Apple Watch: Sorting through the prediction hysteria

“Apple still hasn’t announced when its new smartwatch will go on sale beyond ‘early 2015,'” Adam Levine-Weinberg writes for The Motley Fool. “However, now that the Apple Watch launch looks to be right around the corner, analysts and tech pundits are becoming increasingly vocal about their predictions for its consumer acceptance.”

“Indeed, since the beginning of the year, Apple Watch news has been dominated by bold predictions about the Watch from both bulls and bears,” Levine-Weinberg writes. “However, extremists on both sides of the argument are almost certainly off-base.”

Levine-Weinberg writes, “The Apple Watch will not be nearly as big (in terms of revenue) as the iPhone, but should easily surpass the iPod and may even rival the iPad.”

Read more in the full article here.

Related articles:
Apple Watch remains the gold standard of wearables after disappointing CES 2015 – January 15, 2015
Boom! Nearly 1 in 5 iPhone 6 owners say they will ‘definitely’ buy an Apple Watch – January 14, 2015
Why Apple Watch will own the high end wearable market – January 13, 2015

13 Comments

  1. > The Apple Watch will not be nearly as big (in terms of revenue) as the iPhone…

    Well, that’s an easy prediction to make. Potential Apple Watch customers already need to be an iPhone customer. And the average per unit revenue for each iPhone sale (including the subsidy) is at least two to three times higher compared to Apple Watch. “By design,” the revenue from Apple Watch cannot approach the revenue from iPhone (except maybe during an initial surge in sales)… Unless Apple happens to sell a exceedingly high percentage of the gold “Edition” version… 🙂

    Here’s something I have not heard discussed in the “prediction hysteria.” Apple has an advantage here in “getting the sale,” because EVERY potential customer of Apple Watch has already said “Yes” to Apple by buying an iPhone.

    Way back when Apple launched iPod (2001), it was only for Mac users. Windows users could not use it at all, even if their computer had a FireWire port, because there was no iTunes for Windows (or a substitute third-party app) for syncing the iPod. EVERY potential iPod customer already said “Yes” to Apple by buying a Mac. And iPod quickly became a tremendous success story.

    With Apple Watch, Apple is essentially “preaching to the choir.” Selling Apple Watch is an easy “Yes.”

  2. I won’t be one to buy the iWatch, even though it’s a great idea. I have no reason to buy a smart phone since I have no need for one. I am sure as a long time Apple customer (32 Yrs), I am not alone in not needing a smart phone. I no longer travel and only use a landline phone.

    1. You’re not a potential customer, so you can’t actually make that decision to buy an Apple Watch or not. You need to first become an iPhone customer, before becoming a potential Apple Watch customer. 🙂

  3. Wait and see. That is the way to sort out rumors.

    I can already guess that I will want notifications for only specific things which I find useful.

    It may well be I will NOT put the Apple Watch on my wrist!

    1. As I’ve mentioned before, watching my students pull their phones from their pockets to check the time reminds me of my old grandpa pulling out his pocket watch.

      So Apple sort of makes pocket watches already. 🙂

  4. Hopefully there’ll be decent third-party options for charging. Some people spend lots of time on the road – they’ll need charging solutions for the car, the hotel room, etc. Just one more device to have to plug in at each location (for some, that will be iPhone, MacBook, Apple Watch, and iPad!). No one will want to carry a stand as well as all those cables.

  5. When the Apple Watch saves the first couple of lives by detecting early stage diseases like cancer or pre-warns of strokes/heart attacks it will reach 80% penetration of the Apple base. This should occur within the next 5-6 years and contribute at least $80B a year in revenue.

    The tech to make this happen is quickly advancing. Here are examples of what the U.S. Air Force and Universities have been able to accomplish:

    http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/diagnostics/sweat-sensors-will-change-how-wearables-track-your-health

    This tech will be as important as the invention of the lightbulb, automobile, computer, etc.

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