“Earlier this week, Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry put out a research note all about Apple’s new Apple Watch,” Evan Niu writes for The Motley Fool. “He believes that Apple Watch will generate $23 billion in revenue during fiscal 2016, followed by $36 billion in revenue during fiscal 2017. For what it’s worth, Chowdhry believes that Apple Watch revenue in fiscal 2015 was approximately $4 billion.”
“For some perspective, the iPad generated a total of $23.2 billion in revenue in fiscal 2015, and Apple’s tablet business has been contracting over the past couple of years as the upgrade cycle is still unclear,” Niu writes. “iPad revenue was down 23% for the full year, and could conceivably continue that trend in fiscal 2016. If Chowdhry’s prediction proves accurate, Apple Watch would quickly overtake the iPad in terms of revenue, and could even give the Mac a run for its iMoney.”
“But frankly, I think these estimates are a little bit too high. Chowdhry is modeling for 43 million Apple Watch units in fiscal 2016 at an average selling price of $530. He then expects Apple to sell 68 million units the following fiscal year with ASPs holding steady,” Niu writes. “Selling 43 million units sounds extremely optimistic when there are simply too many unknowns at this point.”
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MacDailyNews Take: Take all Apple Watch estimates with much salt. Niu is correct, there are too many unknowns: How often will Apple Watch hardware be updated, will pricing be changed, will a killer app spring forth and when, will more major retailers hop aboard, etc.