2014 will be Apple’s tipping point where decline will follow or something

“Mobile phone markets have been treacherous ground for many players,” Michael Blair writes for Seeking Alpha. “The decline rates in market share ranged from 24% annually in the case of LG all the way to 62% year over year for Nokia. In each case, the vendor flirted with disaster and in the case of Palm eventually disappeared.”

“LG survived and is growing,” Blair writes, “BlackBerry is alive but a shadow of its former self; Siemens has left the playing field; Motorola was rescued by Google but continued to struggle; Palm was acquired by Hewlett-Packard and eventually disappeared from sight; Windows Phone almost disappeared but has been resurrected by Nokia now owned by Microsoft; and, Nokia had a near death experience but was saved by the Microsoft purchase of its handset business.”

“I believe Apple’s strategy to focus on margins and the “premium” end of the market while conceding market share to competitors is penny wise and pound foolish,” Blair writes. “A sub -10% share of the world smartphone market seems to be Apple’s destiny, eaten alive by Android and in danger of being pushed into a tiny corner of what is left by a resurgent Microsoft who is making sure that it expands device sales at no profit to expand the use of Microsoft software into every home and business possible.”

Blair writes, “I believe 2014 will be the tipping point from which Apple’s decline will follow. The Q1 results were spectacular and may not only be a record for Apple looking backwards but also an all time record for years to come.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: When we entered this one, Calendar smirked.

41 Comments

  1. Were these analysts hiding under a rock for most of 2013? Things can only go UPhill from here! Either that, or they think iOS 7 was the worst thing Apple made since the Pippin. If that’s the case, then they should be ignored.

    1. Pippin: It’s amusing how this albatross dross has floated to the top of the cesspool of history in recent months. It’s lifetime was, technically, 1993 – 1997. (Note that deadly time frame, Apple’s years of decay under the rule of Marketing-As-Management). During that period of time I heard not-a-peep about it from Apple. Occasionally it would show up in a tech article as an oddity. I had no idea that any rendition of the thing was ever released. That’s how successful it was. And yes, I knew who Bandai was at the time. And yes, I enjoyed keeping up with Apple’s experimental projects. That’s how much Apple really cared about Pippin, IOW: Not much at all. * f l o p *

      Here is one version of Pippin’s history:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Pippin

          1. You squeeze out the biggest turds here idiot.
            You don’t bother commenting on any article that is positive, only bad news or any mentioning iOS 7.
            Do us all a favor – shut the F up.

          1. Only if you’re old and unemployed, which you obviously are.
            If it’s so bad go and buy an ‘android’ phone you asshole.
            Your constant whining here accomplishes nothing.

  2. Blair is a self-described contrarian. In what sense is his assertion of Android’s increasing dominance of market share contrary to the overwhelming consensus of analysts? No, just another click-bait rabbit snare.

  3. Some “analysts” like to make invalid PC comparisons.
    In this case, I think a PC comparison has some validity.

    Apple refused to make bargain basement desktops and cheapo netbooks. Analysts yelled for YEARS how Apple MUST start building cheap desktops and then cheap netbooks. Result: Apple became the biggest company on the planet and computer sales are enormously stronger and enormously more profitable than the rest of the nose-diving Windows PC companies.

    Apple continues to make high-quality phones and iPads. What is the result now? What will it be in the future? Massive profit share now, that will, I think, continue.

    I don’t think cheapo phones are going to erode Apple’s profits any more than cheapo PCs and netcrapbooks did.

  4. Apple has enough leverage to buy most (if not all) of the “competitors” named in this article. It’s amazing how unimaginative these “Analysts” are. Write whatever unsubstantiated, skewed trash you want, add Apple to the mix, and sit back to watch all the click-hits as you balloon your own existence. It’s a wonder they can wake up in the morning! Yawn!!!

  5. Just read the entire article what a load of crap. The whole thing is written like Apple tomorrow will not produce another thing and that it will suddenly just disappear. The fact that they have little debt, or no debt, 159 billion in the bank, and the most industry profit in all sectors they compete means nothing to this moron. His article needs to be filed in the circular bin.

    1. Actually, Apple took on debt to buy back stock as a less expensive option to re-patriating profit held overseas that would incur 30% or higher US income tax rates to bring them into the United States so those assets could be used for the buy backs. Ergo, the $159 billion is still on the books, but must be offset by a liability.

  6. Tags: Apple, blind bastard, confused idiot, general stupidity, iCal’ed, insipid clod, iPhone, Michael Balir, smartphones, vapid moron

    TAG SAYS EVERYTHING……………!

  7. Just finished reading the entire article what a load of crap.
    The whole article is written as if Apple is suddenly going to just disappear tomorrow and never make another thing. It totally ignores the fact that they dominate money made in every category they compete in and have little to no debt, and forgets that they have 159 billion in the bank and its growing by huge amounts every quarter. The people in this morons comment section agree that he is just about wrong in every way with this article. Again what a moron.

  8. Hey! Just wait a Ding-Dong Minute!

    I thought 2012 was supposed to be THE BIG DOWNTURN! Wasn’t that why the AAPL price was flushed by 30% while Apple thrived??

    Then I thought 2013 was supposed to be THE BIG DOWNTURN! Wasn’t that why AAPL stagnated while Apple thrived?

    So now it’s supposed to be 2014? I’m supposed to believe these monkeys-with-calculators for a THIRD time?

    When THE HELL is Apple Gonna Die?! Dammit!
    /s 😛

  9. Every company has their own way of running things. Apple has already outlived a fair number of businesses that were a lot stronger than Apple at one time or another. Wall Street predicted that RIM would definitely overpower and outshine Apple’s iPhone business and it didn’t happen. People have been wrong before and they can possibly be wrong again. Apple’s share price might be in a decline but the company still appears plenty strong in my eyes. There’s still no layoffs and more retail stores are on the way. Apple really seems to me as a company still on the rise. A decline in the rate of growth is not the same as the decline of a company’s business. But then again I never saw the death of Steve Jobs taking most of the value of the company, either. Perceptions seem to rule in Wall Street and it’s something I don’t quite understand.

    I don’t see Apple’s business failing but I no longer have any confidence that the company’s value will ever rise. Apple can’t seem to get loyal investors like Google has and I really don’t understand why Apple can’t get more long-term institutional investors either. Maybe the dividend is still too low or it’s just the nature of Apple’s business not to attract big long-term investors. I’m really going to hate seeing Google blow by Apple in market cap in such a short time and I don’t even know what’s driving Google’s share price so high considering Google’s revenue hasn’t increased to such a degree.

    1. I no longer have any confidence that the company’s value will ever rise

      So, you IGNORE the quarterly reports? You IGNORE the fact that Apple just had yet-another RECORD quarter? WTF is wrong with you? Go get some treatment for that depression. Get out of that state you’re in!

      I don’t even know what’s driving Google’s share price so high

      No you don’t! Doesn’t that SHOUT at you that you do not comprehend the current state of Wall-Nut Street?

      One tiny clue: Human perception bubbles. Full of GAS.

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