Morgan Stanley soundly refutes KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo’s Apple Watch demand claim

“Here’s the real scoop on Apple Watch demand,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. “It’s up 60% and rising among iPhone owners, says Morgan Stanley, not falling as KGI reports.”

“In a bullish note to clients issued late Wednesday, Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty raised her sales estimates for both the iPhone and Apple Watch,” P.E.D. reports. “her report that Apple Watch demand is rising was a bit of a head-snapper, coming as it did only hours after KGI Securities’ Ming-Chi Kuo claimed that demand was falling.”

“Taipei-based Kuo, who tracks Apple’s Asian supply chain, is best known for predictions of future Apple products so prescient they border on industrial espionage,” P.E.D. reports. “His track record on unit sales estimates, however, is mixed. ”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Huberty’s estimates are based on Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise surveys. Actual data.

Of Kuo’s note, we wrote yesterday: This note features a lot of conclusions being jumped to based on a smattering of specious information. Without knowing how many 42mm vs. 38mm models were made, for example, there’s no way to rate the popularity of Watch sizes based on shipping times. There are also far too many unknowns to arrive at the conclusion that “demand seems to be slowing down.”

If the question is whether or not the next iPhone will have a 12-megapixel camera, we’d go with Kuo, but for gauging product demand, it’s no contest. We’ll take the data offered by Morgan Stanley over a specious conclusion jumped to from insufficient, incomplete, and potentially misleading information.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Dan K.” for the heads up.]

Related articles:
Morgan Stanley: Apple Watch demand up 60% in US since March – May 21, 2015
KGI lowers Apple Watch forecast significantly, says demand slowing down – May 20, 2015

4 Comments

  1. Solid data wins over speculation every time. In the end, time will tell regarding the sustained popularity (or lack thereof) of Apple Watch. But the signs point towards solid sales, highly positive customer feedback, and another product hit for Apple.

  2. Spent an hour speaking with a watch aficionado yesterday as I marveled at his very expensive dive watch. He began by acknowledging the Watch “looked to be well built.” After reviewing the third party apps and most significantly the impetus to exercise (showed him a month of exercise data on my iPhone 6+), he said, “I see the value now. I’ll get one.”

    Exposure = sales.

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