products. Near term, we have increased our unit assumption from 3.5M to 5.1M, implying 60% y/y growth. Looking longer term, we believe this announcement will add ~10M incremental Apple Watch units in 2018, implying Apple Watch sales grow 59% y/y to 26M in FY18. Due to the reduced price of the Series 1 we have lowered our Apple Watch ASP to imply flat y/y growth in FY18, but due to the higher expected sales we are now modeling the company to record $11.7B (4% of sales) Apple Watch sales in 2018.

• Mark Hibben, Rethink Technology: Apple’s Breakthrough 3D Sensor Technology. I’ve never seen the company introduce so much new tech in one event before: the 3D sensor for iPhone X, LTE connectivity in Apple Watch Series 3 (without changing the form factor), and a new A11 Bionic processor with a special Neural Engine for machine learning… Although many complain that Apple just adopts other companies’ technology, it showed with the September 12 event that it could genuinely lead in technology development. Investors shouldn’t let themselves become distracted by whimsical Animojis. No other smartphone in the world has the TrueDepth sensor. Apple is bringing its very substantial resources to bear to solve real problems and gain technological advantage. Buy.

Tim Bajarin, Creative Strategies: Apple Watch Series 3: Observations. With the inclusion of an LTE modem, the Apple Watch, which is now the #1 smartwatch on the market regarding units and revenue, Apple takes their wearable up a big notch and makes it even smarter in its right. It has a new dual core CPU that is 70% faster than the last series and Apple delivers an ingenious way to use the screen itself for the radio’s antenna, making it one of the most innovative smart watches on the market bar none.

Tons more in the full article – recommendedhere.

MacDailyNews Take: The question is how long the average Joe and Jane (who will miss the thirty-second pre-order window) will have to wait for the iPhone X they want to buy to hit Apple Store shelves, virtual and physical?

The iPhone X supply-demand imbalance might make the Apple Watch launch look well-stocked.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Dan K.” for the heads up.]


  1. Hmmm MDN’s link doesn’t work, Fire someone, do it now.

    As for iPhone X availability, until 10.27 comes along, no one will have a clue as to whether you’ll be waiting days or weeks for your iPhone X, the extra time will allow Apple to increase the inventory, and perhaps get a better feel for pre-orders based on iPhone 8 deliveries.

    Time will tell.. always does

  2. iPhone X is for the fanboys and tech freaks (me, specifically). The average consumer is not looking for that device. The only problem is all the media and hype is saying Apple’s new phones are $1000 when they’re really more akin to their traditional price. Hopefully users in store will determine the incredible value in the iPhone 8 and not look at it like it’s an old product. It’s hard to convince someone to settle for an 8 when a 10 is available. Major marketing blunder. Should’ve called it the iPhone edition. What happens when we get to iPhone 10?? I’m assuming that’ll be sooner now are done with ‘S’ years (I hope).

    1. It’s almost time for them to drop the numbering, going into 11, 12, 13 would be lame. Perhaps iPhone 9 and Edition next year and something new in 2019? iPhone Air/iPhone Plus/iPhone Pro? It’d be helpful as a differentiator for different market segments, currently it’s hierarchical so unless you get the X you feel it’s an inferior product, instead of something that might be perfectly suited to your needs.

  3. Leo Laporte was not impressed ! Nothing special here according to Leo. Samsung has done it all before.
    How many times has he lambasted a new I-phone?
    Of course, he always gets it wrong! Please Apple don’t ever invite that pompous cretin to your new HQ.

    1. Sorry Leo that you where not impressed. Yep, full screen vs. full screen, charging vs charging. I invite you to go a little deeper Leo. Maybe one of your guests on your many shows can help you. You keep your Samsung close to your heart and I’ll keep my 8 or 10, still deciding, close to mine and we’ll both be happy. PS I don’t want you buying a new iPhone under the guise that you had to for your shows. Let others who really want one have it.

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