Morgan Stanley ups iPhone estimates, Apple price target

“Morgan Stanley’s Apple analyst, Katy Huberty, increased her fiscal 2016 iPhone unit growth rate from 3% to 7% and can see a realistic upside to 12%,” Chuck Jones writes for Forbes. “She also increased her price target TGT +0.37% from $155 to $162 based on a fiscal 2016 EPS estimate of $10.52 (up from $10.29).”

“Morgan Stanley’s latest AlphaWise survey indicates an accelerated upgrade cycle for Apple’s iPhone in both the US (minor uptick from 58% to 60%) and China (large increase from 49% to 74%),” Jones writes. “The survey also shows that iPhone loyalty is at all time highs of 93% in the US (which is close to Kantar’s 87% data) and 80% in China (up from 75%).”

“The AlphaWise survey points to replacement cycles shortening and this is even before the US carriers have fully moved away from the subsidy model and Apple’s Upgrade Program has been implemented,” Jones writes. “The results indicate a 9 percentage point increase from 29% to 38% of respondents planning to upgrade in the next year in the US and for China the shift is from 69% to 75%. ”

Much more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: There’s a lot of good news for Apple and, consequently, bad news for handset makers not named Apple in Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise survey.

9 Comments

  1. What a lot of naysayer analysts and big investors don’t get is that iPhone has won the smart phone wars.
    Taking practically all the profit (90+ % ) means they have sucked all the air out of the competition. Rivals can longer match Apple’s R&D, Quality or Production advantages.

    R&D: Apple is able is do things like buy smaller tech companies for tech like FingerPrint sensors, build their own chips etc. Apple’s A9 is way faster in single processing tasks as their competitors. Generic chip makers have no incentive to make really fast high end chips because there’s not much of a market for them : most android phone makers want CHEAP processors not the fastest like Apple. They just try to cobble on more cores (which is not very effective as few Phone apps use multicore processing).

    Quality: as they make no profit Android phone makers will start to scrimp on quality. for example they might try to keep appearances like ‘keep the megapixel count for cameras high’ but actually have inferior cameras (fuzzy, bad in low light etc). And they scrimp on maintenance like not giving out software updates.

    Production : because Apple makes so many phones and has so much money they can get deals for components and manufacturing and get better margins (hence the giant profits).

    ETC.

    the phone problems analysts and big investors are worried about when they see ‘market share’ or ‘slowing demand’ is an illusion for Apple.

    1. Read before posting opinions that only reflect market numbers and companies expectations and marketing notes.

      iPhone has not won any war. Blackberry is and will be 1st choice for Washington for many years to come.

      Smartphones have in general become the backdoor to our mind, unfortunately because we put a little too much trust in technology, just like the Prometheus Complex will explain.

      Not only do we depend on technology that keeps us from harm by “coincidently” betraying us (well the chinese did it!) , which is proven to be true since iOS 8, Apple Music and of course the iCloud.

      You just check the changes concerning Terms of use since iOS 6 and Mavericks. Scary? Well just tale your time for the comparison and you see what  turned into.

       in fact did not turn his back on consumers years ago at all,  became the biggest tech con in history by following the rules of Wall Street.
      Fact is they need to compare to others in terms of stock price, that puts Apple in that position of serving investors instead of customers. Just FACTS, no excuses until this mark.

      http://www.wired.com/2015/10/cops-dont-need-encryption-backdoor-to-hack-iphones/

      , this is your very own historic call now !
      –> Proof that we can rely on your technology to become the standard supplier of silicon and software within our future devices, like phones and cars and garage, everything home and banking and maybe fucking too?

      This is outrageous, not in a good way, because Wall Street now has that greedy hand in your pocket, it is your iPhone.

      That is the reason why SONY might sell its phone business in the near future. They only do not make enough money on their phones because of Apple, no word about the “wrong” OS they used, but maybe the Russians will buy SONY and … you will see where this blind politics of scale (economies of scale allegory) become reallydickless.

      Think and beware of just posting foreign opinions, just because it is so convenient.

      The hackers won’t stop because of Wall Street.
      They are all in ONLY because of “ is fucked by Wall Street”, and they have awesome skills.

      1. sorry dude, I really have no clue what you are talking about.

        “Phone has not won any war. Blackberry is and will be 1st choice for Washington for many years to come.”

        Blackberry?
        they just announced their results in Sept. Revenue is down another 46%.
        They declared a net income of 51 m (but adjusted for other expenses they have a loss of 66 million).

        51 m vs :
        last quarter Apple had a net profit of 10,700 million.

        (Apple paid Angela Ahrendts about 70 million in salary last year! )

        Since John Chen took over BB they have fired thousands of employees and that is continuing.

        Eh, maybe you think a company that makes 50 m (or losses money if you add expenses) vs a company that regularly makes 10,000 m a quarter is ‘winning’, I don’t.

        the rest of your post is incoherent, I can’t make heads or tails of it. sorry.

  2. I remember a time long ago when a raised price target or buy rating used to lift Apple stock to at least some degree. Now, even a healthy raise of a price target sends Apple lower. Honestly, what good does any analyst rating do for Apple. If targets are lowered, it will send Apple stock price plummeting. If targets are raised, it sends Apple’s share price down a bit. Stocks like Amazon, Google or Microsoft gets an upgrade and the stocks soar. It’s as though Apple doesn’t perform like any other stock on positive ratings. Only negative ratings affect Apple. And then day after day some reports telling how Apple is failing in some way or another without any real proof. It’s just creepy.

  3. The media drives Apple stock . Consumers love their products . AAPL is a day trader device . Goal is knock down with all neg news . Then a few days later all news will be great … Sucks to own the stock but I love my Mac and iPhone

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