Donald Luskin: Apple a cult that will someday be buried in tech graveyard

“Trend Macro chief investment officer, Don Luskin, is not all happy about Apple’s market valuation,” Viraj Shah reports for Insider Monkey. “During an interview on CNBC, Luskin, called Apple a cult that should succumb to competition going forward as more inventions hit the tech space from other companies.”

They always seem to find something to do for none core I have to admit, they always surprises me. But one of these days somebody other than Apple is going to invent something and when that day happens we are going to throw away our Apple’s. We are going to buy something else, and that will be it for Apple Inc., and it will just be in the graveyard like all the other tech companies that used to rule the world and don’t anymore. I am too tired of calling them the top, but I am also tired of this cult. — Donald Luskin, Trend Macro CIO

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple cultists, the annual indoctrination ceremony will be held in San Francisco this June! Following the event, we’ll hop into the vans and go door to door selling Apple Store Gift Cards and soliciting Windows to Mac and Android to iPhone switchers. As usual, the Kool-aid reception is planned for later that evening – all are welcome. Do not forget your robes!

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Rik T.” for the heads up.]

72 Comments

    1. Um, is English this guy’s first language? If not, does someone at his firm proofread/edit his communictions? This diatribe is almost nonsensical, making me wonder if someone hasn’t punked the good Mr. Luskin. What a maroon! (ala Bugs Bunny)

      1. My thoughts exactly.

        But, he’s exactly right. EVENTUALLY, Apple will go away. It might take 100 years. It might take 500 years. But, EVENTUALLY, Apple will go crater.

        However, I see *absolutely zero* reason to believe Apple will crater (or even be supplanted as the top innovator and vendor) within the next 5 to 10 years.

    2. Must be another guy who ridiculed Apple and Apple fans in the 1990’s, screaming with delight, “See, I told you Apple was doomed!” And now, he is too embarrassed to ever admit he was SO utterly wrong… 🙂

  1. In one sense he’s right: there will be, one day, a company that destroys all Apple products. He’s just wrong about which company that will be. It will be Apple. They are their own toughest competition: unafraid to cannibalize their own hottest device for the next hottest device. So, essentially, he’s right… 🙂

    1. He fails to understand _why_ Apple has achieved such success – because of an insane addiction to achieving perfection, coupled with awesome people. Look at the morons at other companies for comparison. Many of them are now no longer executives because of their lack of understanding Apple.

    2. I agree that *pedantically* he is correct .. and if we pedantically extend out the timeline far enough, even the “It will be Apple cannibalizing Apple” has to eventually fall too.

      Thus said, all that he is really saying is that he’s become loathsomely tired of Apple being the top dog…and then he tries to imply that their success to some supposed ‘cult’.

      The problem with the latter is that the ‘Law of Large Numbers’ belie his inference that only a trivially small handful of kooks are what’s keeping Apple afloat. But if we tuse the metric of just the total units of iOS sales, we find that roughly 14% of the entire world’s population have bought one to have become members of this ‘cult’. Or if we say that every cult member has purchased three (3) iOS devices, it is still 5% of the World’s population – – even before we subtract out the non-consumers (children and elderly).

      Similarly, if we use a fiscal (revenues) metric, Apple’s $75B last quarter means that their size is comparable to Hong Kong.

      So!

      If Luskin really wants to talk about Apple, he can start by discussing the manipulation of their stock and why it is still at 14:1 P/E instead of much higher. While he’s at it, also explain why it is that some other tech stocks have utterly irrational ratios … Amazon’s P/E has at times exceeded 500:1

  2. That is one of the most inarticulate criticisms of Apple I have ever read. He needs a proof reader.

    I suspect Mr.Luskin will have shuffled off this mortal coil long before Apple dies.

  3. I would LOVE to talk with this guy to dig down deep and find out what is eating him up so much? What, exactly, is his problem? Why is he so irrationally passionate about hating Apple? What IS it with these people? What did Apple ever do to them? I honestly don’t get it (I’ll admit that I’ve been drinking Apple Kool-Aid since 1985, but still…).

  4. Not a cultist here.

    If someone can build a better desktop/laptop/tablet/phone/media player offering supporting software that integrates well at a reasonable price- bring it on. I will take a serious look at it and would be more than willing to consider it.

    So far that is not happening.

    1. Agreed. And, while I’m a huge Linux N00b, I keep trying different variants that will work easily out-of-the-box. I have found some that come close, but still aren’t up to the OS X ease-of-use.

      Honestly, I look at Linux as Windows replacements for people who aren’t quite at the “buy a Mac” step yet.

      As for the hardware itself, I haven’t seen any laptops that compare to Apple’s (though ASUS comes close sometimes).

    2. Apple may go away but the cult will never go away. It’s the cult of people who prefer a better product. When you make a better product (good luck with that!), the cult will come to you.

  5. Methinks this Luskin got seriously butt-hurt by investing in Google and Android and possibly Microsoft. I realize in the world of tech anything can change but Apple is in a position to ride with the change. Unfortunately, I can’t imagine what this device is that comes along and puts Apple out of business. This device would have to excel in so many ways and be distributed to the masses. It wouldn’t likely happen in a six months’ period. Apple would at least have time to adapt.

    I certainly can’t imagine consumers simply throwing away their good Apple products to get their hands on this new and exciting product after they’ve already invested in Apple’s ecosystem. I’ve already tried to hash out some scenarios where Apple quickly becomes completely irrelevant but I just don’t see it happening. Anything in this world is possible but I just can’t envision it. Apple seems to be a very unique company and maybe they’re also lucky to have gotten to where they have. If Apple goes down, I think a lot of other companies would also be taken down before Apple.

    1. Mac, iPhone, iPad, iWatch, Apple TV, HomeKit, CarPlay, Apple Pay, all are part of an expanding ecosystem. It’s going to be almost impossible for anyone else to catch up. While everyone else was busy copying iPhones and iPads, Apple has been quietly laying the ground to have products that all talk to one another in every phase of life. What else they are planning, who knows? I don’t think anyone has the faintest clue as to how big Apple can grow to be. Certainly not Mr. Luskin. Too bad his business is dependent upon systems being inherently insecure.

    2. Add to that the Apple logo is soon going to be on most Contactless Card Readers around the world, with Apple getting a small cut for each sale conducted on one of their hundreds of millions of devices… yeh I can’t see this guys prediction coming true anytime in the next 10 years, maybe 20.

      But hey, even a stopped clock is right twice a day 🙂

      I’ll have some of what he’s smoking!!!

    1. BMWTwisty, excellent read! The guy’s prediction regarding the 2008 recession was one of the worst of all time. The following last sentence from the Predictions section says it all:

      He has been singled out for “some of the worst, money losing commentary of the past few years.”[24]

  6. With $150 billion in the bank, no, someone else will not invent something that destroys Apple. They will buy it long before that’s an issue, or out compete it.

    To be clear, though, it’s not just a money thing, it’s a culture thing. Apple’s culture is to not rest on its laurels and to be working 5-10 years out. As long as they stay hungry this scenario is very very unlikely.

  7. This argument only makes sense if other companies had shown any sign of being able to beat Apple and/or if Apple had shown any signs of fundamentally no longer being able to execute like they used to. You can argue about quality slipping slightly or the odd minor point here and there, and you can bandy the word cult around, but Apple are not coasting like Microsoft did, and are not reliant on a product that has gained a monopoly despite being rubbish like Microsoft were.

  8. Hmm…turns out Luskin is a big time libertarian who co-wrote the book: “I Am John Galt: Today’s Heroic Innovators Building the World and the Villainous Parasites Destroying It”. Sounds like someone MDN’s guy would normally like… 😉

  9. I say, Luskin presents a very nice formula about a new invention that is going to supplant Apple.

    That works fine for an example like the horse and buggy being supplanted by the car, but no so fine for enduring inventions such as screws, bowls, books and clothes that are still around and no doubt will be around for many years to come.

    It also forgoes one of the great capacities of human beings to adapt and change. The 3M company for example started off as the Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company and went from mining to sandpaper and eventually transformed itself into the corporation it is today.

    What is more important to note is the emotional state of Luskin as he attempts to lump Apple into the graveyard. “I am too tired of calling them the top, but I am also tired of this cult,”

    Luskin, if you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen. Unless of course you are stupid and if that’s the case, just keep whining, someone is sure to call you a WHAAAAAAAAAAAmbulance eventually, or a drone.

    1. To call Apple a cult is to say—with more emotion than reason—this isn’t ordinary competition; it’s a religious war!

      “Cult: A relatively small group of people having (esp. religious) beliefs or practices regarded by others as strange or sinister, or as exercising excessive control over members” — Oxford English Dictionary

      “In modern usage, the term cult is often used by the general public to describe any religious group they view as strange or dangerous” — Watchman Fellowship

      1. Thanks for the definition. Apple, including those who have Apple products is not a small group of people, nor is it religious in my regards. Now having beliefs or practices regarded by others as strange or sinister makes a lot of sense. Certainly operating with integrity these days is strange and sinister to those who don’t, and we both know who those types are.

        Excessive control over members, well that can work too, especially for those in the Apple work force, though those people can quit their jobs without further prosecution at least from what I’ve seen.

        I think to apply cult to Apple is a bit out of date.

  10. An addendum: Luskin likes that other cult, you know where people know Windows is a shit OS where they will be infected regularly, buy it anyway, and then get preyed upon by a company like Trend Micro in the hopes of being a tad “safer” in the internet playground.

    Luskin is a scumbag. <— Hopefully that gets "spidered" into Google's search.

  11. actually the real trouble for Apple is going to be the reverse of that:

    at some point Apple’s products will be so good that no one will have to replace them.

    I have an iPad 1 that is almost 5 years old and it still does what I want- read books, watch movies, surf the web, etc just fine. No need to upgrade yet.

    I have a late 2012 iMac that is really, really nice. If it doesn’t last until 2017, I’m going to be surprised. It plenty fast enough for ANYTHING I might do. I’ll NEVER edit videos on a professional scale.

    I have a iPhone 5s, that is really great. My contract is up in September. Whatever Apple has at that point, I’ll give it a hard look. I might decide to keep what I have and pay to replace the battery and use it for 2-3 more years.

    In effect, Apple’s products are getting so good that they don’t need to be replaced any more. Do you think I’ll buy a Android phone, a windows computer, table or phone? NEVER in a billion years. I wouldn’t take one for free, if my boss gave me one, it would stay on my desk and be turned off at 5pm. 🙂

    1. Google declined to continue updating the Google Galaxy Nexus two years after they sold it to my daughter. We bought into the Nexus program because it was Google’s own device so we figured they would do a good job providing updates. Nope.

      We have an iPad 1 and 2 and they are still both in daily use. I have a new Retina MacBook Pro which I love. Would I replace it for additional functionality? Absolutely. But it won’t be anytime soon. Features that I would like added: Touch Id, Wireless Display, USB Type C to replace Thunderbolt, better battery life, Charger with USB ports.

  12. “….going to invent something and when that day happens we are going to throw away our Apple’s.”

    Sorry but can’t take someone seriously if he can’t do something as simple as make a word plural.

  13. I don’t understand the hatred some people harbor for Apple’s products and Apple as a company. A manager I respect said to me once “Apple Macs are a virus, and they have to be removed from our company’s network”. On these people, there’s no base to their claims, just pure hostility. Why?

  14. I think we are all “tired” of these Donald Luskin, Trend Macro CIO types. Go fsck yourself a-hole and then buy an Android or Windows phone, PC, etc.. We don’t want you in our “cult.”

    I believe though another company DID try to come in and briefly and perceptually market shared Apple out of the smart phone market until, well, they didn’t.

    What don’t you understand about Apple DNA and how great it is you complete dimwit? We are lucky to even have a company so created by Steve Jobs or you’d be using low ball tech gear with “KOBY” or steaming “PYLE” stamped on the front. Ungrateful spoiled wretch.

  15. Ben Klaiber – Author of ‘Anatomy of an Apple – The Lessons Steve Taught Us’ posted on that site and it bears repeating here:

    “Luskin, jackass extraordinaire. PUH-LEEZ with the bs, ‘cult’ thing. It’s a poor man’s last ditch attempt to attack anyone who prefer’s products that actually work, focus on offering benefits instead of meaningless (and misleading) spec sheets, that elicit joy and humanity rather than trying to demand humanity drop to their knees to worship the technarati’s idea of quality.

    No matter how many years go by, I’m not going to EVER care more about how I could take an Android phone, telnet into a server, do a bunch of torrenting (better done from a desktop, where those files would need to be transferred to anyways), or how amazing it would be if I pretended to be a cyborg all day wearing glasses that intrude on every person’s privacy and record their lives without their permission. Google just doesn’t get it that not everyone aspires to to be part of their machine. We want technology that puts OUR needs first.

    I don’t need 50 settings in my phone’s camera, I need a phone camera that intelligently snaps beautiful and meaningful memories for me.

    I don’t want to hand all my documents to Google to index, search through and store in their massive database on me. I want a system like iCloud documents, that makes sure the documents I deem vital for sharing are right there on my iPad, iPhone and Mac, all in sync and up to date.

    Apple offers the closest to exactly what I want, and as long as Google and other companies insist on shoving stickers for every third party who gives them a penny on the device, installing tons of useless third party software that I never accepted in order to collect money from the developers by selling access to ME, denying my privacy rights whatsoever, and delivering software that’s over-complicated, needlessly inefficient, and generally fugly, I’ll be buying Apple.

    These people never get it. It has never been about someone other than Apple inventing ANYTHING, it’s that Apple’s version of it is far better aligned to the general population’s best usage.

    Apple strikes a great balance between ignoring the public’s temporary or mistaken complaints (who needs that giant iphone you call an iPad? I WANT A PHYSICAL KEYBOARD!!!), and hearing what’s really important (I need to more storage, and most of it is these high-resoution photos. Could Apple find a way to just store device optimized versions on the phone, but leave the full resolution versions in the cloud and on my other devices? Thanks!). That’s a winning formula that isn’t a one-trick pony and isn’t about to disappear.”

  16. I think the fundamental philosophy of the important members of the team at the top of Apple is money is not the goal. Jony has said this many times and I truly believe that is how it is there.

    Think about it, if you concentrate on making the best products, people will buy them. Money then becomes a secondary factor, something that you get after all the hard work has been done. Apple are the only company I can think of that doesn’t make a bad product, and they do that by focusing intensely on making it great.

    I bet the design team don’t even think about cost at any point in the design process.

  17. one of these days somebody other than Apple is going to invent something

    I bloody hope so!

    Tell us, oh wise and knowing Donald Luskin, Trend Macro CIO. Why the hell ISN’T anyone else inventing something? I know why. It has something to do with critical, unimaginative, unsupportive, techTard Apple Bear Bullshitters like you. It’s about engendering a creative culture and environment within the business world, like Apple consistently manages to do, despite the consistent DEATH KNELLS. Why can’t every company be POSITIVE and INVENTIVE like Apple? Answer that enormous throbbing question Mr. Luskin. It will blow your insular mind. It will make you another devotee in the drive to END our current sad age of bad biznizz.

    Meanwhile: Bring on the competition! Please! Apple always requires competition! As I always blether: Competition is the father of innovation.

  18. Critics of Apple have done rather poorly. There was that computer company, Droll, Dull, no Dell that criticized Apple; then there was that berry phone company, um Blackberry, something about Apple knowing nothing about how to produce a smartphone; and how well did Stevie B of M$ do? Seems there was a lot of trash talking about Apple. Now all the trash talkers are having to eat their garbage. The anal-ists predictions haven’t fared any better. 😀

  19. Haha. This is a riot. You can feel the pain of this Apple hater while he’s dying. You can almost hear his whimpers. He’s just realized that Apple really is better than anything he’s been spouting about his whole tech life, and it has dawned on him finally that he’s been wrong. I can see his lost and bewildered face.

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