Why there won’t be an iPhone 6s/Plus bump

“There’s the theory out there, sometimes repeated in Apple article comments, that the iPhone 6s will be favored by the iPhone 5s bump. This is based on iPhone 5s users coming off contract and finally being able to upgrade to the iPhone 6s,” Paulo Santos writes for Seeking Alpha. “No such bump is to be expected [by me].”

“The larger display was the main selling point of the iPhone 6. There was certainly massive pent-up demand for a larger Apple smartphone, as Android had larger displays for years. That pent-up demand exhausted itself when Apple launched the iPhone 6,” Santos writes. “Indeed, it’s likely that the iPhone 6 got more upgraders from the previous generation than any time before, so more people probably already upgraded from the iPhone 5s than one would expect.”

“The iPhone 6s will provide rather limited new features. It’s bound to have a faster SoC, it will finally have a higher-resolution camera and it will include Force Touch,” Santos writes. “The faster SoC and Force Touch should either be rather imperceptible ((SoC)) or a gimmick (Force Touch). In short, these aren’t the kind of features which drive a massive migration like the large display did.”

“Finally, and this is the most important point, the iPhone 5s did not make for a huge jump in unit sales itself,” Santos writes. “This, together with the fact that it’s likely more 5s users than usual already went for the larger display on the iPhone 6, means there’s no much-increased base [from which] to draw upgraders. That said, this isn’t necessarily a large negative. Why? Because it looks like the market already expects it in a way… An Apple investor would do well to be conservative in his buying/holding of the stock. It’s likely that he’ll get a lot of chances to buy lower.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Only some 27% of iPhone users so far have upgraded to iPhone 6/Plus. And, the only people who think Force Touch is a “gimmick” are those who’ve never really used an Apple Force Touch device.

Apple makes the arrogant assumption of thinking that it knows what you want and need. It, unfortunately, leaves the “why” out of the equation — as in “why would I want this?” The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a “mouse.” There is no evidence that people want to use these things. I don’t want one of these newfangled devices. — John C. Dvorak, 1984

Apple’s Force Touch: The future of mobile interfaces – August 4, 2015
Why Force Touch on the iPhone will be awesome – July 29, 2015
Apple’s Force Touch iPhone 6s to be major differentiator, put rivals at further disadvantage – July 6, 2015
Apple assemblers begin making next-gen iPhones with Force Touch – June 27, 2015
Analyst: Apple’s ‘iPhone 6s’ to feature stronger 7000 series aluminum, slightly thicker for Force Touch – June 17, 2015
Apple’s new Force Touch patent application reveals stylus, virtual paint brush, 3D buttons interactions – May 28, 2015
Apple’s forthcoming iOS 9 supports ‘iPhone 6s’ Force Touch – May 26, 2015
Apple patent application reveals work on Force Touch for iOS devices and more – March 5, 2015
Force Touch rumored to arrive exclusively on ‘iPhone 6s Plus’ – April 2, 2015
Apple’s next-gen iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus to feature Force Touch – February 28, 2015


  1. No, most of the big increase in sales for iPhone 6 and 6 Plus came from Android users switching. They were putting up with Android just to have a larger screen, but craved iPhone. THAT was the “pent up demand” being fulfilled, NOT iPhone 5S owners upgrading early. More evidence… Samsung’s fall coincides with iPhone 6 and 6 Plus release; Apple stole those former Samsung customers.

    Plus, there’s China… 🙂

    1. You make the mistake in attributing fundamental strength and success with a concomitant rise in share price. This is not the case. Just like this drop in AAPL share price has nothing to do with fundamental weakness in the business- because currently there is only profound revenue and earnings growth, not weakness.

  2. The feature that will drive upgraders who are at the end of their contracts is Apple Pay. 5s can’t do it, no nfc. 5s users who didn’t buy an Apple Watch have been on the sidelines of this new capability.

    1. So that can be also be taken to mean that of those 5s owners that chose not to buy an Apple Watch a good percentage did not feel Apple Pay necessary for themselves and may not contribute to 6s sales…

      1. Not really. For most users their iPhone isn’t a luxury. The question is will I gent new functionality in exchange for buying the new phone. While I’m sure it is Apple’s marketing goal to get buyers to consider the Apple Watch a necessity, they are not there yet. Too many potential Apple Watch purchasers have been bitten by “next versionitis” mostly inspired by FUD from competitors (wait for new version in Sept. The OS will see updates but no new hardware-a camera? please!)

  3. Even with the latest “correction” I’m still long on Apple with just under seven figures in current value. I’ve been long on Apple since shortly after Jobs came back.

    I’m not into AAPL for the money (though the nearly 100x increase over that time is nice). It’s the principle.

    When people advised me to get into Microsoft in the late 80s and early 90s I refused on principle. Their business practices did not sit well with me. (Apple’s dealings are nothing compared to some of the backroom deals Microsoft did in the 80s and 90s. Remember the NASA CTO deal? Remember the U.S. Navy CTO deal?)

    In the early 2000s people advised me to buy Dell, and I refused on principle. Dell was THE champion of the race to the bottom, and I will NEVER support that concept. In the long run the race to the bottom hurts everyone: consumers and companies alike.

    My current, most general problem with Apple is the change in overall attitude that Cook is putting forth.

    Jobs believed that the whole point of Apple was to make truly fantastic products that would change people’s lives for the better. This would in turn get people to buy them. Which would, in the end, make Apple a great company. To hell with Wall Street. The stock will rise or fall based purely on great products and sales or the lack thereof.

    Cook has turned this on its head.

    Cook believes he needs to make Apple a great company (which occasionally includes sucking up to Wall Street). The great company would create great products. Then people will want to buy those great products. Which in the end reinforces the action of making Apple a great company.

    Cook’s reasoning has a difficulty in the second step and is, overall, circular. Further, the stock value is based virtually 100% on what people perceive of THE COMPANY, not on products or sales.

    I prefer Steve Jobs’ linear thinking. Make absolutely fantastic products, and the rest will fall into place.

  4. Most, if not ALL of iPhone 5S owners I know (including 6 family members) are still under subsidized contracts. They are looking forward to buying a new iPhone once their contract expires and they then qualify for a new, lower, unsubsidized, no term agreement with their carrier. In the case of Sprint, Sprint will finance the new phone, INTEREST FREE, for up to 24 months. Having done the math, they will see their total monthly expense go down.

  5. I am not obligated to purchase a new Apple product whenever it becomes available. Just because it comes with an Apple logo is not reason enough to make a purchase. As much as I do not mind giving Apple money, I have to consider my own finances as well. I also have to consider the value, performance, and function of the product.

  6. I’m using an iPhone 5. Not the 5s. I came off contract in January. I’m waiting for the 6s. Perhaps I’m an outlier, but I think the user upgrade cycle is more complicated than this article makes it out to be. Also, carrier contracts now create incentives to upgrade phones annually, so each new cycle has the 2 year upgrade wave, plus delayed upgraders like me, plus annual upgraders.

    1. As you are someone with 3 years since your last upgrade/purchase I don’t think it would be unusual to have others on longer upgrade cycles in addition to shorter ones due to new carrier incentives. The smartphone market has matured some since 2007 with practically all international markets covered.. As such I don’t feel large percentage increases in sales of any smartphone is really possible.

  7. From the article: “so more people probably already upgraded from the iPhone 5s than one would expect.”

    This is the dumbest thing I’ve ever read. Out of all possible products, mobile phone usage is the one where you don’t have to guess at consumer usage or behavior. As phones are registered with carriers, Apple and the carriers know exactly who has upgraded and who is still using an older phone, along with when those users are eligible for upgrades.

    If Apple or the carriers have ever mentioned the upgrade numbers in their financial reports or press releases (and I believe they have), those numbers have to be correct or they will have a problem with the SEC.

    1. Though I imagine you could glean the upgraders from carrier data I doubt the SEC/FCC or any other government body has any interest in carriers keeping track of or ignoring the number of upgraded devices. Dual SIM phones probably throw off numbers too..

  8. “No such bump is to be expected [by me].”

    fud fud fud fud
    Fud Fud Fud Fud

    Ridiculous. 😛 This comes off as merely more AAPL manipulation. IOW: Watch for a whopping ‘bump’ when an actual ‘correction’ occurs. Silly WallNut Street. (O_o)

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