Why Apple is so volatile

“‘If you’re wondering why the stock is volatile,’ tweeted Andreessen Horowitz’ Benedict Evans late last night, ‘this is everything you need to know,'” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“What Evans offers his 82,000 followers is the attached roller-coaster chart of Apple’s 12-month trailing revenue growth from September 2004 to July 2015,” P.E.D. reports. “It’s a picture of the rate at which Apple has been able to grow its business over the past decade or so.”

P.E.D. reports, “‘Interesting it follows a pattern,’ wrote one of Evans’ Twitter followers. ‘It’s not ‘chaotic.””

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Because you can make a lot more money off a stock that rollercoasters versus rises according to performance. If Apple were actually rewarded for their performance, the company would have exceeded a trillion-dollar market value by now. There’s a lot of money to be made by successfully creating “concerns” and “doubts” about Apple where there are, in actuality, none of which to speak.

In the last four quarters alone, Apple has posted revenue of $224.33 billion dollars. That’s right around the current market value of Walmart.

Anyone feigning “concern” about Apple Inc. is either crazy or crazy like a fox.

17 Comments

  1. The most recent dip broke support and the latest trend upward seems to be leveling off in line with the March ’08 peak. Hopefully something in the pipeline will get things moving again.

    1. 2 year stock chart on my iPhone does NOT show unusual moves.

      Apple’s recent 4-5 month period of effectively no share price growth, similar to an early 2014 period.

      Big difference between traders and holders.

  2. Here’s an idea, Apple could build a frigging computer that business could buy and use, with PCI Express slots for GPUs and SSDs and network adapters.

    Or, license OS X for all modern motherboards and chipsets and wipe out Windows.

    1. The small company I work for uses less than 100 desktop PCs. They buy refurbished Dell computers when possible to save on costs, and have recently been upgrading (lol) to these with Windows 7.

      For the most part it works out, and I can guarantee you that they would not want to spend the money it would take for Macs, even refurbs. There are a lot of small companies and business owners who either can’t or won’t spend more on this if they don’t need to, and that doesn’t take into consideration the software they may use that isn’t compatible with Apple’s OS.

      I think we will have Windows for some time to come.

      1. Many company owners have exceeded their level of understanding. They see cheap computers that can work but do not want to look into the TCO. So they go cheap and write off any expenses like training, re-training, cleaning viruses , ignoring ID theft. etc.

        They feel smart and are happy. end of story. 🙁

  3. I don’t understand all of this stuff, but as it progresses through time doesn’t the overall value of the company increase? So that with time the percentage may be lower but the actual monetary amount can be larger. Wouldn’t it stand to reason that at some point they simply couldn’t attain a growth over 70% again, at least in a short period. If I’m off on this please explain.

  4. Isn’t the chart really a demonstration of the volatility of Apple’s stock price rather than an exploration of the volatility? The explanation is complicated: it relates to the so called “Law of Large Numbers” (if revenue kept growing at a 70% rate as it did in 2005 it would’ve sucked up all the money in the world by now; also a 70% increase in revenue in 2005 is much less than 30% increase in 2015) and the difference between traders and investors. Investors generally buy and hold; traders are leaches that profit from movement in the stock either up or down; they will react to even small factors that could effect the price of a stock to reap short term gains and their activity tends to exaggerate the effect on the stock price. Investors, like myself need to focus on the fundamentals in evaluating when, (if ever!) to sell.

    1. There was an article I’d read saying Apple was collaborating on allowing the share price to be knocked down so it could get more bang on repurchasing shares. I don’t know if that’s true but it’s something to think about. Otherwise, I don’t know why Apple would allow there to be so many lies spread against the company.

      Aren’t publicity departments assigned to do damage control. I’m sure there are other companies who fight against verbal attacks that are outright lies. Why should only Apple be so susceptible to such attacks? Do you think Boeing would put up with articles saying there are cracks in their aircraft’s wings or fuel leakage problems when it wasn’t true? People should be prosecuted or sued for printing outright lies.

  5. There is a saying for this. “Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure. ”
    Parts of the Apple stock price are there for a reason (great products,etc) and part is there cause people who can want to make money quickly on any stock.

    Since Apple is so resilient, you just sell high and find a reason to knock it down. When down, you buy. It springs back up and you sell. Simple money rules 101.
    But to keep from being caught by the SEC you have to use different means of knocking it down.

  6. All it would take to wipe out flash trading is a small tax on transactions, as they have in China. The SEC was created to stop wash trading, which was the practice of buying to increase a stock value, sucking in followers, then selling out fast, creating a wave of buying and selling, thus creating a figurative wash (of water). The flash traders are doing exactly that with computer algorithms, and the SEC is letting it happen. There has to be influence peddling at work, to put it kindly.

  7. “There’s a lot of money to be made by successfully creating “concerns” and “doubts” about Apple where there are, in actuality, none of which to speak.”
    Isn’t that called stock manipulation, a criminal act, that the SEC is supposed to enforce?

  8. Apple is a victim of its own idiocy. Stop giving iPhone and iPad sales numbers. This information is used by traders and stock manipulators to bring Apple stock down. Also stop providing guidance. Google does none of this and its stock soars all the time. Apple should give only three figures–sales, profits, margins, and nothing else. Nothing else is required by SEC.

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