Analysts estimate how many iPhones China Mobile will sell for Apple in 2014

“With six years to think about the question, many Apple (AAPL) analysts have already placed their bets for how many extra iPhones Apple is likely to sell in China now that the deal with China Mobile (CHL) has been announced,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“In theory, Apple just increased its addressable market in the world’s largest cellphone marketplace by 760 million potential customers,” P.E.D. reports. “But many of those China Mobile subscribers have already purchased a smartphone. And among the rest, most can neither afford an iPhone or live near enough to one of China Mobile’s high-speed base stations to take full advantage of the device’s capabilities.”

P.E.D. reports, “That gives analysts a lot wiggle room — especially analysts who offered a range of numbers — as you can see…”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Analysts. It’s quite the job to have less accountability than a local TV weatherman while placing bets with other peoples’ money.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dan K.” for the heads up.]

18 Comments

  1. Anal lysts, shitting their garbage before eating a full meal.
    Anyone who takes note of their shit, should not be surprised to find that they have turned into sewer rats waiting for the next toilet flush to deliver a meal or should I say meals?
    Big Fat Svengali’s! 🙁

  2. 700 million customers, of only 10 percent who can afford the subsidized iPhone, with a possibility of another 10 percent, struggling unfairly, to get theirs. China as a whole economy is globally competitive, but as a society, has a very small middle class. I can’t believe they will get amazing numbers. 700 million Chinese customers does not equal 300 million or 100 million Western Society customers.

    If they sell 5 million in the first year, everyone should be happy.

    I am no expert. If it is possible they sell more phones in China than the rest of the world, they should stop producing phones in China as a matter of principal, because then we’ve handed over too much.

      1. If whole families have to live on $1000 to $4000 per year, and this represents the average from rural to urban cities, how do you imagine they would be willing to put up 25% to 100% annual income for any technology at all?

        After writing quite a bit, I will just ask this question. What’s the average Chinese disposable income, given free healthcare and other services?

        This will tell us more about how many iPhones will sell.

    1. ‘They should stop producing phones in China’ because they potentially sell so many there? Not sure what the logic is there seems a bit of cut off your nose to spite your face to me. This is all about the future and you can bet that somewhere down the line its going to be their biggest market. So perhaps you should email Tim and tell him to plan the production change right now though not quite sure where the new production base or who is going to un it might be, do you?

      1. Okay in didn’t write that out clearly. I was trying to say, since we send manufacturing out side the US, to the point that our economy becomes smaller than China’s, then aren’t we hurting ourselves?

        What is too much outsourcing?

        I can’t expect Americans live on $4000 per year. I was just trying to draw a line in the sand, maybe we need to mix things up a bit and not put it all in China.

        Can we make iPhones in Mexico? At least it’s good for us if their economy does a lot better.

  3. I’d first like to know what factor is driving Android smartphone sales. Are consumers buying Android smartphones mainly because of their lower price or do they happen to like certain physical features Android devices offer. There wouldn’t have to be a lot of logic for Apple to sell a lot of iPhones in China. Higher sales could take place simply based on the iPhone becoming some sort of status symbol among the middle-class consumer. If there are those willing to sell body organs to obtain iPhones that may show the possibility of the iPhone being a highly sought-after status symbol.

    We don’t yet know the prices or subsidies offered so it’s hard to draw any conclusions of sales. I still believe if Apple can provide interest-free financing for all iPhones it would take away the upfront costs of purchasing an iPhone and certainly promote sales. That’s providing Chinese consumers really do want iPhones. There’s also the customer service aspect. I would think consumers would be thrilled with having better customer service to rely upon.

    I think analysts are overlooking a lot of things when it comes to iPhone sales. All they see is low price beats everything. For the most part this is how the world works but that still doesn’t rule out Apple having very decent sales because humans are quite unpredictable. iOS’s music, game and app ecosystem could make a huge difference in pulling in a larger proportion of consumers. We’ll really need to wait and see. Apple’s methods don’t have to be fixed in stone.

    1. I have the impression that phone size is a main factor consumers choose android over iPhone, followed by the price factor. In other words, iPhone screen size is a deal breaker.

      Yet, many people who cannot afford it will find ways to choose and pay for the iPhone.

      1. I do a lot of work in China and the key features they like in Android phones is the large size followed by price. What’s remarkable is even those I think can’t afford an iPhone have an iPhone, some have an iPhone and an Android phone. Sales in China will be great.

    1. Audi thats a surprise, maybe suggests that its affordable (first rung) ‘class’ as against real class that counts in that market at present. Now where does that leave the iPhone I wonder. Well still pretty high up judging where BMW and Benz are in the list I guess, which will suit them.

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