Analyst: ‘Anecdotal evidence suggests Apple Watch demand is slowing quickly’

“The iPhone continues to be the breadwinner in the Apple Inc. ecosystem, but Pacific Crest analysts cited evidence on Wednesday that suggests Apple Watch demand is slowing,” Jennifer Booton reports for MarketWatch.

“‘Anecdotal evidence suggests Apple Watch demand is slowing quickly,’ said Pacific Crest’s Andy Hargreaves,” Booton reports. “The brokerage reduced its fiscal 2015 watch unit estimate to 10.5 million from 11 million and slashed its fiscal 2016 estimate to 21 million from 24 million. The average analyst estimate for watch unit sales is currently 4.2 million and 14 million for 2015 and 2016, respectively, according to FactSet.”

Read more in the full article here.

“‘Anecdotal evidence suggests Apple Watch demand is slowing quickly,’ according to Hargreaves’ note. ‘This dovetails with recent supply checks, which suggested a reduction in component order volume,'” Matt Krantz reports for USA Today.

“The report is the latest data point indicating investors and developers need to downscale their expectations from this new gadget,” Krantz reports. “In early May, brokerage firm UBS cut its fiscal 2016 forecast for Apple Watch sales – even calling the launch of the product ‘somewhat botched.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: What this “anecdotal evidence” is, is never explained in either article. If it’s “Google searches,” then, sorry, that is not a reliable indicator of demand.

Now, forget the “somewhat,” The Apple Watch launch was obviously botched. You cannot sell units without units to sell. And you cannot maintain momentum without promptly satisfying early adopters so they can spread the excitement to the next wave, the early majority.

Apple should have stayed silent last autumn, held an appropriately-timed Apple Watch unveiling event in March, and launched the device in June after they had sufficient units on hand and in stores.

If Apple was on their next CEO, one not handpicked by Steve Jobs, and this type of ill-timed “launch” happened, that CEO would currently be under massive fire, and rightfully so.

SEE ALSO:
Morgan Stanley soundly refutes KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo’s Apple Watch demand claim – May 21, 2015
Morgan Stanley: Apple Watch demand up 60% in US since March – May 21, 2015

56 Comments

    1. I assume you do not own one yet. Yesterday, in just the first few hours of getting mine, I used it to remotely control both of my AppleTVs and ApplePay my purchase at Walgreens. I had not seen Dick Tracy do that.

      I wonder what I will learn to do with my Apple Watch today and next month! I see the iDevice app on the watch. Maybe I will get it to connect to the temperature probe I use on the grill for our July 4th barbecue.

      Note: My iPhone 5S could not do ApplePay and the Apple Watch can do that when I do not have my iPhone with me. Many of the upgraded apps no longer use the iPhone to work. Maybe you should get an Apple Watch before you form an opinion. Balmer did not believe the iPhone had a market either. He was wrong too!

          1. Didn’t you used to be white, in the comics? Is this some kind of reverse Michael Jackson-type transformation? And why did Stan Lee agree to it? I thought he held all the cards in the Marvel Universe. Did he have a fixation with Samuel L. Jackson, or did the P.C. Brigade persuade him to switch up, the way he did with the new mixed-race Spider-Man? God knows D.C. Isn’t any better; not sure we want the world to be saved by an alien or a lesbian. Better if Lex Luthor takes over.

    2. Sorry, we really DON’T NEED a phone either… society got a long just fine without cell phones… maybe even better! We’ve just convinced ourselves we NEED a phone, and some of us have convinced ourselves, me included that we NEED the AW.

    3. Hardly anyone needs a Tesla but the stock continues to climb and Wall Street claims there’s some huge potential out there. I don’t hear any analysts yelling how no one needs a Tesla auto or that demand has slowed. I’m certain I’ve never seen a Tesla automobile where I live. Unusual cars usually attract my attention. Most of these analysts are full of crap. They’re just mouthpieces for whoever is paying them on the side.

      Apple will undoubtedly beat Wall Street’s estimates in Q3 but the stock will continue to go nowhere. Apple’s high internal value has nothing to do with Wall Street’s appraised value of the company. Amazon’s share value will continue to climb whether they turn any profits or not. I don’t understand it, but that’s how it is. Everything Amazon does is seen as being positive. Everything Apple does is seen as being negative. Go figure.

      1. You’re correct on all points. It will spike after the next earnings report this month for Q3. Then it will go sideways until November. Look, just because you like the products doesn’t mean that it is the best investment opportunity available. TSLA is indeed a better choice. It has more potential. AAPL is so big that it’s difficult to move the share price. And there are many companies that will do better than AAPL going forward. Quit feeling sorry for yourself. Man up. Learn to invest. Quit fucking whining.

    4. Agreed. Until Apple makes this watch Android compatible, it will remain a niche product, simply an iPhone accessory rather than something everyone can use, it won’t have mass appeal. It’s Apple’s new Newton.

      1. You think Apple doesn’t know that? The wearable’s market hasn’t gone anywhere since its inception, So, to test the general publics interest in this class of device, Apple decided to invest in a device designed to appeal to the world’s best consumers, its cache of experienced early adopters who don’t mind risking a little bread on the table to get what they like. That’s why the initial stock was so low.. who knew! If they get the sense there’s a general market for this device then they will really go after it, but it all hinges on this test market…. their user base. I hope the demand amongst us reaches the defined go! point. Then we’ll really see what this baby can be and do. But as of now I am ecstatically satisfied with my purchase.

        1. That’s what focus groups are for, not factories. I’m a long-time user of Apple Products, from Apple IIs to Macs to their laser printers, iPhones and iPads. The Apple watch leaves me cold, no interest whatsoever. It’s Apple’s new Pippin, Newton would be too generous. Three generations and it’ll be history.

    5. There’s an interesting pathology evident on MDN – the generalization of personal preference to the status of universal truth.

      I don’t have an Apple Watch. I won’t be buying one, because I just wouldn’t get enough use out of it. But I’m not so stupid as to think my personal needs and preference is any counter to the large numbers of people who are buying them.

      1. I have noticed the same thing, but i think of it not as a pathology but as an unfortunate default setting in the human brain. It works well in natural settings to which we are adapted but not so well in newer communications media such as the internet, where we tend to come across as witless more often than not—but face to face—within spitting, or striking, distance—our pronouncements tend to be more considered and less presumptuous.

    1. @silverhawkminus1

      Yeah, maybe we should just wait, considering you blew thousands of your retirement money on your Apple Watch.

      Just think of all the blue-haired old ladies you wont get a chance to chase around town.

      😐

      1. You still are a complete idiot aren’t you little randy! Wait until the 21st, then you will have absolutely no reason to troll here. Oh, at lest I have retirement money to buy a watch with, do they give you retirement pay at Burger King?

        1. @sarahpalindog

          Oh, that’s right, you actually bought 2 Apple Watches. Bet you got an unexpected pain somewhere when your 15-day return period expired.

          ☺️

          1. As usual you just make stuff up as you go, btw we’re talking AW, not politics, anyhoot agree with her or not, there’s no denying she’s an independent thinker, not a cloned robot.

  1. What did you guys expect?

    Did you actually think the Apple Watch was the next iPhone?

    Guess what, you need an iPhone to use the POS!

    Did you think it was the next iPad?

    The iPad is actually USEFUL.

    No the Apple Watch is just a useless device that actually costs dozens more than the aforementioned devices.

  2. Mine was delivered yesterday! Would not buy one until I could get to look them all over and try on my options. I chose the stainless steel with the easily adjusting black leather band. I would not have picked this band until I tried it on. I will get the stainless steel band later if I want it.

  3. Loving my Apple Watch as a great accessory to the iPhone. All else matters not. The peanut-brain gallery Doofus Doomsaying Patrol (i.e. fool’s rush in with less than visionary blather) will only look stupider and stupider as time goes on about the Apple Watch.

    It may not reach iPhone levels of adoption but will be a very strong product in Apple’s arsenal. Or are we so jaded a multi-billion dollar device market is just so much “chump change?” Subsequent models will only get better and stronger.

      1. Hey whatyever, ok, you’re right it’s worthless and bottom of the trash bin…. guess what? I STILL WANT IT! and love it and will soon order another… this time the SS model. It simply doesn’t matter what you or anyone else thinks about it, I ain’t buying it for you. You must be an extremely miserable person… tell you what, we’ll all get together, take-up a collection for you, and get you 1 of your own, then maybe you wont feel so bad about yourself, and loose the need for self-gratification.

  4. When Jobs pulled out the iPhone, I was stunned and knew it was a game changer.

    When Cook pulled out the watch, my reaction was, Huh? Why? That’s something I don’t want or need, and I’m one of those people who bought the 20th anniversary Mac. Even that is more useful than the watch.

    Sure the early adopters will always jump on the band wagon, but the rest of us are sold on the concept.

    1. Well Jimbo, that’s the point isn’t it… the rest always need someone else’s approval before making any decision…. we, early adopters, really don’t care what anyone else thinks. We’re self motivators, self thinkers, independent thinkers, requiring no mass acceptance, or, community approval for our actions, or buying decisions. But that’s ok, we don’t hold that agin-ya either. That’s why you don’s see any of us demanding that everyone else has to get 1. It’s purely CHOICE, regardless of the acceptance or lack of mass acceptance.

  5. Andy from pacific crest, would you care to give us your “‘Anecdotal evidence” (gossip) of the Galaxy 6 phones? or the stupid android watches? or the new microsoft’s phones?
    Would you? I guess not.

  6. What Ever! I got Mine, and am now even happier that I got it when I did… just in case this idiot is half right. Can’t wait for the biz reports at end of month, so I can determine to order the SS versioin now, or wait for the expected next gen.

  7. Wall Street don’t have any real facts from Apple inc. on Apple Watch sales or demand, so they make it up, to try and move the Stock price. Absolute rubbish from Andy Hargreaves as always!!

  8. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if there was an initial surge, which then slowed, followed by a large increase when they release the next version. It’s such a new technology that a lot of people will likely wait and see – it is a fairly large investment for something that is effectively an accessory to your iPhone (albeit a full featured one) as opposed to a 100% standalone device or replacement. Look at the iPhone, it was relatively slow to start then exploded.

  9. In the morning any time I try to make or pour coffee it triggers a client phone call. I’ve dropped my phone and spilled coffee doing the morning coffee call dance. Anecdotal evidence shows an Apple Watch would greatly improve my morning.

    Apple Music + Apple Watch Siri, is a game changer that will drive watch purchases.

    smartwatches are in an early adopter phase and apple has already trounced the competition.

  10. I like my Apple Watch. I do not “love” my Apple Watch. I am an Apple whack job enthusiast, and I love just about everything Apple. But I cannot be enthusiastic about a device that has so many problems. True, watchOS 2 is supposed to rectify 3rd party app bugs and other issues, but THAT should have been the OS that was released with this time around.

    Not saying I agree with orandy, but I expected better. I’m hopeful that these issues will be fixed, but if not, I’ll be dusting off my ten-year-old Tag Heuer Kirium, the best watch I’ve ever owned.

    1. Can you receive texts or emails on your Tag? Does it show you the temperature or let you know if a storm is nearby? Does your Tag let you skip forward to hear a different song? Oh, it gives you the time and date, both nice but that’s a ton of money for two features.

      1. Nup…

        He will certainly not be able to use his Tag Heuer Kirium like a toy for children…

        When I was 6 I was playing around with my Casio “because it had light and chronometer”… Becoming an adult I learned about the value of a real high end product.

        If I want temperature, mails, or whatever you want I use my phone. If I want a WATCH, not a GADGET I wear a Tag (or whatever decent brand). If I want just the time… Any 20$ watch will do the job

    1. Quite right to distinguish two disparate information media. Each is valuable in its own right, but craziness abounds when they are conflated. Apple is silent on its sales, but inquiring minds want to know: these internet writers who feed us for their living must substitute bat-wing for eye of newt in their cauldrons. IOW Apple’s privacy obsession really spawns a lot of these stupid stories.

      And yes, I think of analysts as cackling witches stirring the pot of destiny in Macbeth. Just get the recipe right, that’s all we ask.

      1. I’ve always found Apple’s privacy obsession to be great for their business. It keeps Apple entirely out of the various word warz. What the hit hags conjure out of the vacuum is their problem. Just don’t expect anyone intelligent to care. But if some curious cows come snooping around, the click-bait worked! A buck in the bank. That’s why bad marketing will always be with us.

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