“UBS’ Apple analyst, Steve Milunovich, uses Google search data from over 20 countries to estimate iPhone demand. While he used information starting in the December 2008 quarter to develop his model, he has been publishing the Evidence Lab estimates since the December 2014 quarter,” Chuck Jones writes for Forbes. “In his latest survey it is indicating demand for 62.9 million iPhones, which is significantly above the 50 to 52 million the Street is projecting.”
“The Street, or average sell-side analysts estimates, projects Apple’s March quarter revenue to come in at $52 billion vs. the company’s guidance of $50 to $53 billion. To get to the mid-point of guidance the company will need to sell 50.5 million iPhones and to get to the Street’s $52 billion it will need to sell about 52 million when paired with reasonable estimates for Macs, iPads, Watches and Services,” Jones writes. “At 62.9 million iPhones Apple’s revenue would be over $60 billion, significantly above guidance and expectations.”
“Except for the first quarter that Milunovich published his estimate (December 2014) the initial Evidence Lab’s projection has been too high. I’ve used Apple’s iPhone sales adjusted for channel inventory and for the past four quarters the Lab’s estimate has ranged from being 3 to 7.8 million too high,” Jones writes. “On a percentage basis it has been 4.9% to 16.8% too high. If you modify the 62.9 million survey result by these percentages the ‘true demand’ would be between 52.3 million and 59.8 million.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: If Apple could bang out stellar iPhone numbers during this quarter’s especially “tough compare,” the rest of Apple’s fiscal year could be quite strong indeed.