“The most ambitious rumors project 50 million iWatches sold in the first 12 months. I think that’s an unrealistic estimate, but if a $300 iWatch can sell at these numbers, that’s $15B for the year,” Jean-Louis Gassée writes for Monday Note. “This seems like a huge number until you compare it to a conservative estimate for the iPhone: 50 million iPhones at $650 generates $32B per quarter.”
“Perhaps the the iWatch will establish itself as The Smartwatch Done Right. But even if it succeeds in this category-defining role, it won’t have the power and flexibility or the huge number of apps of a true trouser pocket computer,” Gassée writes. “As a result, the iWatch will be part of the supporting cast, not a first order product like the iPhone.”
“There’s nothing wrong with that — it might help make high-margin iPhones even more attractive — but it won’t sell in numbers, dollar volume, or profit comparable to the iPhone or iPad,” Gassée writes. “The iWatch, if and when announced, might be The Next Big Thing – for the few weeks of a gargantuan media feast. But it won’t redefine an industry the way PCs, smartphones and tablets did.”
Much more in the full article here.
TheStreet’s Rocco Pendola: Apple’s iWatch will fail – June 23, 2014
Analyst: Apple to sell ‘iWatch’ to at least 10% of existing iPhone users next year – June 13, 2014
UBS sees Apple selling 21 million $300 ‘iWatch’ units in first year – June 9, 2014