Should you sell your Apple stock on September 9th?

“It appears that the iPhone 6 launch date will be September 9th or perhaps a bit later than that depending upon which rumor mill you choose to follow,” Jason Russ writes for Seeking Alpha. “”

“For all seven past iPhone releases, Apple stock has averaged total gains of 5.4% in the two-month period that covers before and after the phone launches. However, most of those gains have occurred in the month leading up to the launch. Post-launch one-month gains have averaged 1.4%,” Russ writes. “Taking out the very first launch – I think it is reasonable to postulate that the first iPhone data tells us little about what to expect going forward – and averaging the last six years results in a post-launch loss of 1.3%. Using data from the last four years results in an average loss of 4.4% in the month following a new phone release.”

“If the last six years of history have taught us anything it is that: AAPL is likely to decrease in the month after an iPhone launch [and] even if the stock is up for that time period, in the 2-3 weeks post-launch AAPL is unlikely to make a substantial move to the upside,” Russ writes. “Furthermore, for the last four launches, every time that Apple stock has increased pre-launch, the stock has tanked post-launch (an average drop of 8.8%).”

Much more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Looking at things from a different, longer-term angle, one might see a post-launch buying opportunity. Of course, as always: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Trade at your own risk.

35 Comments

  1. Probably room to sell them, let them drop for a few days as the market reacts to the news that the iPhone 6 doesn’t make us all omnipotent, then buy them back at a profit.

      1. Well, obviously it would only be a profit on what you sold them at. Unless the company collapses I’m never going to be able to buy at the price I originally bought at, but there’s always room to get some extra value out. Personally I should have been a lot more proactive over the last year or so in that regard.

  2. I don’t know what Apple’s stock is going to do, but it’s worth noting that things are a bit different this time.

    They discounted the first iPhone launch, but they should really discount the other iPhone launches that didn’t occur this late in the year.

    This iPhone may or may not be so radically different that the impact of it may exceed the expectations built into the lead-in hype affecting the stock. We also don’t know what else Apple intends to announce and the impact of the success or failures of those products.

    I think it’s fair to say that there usually is some hype that inflates Apple’s stock prior to any announcement, it’s still an unknown exactly what those announcements will be, how they’ll be perceived, and what the success or failure will be of the products and services that are announced.

  3. Well.. Daily or weekly fluctuations are expected. Even more so when it comes to buy rumor sell the news!
    But What one has to keep in mind is how good the holiday season is going to be.. And what Jan earnings will look like….
    If u ask me .. Block buster !
    And then comes whats anticipated for 2015.

    1. The stock market is, among other things, about human herding behavior. If you can predict what direction the herd is going to stampede next, then good for you.

      Of course, we have lots of herd wranglers with cattle prods on Wallnut Street who create stampedes, to their own personal benefit. I guess you’d have to figure out stock manipulator behavior to figure out which way they’re going to make the herd go running.

      Moooo!

  4. Why sell at all. Apple produces a dividend now. Unless you need the money, hold and buy more and reinvest the dividends too. But, if you must sell, don’t sell it all, just sell a piece of it in case you get it wrong.

    1. Believe it or not, Intel has run up much higher than Apple over the past 52 weeks and YTD and yet you won’t hear anyone saying they should sell Intel. Intel is at a 10-year high. Intel is getting clobbered in the mobile business thanks to ARM. Apple’s fundamentals are far, far better than Intel’s on everything except gross margins and dividend yield. Intel has got employee overhead up the wazoo. What’s driving up Intel’s share price faster than Apple in the post-PC era? I have no idea but it’s all there in black and white. Intel even has a higher P/E than Apple.

      If anyone can give a good reason why Intel is seen as a better investment than Apple, I’d sure like to know why (major market share, perhaps). The only articles I’ve seen are asking “Is it time to BUY Intel stock” not SELL it like they say to do with Apple every time Apple reaches a high.

  5. The AAPL stock manipulators must be supremely ticked off to see articles like this one. DARN! All their little secrets about how to screw over AAPL for their own personal profit are leaking out and becoming public knowledge. Now all the amateurs are messing up their game. 😥

  6. It’s a quandary. None of us want to take another ride on the last roller coaster.

    The new iWatch will likely have an blood pressure app called APPL stock.

  7. Last year the sell-off began after the reveal because many analysts assumed the 5c was going to cost a lot less and some pundents and competitors told us the 64-bit processor was a marketing gimmick. When the first weekend of sales blew out all estimates the stock quickly rebounded.

    In 2012, the stock tanked after the release because of mapgate and scuffgate. The stock continued to flounder because sales expectations were too high and Apple couldn’t beat.

    Even though there has been a stock run-up over the last couple of weeks, this year could be differente. The reason is because expectations seem to be slightly tempered. The chance of a saphire display is 50-50, there probably won’t be a huge advancment in battery life, and the new design seems very blah (judging from the case leaks). Even the chance of a new product catagory is 50/50. It seems the only two expectations are larger screens and a faster processor. So, with expectations so low, will there be a sell-off this year?

    1. There’s still be a selloff right at announcement because *some* analyst will air their disappointment that their pet feature didn’t make it, but you’re 100% right that expectations are tempered this year. No overly crazy yet credible-sounding rumours, and the lead-up is even dulled by word that supply might not meet demand for awhile (but when has it ever?)

    2. It is not about iPhone. It is all about what else Apple announces. It could be hardware such as iwatch or a payment service, or something even better such as Apple credit Card and payment service combined.

      Are you ready to let the Wall Street frightened you and to take the upside from your pocket? If worried, buy a few cheap calls now ahead of the announcement using the potential Divd you would have given up.

  8. This is why I don’t read anything from Seeking Alpha. The reason: the contributors are amateurs.

    If you are going to follow the author’s suggestion and sell now, you’re not an investor. You’re a speculator.

    If you are going to invest, remember that you are investing as an owner of a business, not a purchaser of shares of stock. Yes, Apple has had a nice run-up. And it is quite possible that we will see a sell-off after the launch of the next iPhone. But if you sell, consider that you are cutting off a dividend stream that is growing, and losing the chance to reinvest those dividends. Over time, just the growth of reinvested dividends alone will compound tremendously, making an investor a lot of money. In addition, over time, it is very likely that Apple will continue to grow its earnings and cash generation. Those two things drive a stock’s valuation in the long run.

    In the short term, investor sentiment can drive a stock’s price up or down, as has happened in both directions to Apple. Two years ago, pundits posited that there was no ceiling for Apple. A year ago, Apple was doomed, if you believed the pundits and analysts. And today? Quite a positive difference.

    I could care less about the short term. The real money to be made is to the patient investor. Amazon for example went to nosebleed level valuations in 1999 and early 2000, only to retreat to a protracted period where its stock went nowhere. But if you invested in Amazon in 1998, and stuck with it, you would realize a gain of 10,000% since then.

    The same is true for Apple. I bought in 1997, at a time when things looked bleak. I held on during lows and highs. And I will continue to hold on for many years, reinvesting dividends as I go.

    The upcoming iPhone announcement is merely a point in time. There will be many others like it in the future. I believe the company will grow significantly in the next 20 years, as will its dividend. The be patient will keep my investment costs low and my gains high. Some guy named Warren Buffett so happens to think the same way, as this is exactly what he does. And last I checked, Mr. Buffett has done pretty well for himself.

    Unless you need to cash out now, why bother? Why jump off a speeding train? Why sell your winners and hold on to losers?

    THAT is why the article above is total nonsense.

    1. Amen brother. I’m doing the same and have been doing the same of for many many years with a number of stocks that have had their ups and downs but in the long run more ups than downs and then there are those dividends.

      Tim Cook has gone much further than Steve Jobs in making Apple an incredibly valuable company: buying back shares and doing a dividend is now pulling in hedge funds and larger institutional investors.

      If the herd dumps it after the upcoming launches and the stock drops some, I say that’s a great opportunity to buy more, which I will.

    2. Same story here.
      Held since the late 90′ when all my friends and coworkers mocked me for sticking to the Mac.
      Paid off at the end. Loving that total gain of 1,036% and those dividends 🙂
      Think long term.

  9. There may be a great buying opportunity here, but be cautious when around falling stock prices. It may be a long drop before the market returns to its senses.

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