So, do I buy Apple shares on Monday?

“If there were ever a beleaguered stock, Apple is it,” Darcy Travlos writes for Forbes. “Apple now sits below $400 and has lost 44% since September. Any Apple investor can recite these numbers in their sleep with dismay and confusion. But just days before earnings and at such a depressed level, does an investor buy?”

“In the context of Apple’s history, this quarter will be a good quarter. It is highly possible that Apple will report sales that will be the highest in Second Quarter Fiscal Year history and quite possibly the third or fourth best quarter in the company’s history,” Travlos writes. “Consensus estimates are that Apple will earn $10.01 per share, which is slightly higher than the guidance provided by the company on the last call.”

Travlos writes, “Without any information or signals out of Apple, whether or not to buy on Monday depends on two criteria: valuation versus downside risk and an assessment (WAG) if Apple has anything up their sleeves for the earnings call… As for Monday, buying Apple stock may be an opportunity to call the bottom with limited downside, but buying any stock ahead of an earnings announcement is highly speculative. On the other hand, should Apple signal a cash or product strategy, project a vision or improve communications on its call, then less risk-tolerant investors would want to look at buying Apple after the earnings call to participate in upside for the second half of 2013.”

Read more (Apple TV, iWatch, dividend increase, stock split, etc.) in the full article here.

42 Comments

      1. Every time Tim Cook opens his mouth, it signals an automatic Apple sell-off. Scary. He doesn’t seem to say anything investors want to hear but maybe that’s not his fault if all investors are merely looking for is Apple to crack open its piggy bank.

        1. @LB

          You’re using the term ‘investors’ when the proper word is ‘speculators’.

          Investors are not looking for a short term handout from Apple’s cash reserves. It’s the speculators that want that, they don’t think about longer term implications.

    1. That is clearly what we’ve seen over the last 9 months with AAPL. You’d think there was a relationship between how well Apple is doing and how well AAPL is doing. But no. With the proper FUD, TechTardiness and analcyst bombast, that relationship can be entirely ignored by the gullible and ignorant, of whom there are quite a few in today’s stock market. I’m sorry to insult them all, but that’s what we’ve seen!

      IOW: Short term trading in the stock market is NOT for sheeple. Obviously. But if you enjoy getting fleeced, by all means enjoy yourselves. 😀

    1. It isn’t a question of whether Samsung is smart enough to engineer it. It’s a question of whether the consumer is dumb enough to believe it. On that I think the answer is a resounding YES.

    2. ShameScam is an extremely experienced IMITATOR and MANIPULATOR. Would I be surprised if all the evidence indicating Shamscum is behind the AAPL price decline turned out to be true? NO.

      Does ScabiesShite have much of a future as a manipulative parasite? Of course not. They’ve already skimmed the suckers in the phone market and are on the down slope. Karma is a nasty old bitch.

      Apple is sitting pretty and will joyfully survive and innovate, as per usual, on into the future for our joyful benefit. Just watch! 😀

    1. Actually, the article here at MDN entitled “Apple analysts scramble to lower their June estimates” may indicate that the manipulators are setting themselves up to have UNDERestimated Apple’s recent quarter, giving them room to PRAISE Apple effusively and run it up in value again.

      Then they’ll either move along to manipulating a truly vulnerable stock, like Google’s, or they’ll play games with AAPL all over again. This is what desperately stupid Wall Street scum do when they don’t know how to be actual capitalists, and don’t care to learn. They just want free $$$.

    1. I think there are many things that can drive Apple down further but very few things can drive it back up. Apple is going to have to show solid iPhones sales before the stock rises appreciably. It seems there’s nothing good ever taken for granted with Apple. Apple is no longer getting free passes like most tech companies do. The constantly falling P/E shows that investors have no confidence in the company.

      I truly believe it would be foolish for anyone to take the risk of buying Apple before earnings call, but I’ve been wrong before because I honestly don’t understand Apple’s share price movement. It just seems like Apple’s share price can only go down because no one with money cares about the company anymore. No one can seem to get any money out of Apple anymore apart from dividends. For all intents and purposes, Apple appears to be running a covert operation.

      1. LB48…..
        “The constantly falling P/E shows that investors have no confidence in the company.”

        Here again we see some one take a number and BLOW it out of normal use. If Apple made less money and had more debt then these numbers would actually look better. Right?

        Maybe people should buy Amazon. You know Sell Billions and only make a few million means its a great company!!

  1. It is likely (very) this quarter results will decrease sequentially and, hopefully not, year on year too. If that’s the case then we’ll go down hill a little more the next few weeks (~ 35 to 50).

    If during next earnings call they don’t say anything, like dividend increase or something/anything convenient for investors to stay in, that could mitigate any negative results, then don’t hold your breath.

    Remember that Apple does NOT mention anything related to [upcoming] products in conference calls, or anything about [future] deals, etc. so, the only thing they could offer/say/announce in the earnings call would be financial related.

    Any other suggestions or thoughts??

  2. It’s easy to sell AAPL since so many big investors made a lot of money on the big ride up. My modest take is that those same investors sense a significant global slowdown on the horizon.

  3. of course. This is what the manipulators have created for you. I wish I had sold out at $700 so I could re-buy now. AAPL is gonna be a better company for all the bullish*t wall street has slung at them. At least I hope so. It should be a galvinaizing force for them to prove everyoe wrong….AGAIN (for the one millionth time)

      1. Obviously you don’t know anything about investing other than buying something and holding it forever. How smart does that look today? AAPL is down $300 since September. I’m not a speculator I’m just not stupid enough to hold onto something and lose that much money. $300 per share is a lot of money to lose by not selling. And it’s not just on paper. It’s a lost opportunity to save yourself a lot of money. There’s no way to argue against that. Then there is the $300 per share upside that you will make if the stock goes back to its original September $700 price. Again, very easy to understand. Selling something and making a profit is not speculating. Buying shares of Apple is prohibitively expensive now, thus the option route is much more affordable. And potentially options give you a greater bang for your buck. Options/futures, they’ve been around forever. Just because you don’t use them doesn’t mean that they’re bad. Buying puts on a stock that is dropping is not speculating. Any more than buying calls on a stock that is rising is speculating. But I appreciate the fact that you’re interested enough in me to repost my thoughts. I’m flattered. You must have a lot of time on your hands. Jealousy is a terrible thing. We’re all pulling for you.

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