Forbes’ Roger Kay makes wager on Apple Watch sales

“Here’s what I’m going to do if Apple does manage to sell 50 million watches by April 24, 2016, a year from the starting ship date: I’ll get a T-shirt made that says, ‘I ♥ Tim Cook’ on the front and ‘You were right. I was wrong’ on the back,” Rpger Kay writes for Forbes. “In large letters.”

“I will wear this shirt and have pictures taken, front and back, which I will post to Facebook’s Instagram with proper notification to my various distribution lists and social media along with a reminder of what this is all about for those who dump their own memory cache periodically to make room for the next crazy thing,” Kay writes. “I’m driving a stake into the ground and am on the record with this innocuous little bet.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: It takes balls the size of BBs to bet on a number (50 million in 12 months) that took iPod 54 months, iPhone 36 months, and iPad 21 months to achieve.

Roger Kay: “Ooh, ooh, I bet you that Usain Bolt can’t run 100 meters in 8.00 seconds! If not, I’ll, uh… I’ll wear a t-shirt!!!”
The world: “Okay, Rog, whatever floats your boat.”

iCal’ed, regardless.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “J-P” for the heads up.]

Related articles:
Apple Watch first weekend preorders destroy Android Wear’s annual sales – April 13, 2015
Average U.S. Apple Watch pre-order was $707 – April 13, 2015
Apple Watch first-day pre-orders estimated near 1 million – April 13, 2015
Apple likely to quickly ramp up Apple Watch production – April 13, 2015
Apple Watch pre-order shipping estimates stretch into summer – April 11, 2015
Apple Watch sold out in minutes; didn’t preorder in time, how’s June sound? – April 10, 2015
Here are the dates you can expect to get your Apple Watch – April 10, 2015
Apple Watch on fire as Apple sells out fast – April 10, 2015
Apple Watch draws strong turnout at Apple Retail Stores – April 10, 2015
Apple Watch already sold out – April 10, 2015
Open thread: Did you get your Apple Watch preorder placed? – April 10, 2015

21 Comments

  1. Isn’t there a complaint for the Androids of the world that the quantities quoted are not actual sales but what’s been shipped to sale? If so, why can’t Apple do the same? So if by 12 months from now Apple sold 35 million watches, have them have produce 15 million to sell giving them that 50 million total! Problem Solved! Rog, start sizing yourself for that t-shirt!

    1. It won’t be an issue, because Apple will easily sell 50 million Apple Watches during the first year. By April 24th next year, there will be more than 500,000,000 iPhone (5 or later) owners. Only 10% of those highly satisfied and friendly existing Apple customers need to say YES to exceed 50 million, plus NEW Apple customers buying an iPhone and Apple Watch together.

      As I’ve posted before, I think Apple can exceed 30 million sold or on waiting list by the end of the June quarter THIS YEAR. That number “merely” means that 10% of current potential customers decided to be “early adopters.” That sounds perfectly plausible to me.

      Apple biggest constraint is being able to produce them fast enough. 50 million in one year means producing (on average) about one million per week on an ongoing basis.

  2. So, if apple sells 40 million or 25 million watches in 12 months, you were right?
    Let’s see how much of what ever crap you make you can sell in half the time.

  3. Forbes, by my casual perusal of their headlines, has the strong majority of its Apple stories as being more pessimistic than other publications.

    Pessimism is healthy, but Forbes seems to go out of their way to be that way.

  4. I think MDN should be ordering that Tshirt for Forbes, Roger Kay to wear, now. In addition, put a credit line on front and back that reads, “Presented to Roger Kay from MDN and its readers.” 🖖😀⌚️

  5. (some things never change) like i said before …

    Analysts:

    “Apple will never produce another hit platform product. Companies only make one of two of these in their existence”
    then
    “OK Apple made the Apple Watch but it will not sell”
    then
    “Apple Watch sold out because they had small numbers Available”
    then
    “This ‘supply constraint’ problems shows Apple’s supply chain is deteriorating or they had ‘no faith’ in the product and ordered little”
    then
    “Apple Watch sold gazillions but that is BAD because next year without a new product launch sales will pale in comparison”
    then
    “Although Apple Watch has been selling millions over the last few years we are sure THIS year the market will be saturated”

    then
    “OK market not saturated yet but THIS year the new (version 17) Nexus-Galaxy – Andromeda – Edge Backside Bazooka will destroy the watch…l ”

    then
    “OK Apple is taking 90% of the profits and the Backside Bazooka has stopped production BUT WE KNOW : “Apple will never produce another hit platform product. Companies only make one of two of these in their existence”

    in short
    “Never buy Apple Stock , we’ve said it since 1976… “

    (Dilbert “You mean success is due to circular logic? ” )

  6. “I’m driving a stake into the ground and am on the record with this innocuous little bet.”

    Innocuous – harmless? Sure. But other definitions such as not interesting, stimulating, or significant; pallid; insipid fit better.

    Let’s make a bet on this forum – if Apple does sell 50M Apple Watches by April 24, 2016, then we will start a campaign for all Apple users to wear t-shirts declaring “Roger Kay is a/an “…in large letters, of course.

  7. 54 Months would be a more likely bet, which I don’t see happening either. It will create a big splash on launch and peter out eventually. I will agree that it looks like a very nicely crafted product but don’t see it as a must buy apple product. If anyone ask me which Apple product to buy I will tell them about every other product which is worth their money but will not recommend Apple watch. It is an elitist product and a waste of money. I will still say that even if they sell 100 million watches in one year.

  8. I believe Apple has said they won’t be reporting actual Apple Watch sales, but rolling those sales into another category when they report revenues each quarter. If that’s true, we’ll never know how many they sold, unless Apple specifically reports it at one of their periodic keynotes.

  9. If Apple somehow sold 25M, with an ASP above $500 and a profit margin at 50%, that’s more than $6B in pure profit.

    The Watch alone would be a Fortune 100 company.

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