3 things that could knock down Apple’s share price

“Apple stock has had a great run year to date, with shares surging about 38% in that time,” Ashraf Eassa writes for The Motley Fool. “The company’s stock has handily outperformed both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq, which is an incredibly impressive feat given how large Apple’s market capitalization is.”

“It’s always important, though, to understand the factors that can push a company’s stock lower. Having such an understanding isn’t just for short-sellers keeping an eye out for potential catalysts,” Eassa writes. “It’s also critical for those bullish on a stock to understand these factors for risk-management purposes.”

Here are three things that could knock Apple stock down.
1. What if iPhone 8 doesn’t live up to expectations?
2. What if the services biz slows down?
3. What if Apple misjudges iPhone mix?

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: We’d be most concerned about #3, as Apple has misjudged the mix before, as seen with the iPhone 7 Plus which had much higher demand than Apple expected, resulting in prolonged shortages. Of course they’ve likely learned a lesson from that, too, which thereby mitigates our concern.

Apple is not going to screw up their 10th anniversary iPhone and the services business is the closest thing to a perpetual motion machine – and perpetually growing – as we’re likely to ever see.


    1. There are only TWO things that will impact AAPL (positively or negatively). Those things are micro (under Apple’s control) and macro (not under Apple’s control). Eassa’s list are all micro issues.

      Macro issues are black swans that impact markets and are unforeseen.

      Micro issues on the other hand are telegraphed by management’s quarterly guidance. As such the astute observer of Apple can position himself/herself to benefit from being forewarned four times each year. Additionally, WS, having access to information the average trader does not, will increase buying/selling BEFORE guidance is given, so watching the strength in AAPL (combined with trading volume) can provide an important clue about future prospects for AAPL.

      Further, of 35 WS analysts 17 have upgraded their AAPL price targets since August 1 earnings report. Nobody (not even the Bears) have downgraded AAPL.

      There has been no indication that AAPL’s rise of the last year is going to come to an end any time soon, ergo, Eassa’s piece is nothing more than bait to the Motley Fool site where, hopefully, you become a paid subscriber.

  1. I don’t see a backlog of $1000 phones, unless Apple artificially creates one.

    Their going to need carrier help to peddle a $1000 phone. Which they did to sell $500 phones.

    1. You do know the current 128GB is $869 and the 256GB is $969 for the 7 Plus? Of course carriers will help. They will be more than happy to spread it over the next 12 months at $84 per month.

  2. Why do they always pick Apple for these ‘what if’ stories? Practically every single stock on the planet can have a ‘what if’ scenario. Name any company and there are ‘what if’ situations just around the corner.

    Why didn’t this dude pick Boeing which has handily outperformed Apple in share price gains over the same period? No, I’m sure there’s some reason Boeing has plenty of room left to run and nothing can possibly go wrong to make the share price fall. Why should shareholders bail on Apple faster than any other stock? They’re still going to get their dividends even if the stock goes down a bit.

    I’m always hearing about the Yellowstone super volcano blowing. I’m sure that could throw a kink into a lot of companies if it happens. I’m sure some Wall Street genius will think of a way where it mainly or only affects Apple.

    1. I would imaging Apple being so visible would be one good reason it is constantly picked for ‘what-if’ situations. Self-fulfilling since once there is critical mass in articles, it literally feeds itself.

      Being such a ‘rich’ company sure helps in that regard as well as being a company with so many of its devices in consumer hands equating to greater mindshare vs Boeing. Along that line if Apple is affected it may ‘touch’ a whole lot more people than Boeing.

      Being ‘closest’ to arriving at $1T valuation also makes Apple a convenient ‘nail’ that sticks out. Lots of reasons for the media ‘picking’ Apple if you think about it.

      1. A calculated guess here, but I presume that Boeing in its present state is far more relevant and buoyed up on its military work these days and I can’t see those macro effects changing that any time soon what with ballistic missiles flying over Japan. Apple of course being predominantly a consumer led company (plus increasingly general business) is far more interesting to them as an entity in its own right and as an indicator for general business/economic trends on a world wide scale rather than political and military world wide trends.

        1. Air distance from San Diego to Pyongyang is
          6078.7 Miles (9782.7 Kilometers / 5278.7 Nautical Miles).

          Approximate travel time from San Diego, California to Pyongyang, North Korea is: 12 hrs, 37 mins.

        2. Then that would be an act of war and I would expect our government and military to respond appropriately.

          I can sign you up for some civics or history lessons if you are having trouble understanding things, doctor?

  3. I swear people have been doing the “what if” that would end Apple since the start of Apple. Cool, let’s play. What if….. there’s a tax holiday and Apple gets to bring $250 Billion back to the US. What if…..the iPhone 8 sets new record sales……

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