Will Apple’s share price rise or drop after October 22 special event?

“On October 15, 2013 Apple, Inc. (AAPL) sent out press invitations for an October 22 event to be held in San Francisco under the heading: ‘We still have a lot to cover,'” Bachar Samawi reports for Seeking Alpha. “For the event held on September 10, 2013 for the launch of the iPhone 5c, iPhone 5s and iOS7, Apple shares increased by 3.6% from one week prior to the sending of the invitations (whereby the invitations were sent out on September 3, 2013) to September 9, 2013, the day prior to the event. Yet, Apple shares reversed course and dropped by 11.1% in the week following the event, from $506.17 on September 9, 2013 to $450.12 on September 16, 2013. Will Apple shares reverse course again and drop following the October 22 event?”

“During the past 5 years there have been about 16 official Apple events, 6 of which included iPhone launches while 4 of which included iPad launches,” Samawi reports. “We examined Apple stock price movement surrounding the above events, from one week prior to the invitation date to one week following the actual event, as well as 90 days following the event.”

Samawi reports, “When we isolate iPhone events, Apple stock appreciated in 4 out 6 events in the week leading to the event (averaging -0.26% for all), 5 out of 6 occasions for the week following the event (averaging +0.6% for all), and 4 out of 5 occasions for the 90 days following the event (averaging +10.04%). When we isolate iPad event, Apple stock appreciated in 1 out 4 events in the week leading to the event (averaging -0.55% for all), 2 out of 4 occasions for the week following the event (averaging -2.24% for all), and 2 out of 4 occasions for the 90 days following the event (averaging +0.25%). Although past performance is no indication for future performance, it does seem that Apple stock performs well around iPhone events, with the exception of last year, while there is nothing conclusive for iPad events.”

Much more in the full article here.

37 Comments

    1. AAPL dropped after the iPhone5S announcement, BECAUSE OF S&P 500 REBALANCING. That the author fails to point this out identifies him as a totally clueless “will blog for food” writer.

  1. If Apple does something good, it will be seen as not good enough; the price will drop.
    If Apple does something seen as bad, the price will drop further.
    If Apple does nothing, they will say that Apple is doomed and can’t innovate; the price will drop.

    The take away from this, the price of AAPL will drop.

    1. Apple is a stock like a swimmer in lead overshoes. Anything less that paddling at 120% will cause it to sink. Sad but true.

      What’s ironic is that someone mentioned Netflix might end up cable boxes and the stock rose almost $25. I thought Apple was going to make some deals with the cable companies years ago and yet nothing has come of it so far. If Netflix can cut a deal and Apple can’t then there is something very, very wrong.

      1. Netflix is a ponzi scheme. The keep spending more and more on content with marginal increase in subscribers. If can get the service on cable, then you might as well drop the stand alone subscription, thus no net gain for subscribers. I dropped my subs a long time ago. No decent first run movies. If it ix such a profitable model, why wouldn’t Apple just replicate it. At some point they might with the next gen Apple TV box.

    2. … but it is hardly sufficient.
      The stock does not rise or fall based on its perceived value. It is manipulated. The Big Boys sell lots of their shares the day before the announcement, causing the price to drop. Then they buy back a few days or a week later – at a much slower pace to help prevent the unprofitable (for them) rise in price.

  2. It’s going to drop, or course … One or two grown-up questions would be:
    1) What will it be doing by Cmas time?

    2) How far will it fall between January and the end of May 2014?

    1. I am to the point of telling you to just F*CK OFF you stupid troll. Your worthless point has been made, repeatedly, on every damned thread you can lay your hands on.

      STFU already. Vomiting over and over and over the same old crap is NOT opinion. It is BLUDGEONING. That makes you a plain old ordinary TROLL. Yes it does. So STFU already.

      I hope I am annoying the hell out of you, just as you annoy all of us. Dickhead. 😛

      Now back to my regularly scheduled Apple enjoyment. 😉

      1. Currie you dumb f*ck you shut up. You sound like you should be on medication. Gary is right, iOS 7 is a piece of shit. So shut up, f*ck off to a corner and go f*ck yourself you dumb palook.

        1. i think it is not hard to deduce from the quality and content of this discourse that the pair (or three) of you are destined for jobs as doorstops, paperweights, or hat racks!

          1. Currie works at the local Ronald McDonald’s flipping burgers. I saw him working there while ordering my Big Mac at my local drive-through. He’s a fat git.

  3. There will be a slight drop after the 22nd then a rise into and thru the earnings call. Beating consensus and strong iPad sales will push the stock into the $520s. The chicken bones have spoken.

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