As Apple’s nears 40% collapse, a lesson in market psychology

“Just as major stock indexes are peaking, Apple (AAPL) is already in a bear market,” Ron DeLegge writes for ETFguide. “After hitting its $705 peak in the fall of 2012, Apple hit a fresh 52-week low today. The stock has now fallen 38% from its peak (20% price decline from high is generally accepted definition of ‘bear market’) to the $434 range.”

“Meanwhile, the herd mentality of piling into what everyone else is piling into (as they did with Apple) is causing a lot of pain,” DeLegge writes. “‘Common sense and careful logic show that it is impossible to produce superior investment performance if you buy the same assets at the same time as others are buying,’ said the great Sir John Templeton. Too bad nobody was listening.”

DeLegge writes, “Investors who got caught up in the emotion and bought at the wrong price, are getting creamed… Apple’s vicious decline is a precursor of what’s ahead for the rest of the stock market. Watch out when a leading stock turns into a laggard in such a short period of time. In case nobody bothered to tell you, stocks always fall faster than they rise.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: If this continues, Tim Cook will quickly go from worrying that his seat is getting quite hot to how to keep his head off a stick.

When Tim Cook became Apple CEO on August 24, 2011, AAPL hit a day high of $378.96. AAPL currently stands at $430.53. That’s a gain of $51.57 or 13.6%. If this thing dips below $400…

Steve Jobs had no leash; Tim Cook’s, while long, grows shorter as shareholders watch the red ink flow. (We get email: a growing number of AAPL shareholders are not happy.)

Apple shareholders should be patient. This swoon is not based on Apple’s fundamentals or performance (save for Cook & Co.’s total mishandling of the new iMac launch, causing Apple to largely miss the entire Christmas sales season and which, it bears mentioning, would have turned last quarter’s “miss” into a “beat,” hence AAPL would likely be closer to knocking on $800 than $400 today. It would have been nice for someone to ask Tim about that little fsck up during the recent shareholders’ meeting. We would’ve liked to hear his answer). That parenthetical item aside, Cook surely has a plan and has already run Apple for years, including for much of the time Steve was sick. No need to even begin thinking of throwing the baby out with the bathwater, yet.

So, patience, patience… but regardless: Cook & Co. need to up their game, not only PR-wise (staunching misguided speculation, blunting rampant fomenting, answering critics, producing better marketing, etc.), but in terms of releasing some meaningful products in a much more timely fashion. The quicker, the better.

Here’s to looking back on all this ASAP as a momentary (albeit nearly half a year now) blip from which many ultimately profited and not the precursor to a stock market crash.

Related articles:
The last 6 times Tim Cook has talked, Apple’s stock has dropped – March 1, 2013
Apple shares hit new 52-week low – March 1, 2013
Apple’s ‘disappointing’ quarter the most profitable quarter for a tech company in history – February 7, 2013
Apple CEO Tim Cook: ‘No technology company has ever reported these kinds of results’ – January 24, 2013
Apple’s all-time record quarterly earnings disappoint – January 23, 2013
After posting new all-time record revenue, Apple shares collapse in after-hours trading – January 23, 2013
Apple reports record results: $54.5 billion revenue, $13.1 billion profit, $13.81 EPS – January 23, 2013

85 Comments

      1. The momentum seen in Samsung’s products shows that the iPhone 5 is not as adequate as Apple thinks it is, in the eyes of many end-users. Apple is losing its grip on the market by missing the desired screen size vs portability ratio on the part of users. It’s not about what the phones can do, but how comfortable it is to use them.

          1. If stated 3 years ago like I did it would be perfect. Duh anyone who denies it is wrong and should otherwise have the option to buy the iPhone mini. The current model.

          1. So what will you say when Apple makes the larger iPhone? Because clearly if they make it you are wrong. There is no middle ground here. You state clearly that Apple consumers do not want the larger iPhone. Most of us know better. When Apple makes it it will be irrefutable proof that you’re completely wrong. Apple should have it available now. That is part of the reason the stock has dropped so precipitously. The other reason is they have no affordable emerging-market iPhone. That one two punch has hit Apple right in the guts. And they are reeling. Do you like your crow with mashed potatoes or a baked potato? No larger iPhone eh? You must be hanging out with Derek Currie. He’s the sniveling little prick that kept telling everyone that Apple would not make the iPad mini. And when Apple makes the larger iPhone it will outsell the current iPhone size 5 to 1. They won’t make the current size iPhone more than one refresh after the larger iPhone arrives. iCal this.

            1. No middle ground?
              I think you are projecting…I certainly don’t want a larger phone and as far as I can see – nobody who isn’t obsessed with featuritis wants one either. But this is not proof of anything other than that there ‘is’ middle ground.
              Then you make the dumb assumption that Apple is ‘reeling’ because you think the stock market shenanigans ‘are’ the company. How difficult is it to understand that Apple always goes its own way – it doesn’t pander to angry wacko posts on fanboy sites and it certainly doesn’t need to take instruction from self-interested analysts and hedge fund squatters in total ignorance of basic fundamentals.

            2. Apparently you can’t see past the end of your nose. Dumb assumption? Look stupid, Apple is down $275. I think most of us call that reeling. But you’re right about the wacko post from fanboys. I couldn’t have described you any better.

            3. Now you’re just trolling and making it personal. And you are still in denial that Apple continues to post increased earnings, more sales from quarter to quarter and 80% of the profits in the mobile sector. What more do you want?
              Again, Wall St. manipulations by greedy hedge funds are nothing to do with Apple. They do not run the company, nor should they.
              Answer this. When the share price was on the bubble, did that fact make Apple more efficient, did it produce more sales or make them better engineers? No, no and no. The share price has NOTHING to do with how Apple operates…zilch, so the sooner you get over your misplaced sense of entitlement, the better.

            4. You are forgetting that Apple is selling EVERY iPhone they can manufacture in the two sizes they sell now. Why would they complicate their product line with a third size and fragment iOS further? They have the size the majority of the customers want. . . and are kicking Android devices butts in the US market with the three models the last two quarters.

        1. The numbers seem to show Samsung is now falling behind as the channel stuffed with “shipped” units begins to choke.
          Most people you see using samsung phones suffer; touches don’t work, the cant answer or unlock the phone. It’s pretty funny really.

        2. @Omega – Without denying the need for ongoing improvements at Apple (which I believe implies both larger and smaller iPhone models) , it is worth pointing out that Apple is selling more smartphones than Samsung in the only large market where the two have competed head-to-head for five years.

          As Apple gains more exposure, signs more carriers and opens more stores in other countries, I see no reason why it won’t succeed overseas.

    1. DTriny,
      Yes and no. Marketing efforts can be very hard to gage. If Apple posts ads about how good its doing, it could actually harm the publics image of Apple.

      And MDN “This swoon is not based on Apple’s fundamentals or performance (save for Cook & Co’s total mishandling of the new iMac launch, causing Apple to largely miss the entire Christmas sales season and which, it bears mentioning, would have turned last quarter’s “miss” into a “beat,” hence AAPL would likely be closer to knocking on $800 than $400 today.”

      I declare total BS on you. Wall Street seems to go the way it wants to go, NEVER based on facts but rather…. who knows what. Hey, if Apple every hits 200$, I will get a mortgage on the house to buy more shares. !!! Remember in the past when Wall Street was never happy with what Apple came back with.

      JAT
      en

      1. Mortgage on the house? That makes no sense at all. Why take the risk when you can just back away? Steve Jobs is dead, so there may be no comeback. But aside from that you’re gambling against the hedge funds even if Apple does have some great products coming. And then there’s that loss of market share sword always having over Apple’s head. When fundamentals are totally disconnected there’s no guarantee of anything going as planned. To cap it off, if Wall Street is truly a casino then you’re taking a huge gamble on Apple paying off.

    2. I’ve been calling it ‘The Age Of Marketing’ and pointing out that Marketing Morons rule via Marketing-As-Management. IOW: FUBAR.

      Rejoice and value Marketing Mavens, for they are the lovers of mankind. Not these scheming parasitic bozoids.

    3. More than PR is needed.

      “Cook & Co. need to up their game, not only PR-wise (staunching misguided speculation, blunting rampant fomenting, answering critics, producing better marketing, etc.), but in terms of releasing some meaningful products in a much more timely fashion. The quicker, the better.”

  1. Just a day or two after Apple added its name to a list of companies endorsing institutionalized sodomy with taxpayer benefits to the Supreme Court? A connection perhaps similar to liberal Hollywood types watching their careers collapse after they ram their social re-engineering agenda down our throats? I’d have dumped my stock yesterday if I still had any! Tim Cook has chosen his political path, and has chosen to undo history and offend 50% of the country! Stock collapse is due to liberal ideology within the company and the demonization of capitalism! People r sick of Tim Cook’s master plan to change the world, starting with the redefining marriage offending all 3 major religions!

    1. Wow so much bigotry!

      Why not go all the way and defend the killing Jews while you’re at it. After all they offend some religions.

      Please dispose of the broomstick you have stuck up your ass properly when you’re done being uptight.

      1. I’m Christian and iMaki is a imbecile. Love is the core of the faith per Jesus — Love God & Love Neighbor is the whole law and prophets — and per 1 John — God is love. IF IT’S BASED IN LOVE it’s of God no matter how much that freaks anyone out. Same-sex unions and benefits are excellent, Christian, and a sign of a positively transforming society. There is no other answer that is based in faith.

    2. You are totally correct iMaki. And your gentle, loving creator in heaven hates Apple. He hates gays, and blacks and Jews, and Muslims. In fact, he only loves you. And, he’s not so sure about that. Now go sodomize yourself.

      Google’s stock is about $800. And they have ritualistic sacrifices on their campus every day. didn’t you see the article about the comparison between Apple’s donut and google’s campus. surely, they are the mark of the devil.

    3. Maybe now MDN and it’s readers will correlate all the tea party and right wing hostility, anger, hate and presence in this forum since Apple’s accent from 400 to 700… To the Apple attack mentality that has come to roost?

      1. Breeze you forget that before Obama, there was no TEA Party, or OWS for that matter. Just goes to show what happens when you hire someone you think is really great but turns out they aren’t all that… be it a computer company CEO or the first black president.

        1. True, but the virus mentality and blind hate for anything smart intelligent or thoughtful was never as blatantly blatant nor rabid to the extent of the mindless zombies of the TP. It’s like Samsung bought the Jerry Springer audiences and sic’ed em on US

      2. Modern NeoCONs equate things like this:
        GOP = Gawd’s Own Party.

        Lovin’ Gawd, Hatin’ Gays & Guns for Evurbodee.
        Wayne The Peter (La Pierre) is the prophet and Grover “No Tax” Norquist his only son.

    4. @iMaki

      I am always amazed at people like you. I don’t believe that Apple said that you should become a homosexual did they ? In fact gay marriage doesn’t affect you at all, it only affects your ability to tell other people how they should live their lives.

      Sorry, if you look in the mirror, it is people like you that are what is wrong with our country. People came here and founded this country to be free from people like you telling them how to live.

    5. You know, you’re right! People choose their products not based on what problems they solve, what value they add, how reliable they are, they choose products based on what theopolitical view the CEO has! Wow, the intelligence eruption here is mind-boggling!!

  2. Dear Tim,

    Instead of worrying about where you were going to sit at the State of The Disunion or how much corporate money to give to promote “gay marriage,” perhaps you should have focused on iMacs and having them ready for Christmas?

    IMHO, your head can’t go on that stick soon enough.

    1. You are a pretty sick shareholder IMHO. How about you live your life and marry who you want and let other people marry who they want. Do you really believe somebody else should need YOUR approval to live their life in their own way.

      We are only on this earth for a short time so I believe that they should enjoy their time on earth without needing YOUR approval to marry who they want.

      Look in the mirror, you are a terrible person, and I believe you should have YOUR right to marry who you chose taken away by ME, how about that? If you think you know what is best for them, I think I know what is best for YOU. What about MY right to not allow a terrible person like YOU to get married? If you marry somebody of your own choosing, aren’t you now infringing on MY right to deny you that privilege?

  3. Be consistent: this is the result of manipulation. If it is manipulation the only way to stop it is by stopping the manipulation. The way you are writing is presuming that the market is responding to something real.

  4. Whining investors make me sick. WTF do they want?

    Do they want Apple to reveal their game plan, so cockroaches like Samesung and Google come along and do the same?

    We can’t even have a rumour – the iWatch – without Samesung coming out saying they’ll have one too! It’s bloody pathetic.

    Cook already said great stuff is coming.

    If you don’t trust Apple to do this and are too pussy to hang on just leave.

    1. “Whining investors make me sick. WTF do they want?”

      How about a MacPro worthy of the name and price? Add to that software that is ready for market when shipped unlike the eternal Beta that is the Apple standard these days.

      1. The Mac Pro and iMac do not warrant the crap being flung around here. If you really want to get into a tits ass fight over what should happen, all Macs would cease production immediately.

        I personally like Macs, however if it’s a numbers game then Macs loose.

        So sit down and wait for our precious Pro. It will come, as promised.

      2. Totally agree. The slide started when apple made the decision to aim at mediocrrity named final cut x. It sucks and is not and has not been adopted by any pro. Don’t even try to dispute me. I’m in the industry and nobody uses it. From that point on. No Mac pro no 17 inch Mbp. Needed. No attack at the p c market in enterprise so aim for the middle you get the middle. and please use normal looking people in your ads. Not these p.c mutant mixtures that reek third world.

  5. Maybe Tim Cook should realize that a lot had changed since Steve
    Jobs, perceptions are different now and all Apple executive must step up and make some bold moves. Haven’t seen anything since
    SJ, what the heck is going on in Appleville. Are they on vacation since? yeah, a lot has changed, mostly missteps!

  6. Another day of portfolio decimation. “… be patient”. The mishandling of the stock crush for 5 months is total incompetence. Similar to the “Cook & Co’s total mishandling of the new iMac launch” which never should have happened. When the PowerPC delayed the iMac release, Steve Jobs moved the Macs over to the Intel chip.

    “Apple shareholders should be patient.” Have you ever heard of a lifeguard telling a drowning swimmer to “be patient”, I will get to you someday. REALLY! “be patient”!

    1. I believe someone differentiated you here as a speculator as opposed to an investor… Try AIG where the fundamentals are as sound as the economy they just screwed and where other speculators are “fleeing” to for a replay of tea party tactics.

    2. Actually I have had a situation similar to that. A friend of mine was pulled into the rip. We both kept calm about it, and I managed to pull him out without getting caught in it myself.

      When we got back on to shore the lifeguard was waiting, patiently. He had seen that we were in trouble and was waiting to act but saw that we had gotten out of the difficulty ourselves.

      Sometimes staying calm is a bit like staying patient. When you bake a cake and there is still 15 minutes cooking time (get it, Cook, Tim)… it does not help to try to please those who want the cake now.

    3. Sorry for the double post but jersey, you never answered:

      B. Invest only in what you absolutely know and understand.

      C. Investments are never guaranteed.

      There are many Apple investors that have been doing exactly what you did with their money for upwards of 16 years, if you cant’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen. Apple stock has always been a roller coaster ride and not for the faint of heart or the hysterical.

      You of all people should know how to differentiate between a ‘real’ reason for the fall (ie: Apple is fucking up…) and ‘noise’. Long term investment (and concurring evident results) is the true measure of justified confidence and a quality investment. Apple meets that measure and beats it with flying colors. It took Steve Jobs his entire second term at the helm of Apple to perfect the Newton, before naming and shipping it as the iPad which you aptly named ” A Tsunami”

      Had it been up to Apple engineers and programers they would have released incomplete iterations of the iPad which would have tanked and disappeared long ago and we never would have seen the iPad because of that. Like Jobs said, it takes a lot more to say no to a product than just go ahead and release half baked stuff… In case you haven’t followed Tim cook’s profile before he was at the helm : he is a relentless boss and knows well how to crack the whip when needed.

      How on earth do you expect to transform a company like Apple (which took many years of climbing back to it’s deserving respectful position as the best company in the tech) from a national giant to a world reigning Consumer Electronics giant without a unique long term execution and plan?? Apple has always done things in ways that most people never saw till it was obvious…it’s challenges are huge – game changing products and results take time. Chill.

        1. Oh and…..
          B. When that roller coaster hits the top be smart enough to get out
          of it with a gain. Especially if it’s huge like last September!
          C. That roller coaster will drop down again so you can get back in.
          D. Don’t be foolish enough to watch as your profits melt away. You
          invested to make money. Down $275 since September. Don’t
          get that deer in the headlights look. Act! Have a plan. Don’t be
          greedy and stupid. You can bet that all those buy and hold
          investors wish it was September again!

  7. Fair weather friends are like fair weather investors, you can never count on them. Kinda like the difference between shit and shinola.

    Apple got to where it is today with real friends and unwavering fanfare.

  8. I guess if I try and let off steam due to my frustration, I’ll be branded as a trolling Apple hater. I’ll have to pass lightly on this one which is serious as a heart attack. Take one look at Apple’s P/E, excluding cash and you’ll see where this is going. Oil company territory. Apple is practically kissing P/E’s with Exxon and this is just the beginning. Apple is an 800 lb. gorilla standing in quicksand.

    1. Whose quicksand? Your imaginations? Some abstract fake pit of quicksand invented by manipulative crooks on Wall Street? What here is REAL and what here is nothing more than meaningless DESPERATION PANIC? What exactly does ANY of this have to do with the REAL Apple? Any of it?

      1. @ derek currie

        you stated previously you DO NOT EVEN OWN ANY AAPL

        so why the heck do you care so much about investors as in bashing apple investors all the time ( there must be more than 10 posts from you — a ZERO investor — in the investment articles today ) ?

        pissed off you didn’t buy at 15?
        no money to invest?
        no faith in apple?

        1. By invested do you mean financially, or does emotionally, technically, or how about intellectually, or even idealistically, count do those count? Does principally count? You know as in principals of relating to excellence and attention to detail? How about investment of time like a lifetime etc… Do those count as investments? How about recognition and of greatness? Are all of the above investments huh? Cause if they are, then there’s plenty to be fucking pissed about D. Oh, and not everyone can afford to be invested – that does not exclude them from appreciating Apple for giving them a superior computer user experience and in some cases richer lives for it, nor does it exclude them, pea brain from seeing stupidity run rampant to the umpteenth degree.

          1. dumbo did you notice that THIS was an article on 40% drop in apple stock Price i.e a FINANCIAL INVESTMENT ARTICLE.

            so what are gibbering about emotional investment and other fuk nonsense?
            like I said not interested in INVESTMENT discussion why the fuk do you all post here?

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