The Apple trade is officially over or something

“The Apple trade is officially over,” Thomas H. Kee Jr. writes for MarketWatch. “Before I start, to all the diehard Apple fans out there, yes, AAPL is still a good company, their products are great, I personally love my Macbook Pro, and although they are in a very fickle industry, it is impressive that they have been able to do what they have done. But good companies see stock prices fall, too.”

“There is also a coincidence between the AAPL trade and the shift in the psychology of the market, and ultimately that may, as simple as it sounds, be the reason the AAPL trade is over,” Kee Jr. writes. “We do not have free-flowing liquidity anymore, in fact we are now officially in a liquidity crisis, and the obvious flow of money into Apple is no longer there as it was before. In years past, any time money came into the market, it naturally came to Apple… Well, those days are over, and that constant bid in AAPL can no longer be depended upon.”

“The psychology of the market and the obvious shifts in liquidity have caused the Apple trade to change,” Kee Jr. writes. “Investors should not expect money to be there to pick up the pieces anymore.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Sounds familiar for some reason. Oh, iCal?

Nothing in Apple’s arsenal is compelling enough to command multiples as high as recent growth rates… [If] you own AAPL and you are expecting the company to grow like it has in the past, you are sorely mistaken. Apple is not what it was… Apple is a sell. — Thomas H. Kee Jr., January 12, 2012

On January 12, 2012, Apple shares closed at a split-adjusted price of $56.29.


  1. So why bullish on Apple (AAPL)?
    Their colleague Simona Jankowski sees 50% upside to Apple’s shares in the next year due to “meaningful upside” to fiscal 2016 estimates. She expects Apple to outperform in iPhone units—in stark contrast to much of Wall Street, which appears to think that the iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus won’t do well this year. She also expects a strong iPad cycle and believes that upward estimate revisions will boost Apple shares higher.

    She also mentioned a recent survey which indicated that the iPad is at the top of the list in terms of consumer electronics products people want to buy during the holiday season. Goldman Sachs discovered that 16% of respondents are planning to buy one this year. This is interesting in light of the fact that Apple has been battling steadily declining iPad sales over the last several quarters. The company unveiled the 12.9-inch iPad Pro last month, and most analysts agree that the tablet – laptop hybrid will likely boost tablet sales for Apple.

  2. I agree that people are manipulating aapl as apple is so popular that FUD to manipulate the stock is instantly disseminated by the press

    THAT said, as an aapl investor
    I want Apple , the entire corporation to DO AN EL CAPITAN.

    Apple is running so fast now that cracks are happening all over and hurting it, and worrying big investors.

    Just a FEW of many examples:

    — Apple Music, one of the big NEW T.C things, only at the END of the initial free period are they releasing tutorials on how to navigate the interface (the ‘Guided Tours’ ). Now forever A. Music is going to be tarred with ‘difficult to navigate’ like Maps was tarred by it’s launch. Hundreds of millions in R&D and other work and they couldn’t make videos before ?

    Apple Music would have got and retained a lot more paid subscribers if they had paid attention to details. (see what I mean by El Capitan everybody?). Now it’s seen by big investors as a ‘flop’.

    Example 2
    – The Apple Watch. another New Platform and Again a flubbed launch. What was the Apr 24 launch date all about? When shoppers and the press were completely confused … Apple PR / Marketing was SILENT. No smoothing over or explaining whatsoever. (I was waiting for PR to say something but Instead PR released released a Video on San Francisco Gay Parade. I’ve got nothing against gays but just stating the facts .. Apple or PR at least seems to have lost it’s BUSINESS focus)

    – and today A Zdnet senior writer who wanted to buy an iPhone suffered 4 plus hours of horror at an Apple store even with an appointment and wrote a really critically story about it. He has some points like the Apple Store staff used iPHONES to handle the complicated details instead of Macs or even (bigger screen) iPADS which slowed everything down. ETC.
    (before people flame me go read his article ).

    I won’t even go into detail all the flubs and problems with software from Cloud to Yosemite (now fixed with El Cap) etc. PR were missing from smoothening many irate customers queries on those as well.

    Some big investors have said they won’t buy aapl because it’s a ‘one product iPhone company’, Apple like I pointed out flubbed its TWO BIG NEW INITIATIVES Apple Watch and Apple Music launches (maybe they can recover) but also they do NOT advertise their other big platform Macs. No Mac ads in spite of new thinner more powerful machines and new advances like thunderbolt, Force Touch pads etc. Bizarre as macs are more profitable than Dell, Lenovo or Acer.

    another thing , TC has spent 140 billion bucks on buybacks (and people gripe about 3 b on Beats!) with zero results. 140 b is larger than most S&P companies, it’s THREE TIMES bigger than Tesla ! and yet T.C has said nothing about it (why the strategy failed). . Investors are concerned, not just because of the spend but T.C’s handling of it and his silence.

    I’m an Apple fan and Apple is STILL outperforming it’s rivals. But with apple we expect more. Big investors already prejudiced with Apple in the past are not being re assured.

    So Apple get back your focus until you’ve got your quality (especially marketing) back up. Do an entire corporate El Capitan.

    I understand that Apple fans are going to one star me reflexively because I’m criticizing Apple but please READ carefully before just hammering me. I’m an Apple user and aapl investor, I just want apple to hear justified criticisms and fix it’s stuff.

    1. Wow, Davewrite, you hit the nail on so many points that it’s surprising how much you misread the critical-thinking skills of MDN commenters. I gave you 5 stars, anyway, since I figured your meta-comment was a bit of a throwaway. 🙂

      You (and others here) prove wrong the idea that fans of Apple products are mindless supporters. Just the opposite: people who love Apple products REALLY want to yell at Apple when they screw something up, because it affects us more.

  3. The shift in liquidity that the analyst feels is not a stock market trend, but the pee running down his leg as he realises his own bets are not panning out and he’d better say something quick to scare investors off.

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