Apple’s Q414: The amateur analysts called it. The pros blew it.

Apple’s “Q4 2014 was one for the amateurs,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“They took nine of the top 10 spots in our Earnings Smackdown, based on the accuracy of their calls for Apple’s top and bottom lines,” P.E.D. reports. “The only pro sufficiently bullish to make the top 10 was Deutsche Bank’s Sherri Scribner who, ironically, had downgraded Apple from Buy to Hold just three weeks ago.”

“Kudos to Kirk Burgess of the amateur Braeburn Group and Sand Hill Insights’ Chuck Jones, who took the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively,” P.E.D. reports. “Burgess missed Apple’s EPS by only a penny — not an easy thing to do when Apple’s share count keeps dropping. And Jones’ estimates were best or second best in four categories: Revenue, EPS, iPhones and Macs.”

See all of the Apple analysts’ results in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dan K.” for the heads up.]

Related article:
Apple bulldozes Street with record quarterly revenue of $42.1 billion – October 20, 2014


    1. As a long time member of the group that is now known as the Braeburn Group, I can tell you that their performance is no surprise. They’ve been embarrassing the pros for at least a decade. The insights of other members are a large part of why my portfolio in AAPL has grown 4000% over the last 12 years. Congratulations all you amateurs who have kept the faith in the face of massive FUD and incessant blathering by the paid pundits.

  1. For customers who like ecosytem and can afford it, Apple is the way to go now. iPhone, iPad, Mac.

    The problem for some is choosing the user software, not the operating system.

    1. The better way for the pro’s to say is — EPS will be (example $ 2.00 to $ 2.10) and then to give buy and sell target prices. Instead, most only do half the job.

    2. You’re kidding right. When has an analyst ever considered their clients in their prognostications? These guys are simply copy cats jumping on whatever growth bandwagon is the current favorite.
      An example is my 401k vs my own stock choices. The 401k has grown ~50% over the past 14 years. The majority of that growth has occurred through dividend reinvestment not through stock growth. My own investments have grown 968% since 2007.
      The analysts are playing a game whereby they sucker investors into buying stocks they want to promote. If an analyst suggests buying stocks then the majority of the time you will lose money.

    3. Damn, you beat me to it. Yeah, the pros have an agenda, driven by the clients who pay them. The amateurs are interested in nothing other than getting it right.


    4. They have more important things to protect than clients. Most are investing their own money in Apple. Maybe that’s the bigger difference between them and the pros.

  2. A bit disappointed, but not surprised that the stock is up only $2 after such stellar results. Hopefully the Xmas quarter will give the brokers enough reason to let the stock rise up. Next quarter’s earnings will be legendary.

  3. As a real amateur amateur, I think the pros look an Apple like another Dell or HP or worse yet, Microsoft. I think their mistake is not realizing that Apple is its own entity and unlike the others, is consumer oriented. They make money by keeping their customers happy and happy customers come back.

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