Analysts: Apple earnings need to overcome technical malaise

“To those who study technical stock charts, Apple Inc. looks broken,” Rodrigo Campos and Poornima Gupta report for Reuters. “Even though it is widely viewed to be undervalued after hitting an 11-month low this week and nine out of 10 brokerages recommend that investors buy or hold the stock, Apple shareholders could still be in for more rough times if technical strategists are right.”

“They note that trading charts show few price points where investors can expect clusters of buying to support Apple’s shares,” Campos and Gupta report. “For example, the stock’s medium-term momentum, based on its 50-day rate of acceleration, has been on a downward slope since March, but has not hit over-sold levels.”

Campos and Gupta report, “Apple has a chance to turn things around when it reports results for the December quarter on January 23… If Apple can substantially beat Wall Street’s subdued expectations, that would go a long way towards restoring confidence in the near term. It is not enough for Apple to just meet targets – that could cause shares to fall further in the short term, some analysts say.”

“Analysts on average estimate Apple’s fiscal first-quarter earnings per share at $13.41, down slightly from $13.87 in the year-earlier quarter. Revenue is seen up 18 percent at $54.7 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S,” Campos and Gupta report. “Wall Street estimates Apple sold between 47.5 million and 53 million iPhones, up considerably from the 26.9 million sold in the previous quarter, when the iPhone 5 had not made it to all markets. IPad sales are expected at 23 million to 25 million.”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Lynn Weiler” for the heads up.]


  1. Let’s compare the expectation of $13.41 EPS from AAPL trading at a P/E Ratio of 11.4 to, say, $0.07 EPS last quarter from AMZN, trading at a P/E Ratio of 3,855. Does it seem to you as though these two companies are being judged by the market on the same basis?

  2. And there is still a 1 week lead time on all of the iPad minis in the Apple Store. Maybe, a dollar earned selling an iPad is the same as a dollar earned selling an iPhone.

    Again, Apple will state, “We would have sold more if we could have made more.”

  3. But what did Apple say in their own guidance at the last quarterly announcement? Why don’t these bone-heads just stick to those numbers and be happy when they beat them. But noooo! They throw out wild guesses and manipulate the market with fake numbers and projections based on NOTHING!

    1. Seriously! What we have here is just a bunch of computers chasing other computers at nanosecond speed driving the stock price totally batty. It doesn’t look like an ordinary trader has a chance. If you want to make money on AAPL, just buy it and hold it. And maybe someday Apple will do something to assuage investors’ fears about the spastic stock movement.

  4. I am surprised Tim Cook doesn’t just say:

    We are not your mother or father, you are totally responsible for your money (or the money in your care). It’s your job to invest it wisely. If you honestly think the business risk on Amazon is some multiple less than Apple’s business, then you will be happy with the respective valuations as they have been for some time now.

    Our job is to run Apple in the best way we know how. That is actually what we have the most control over. Your needs and wishes are yours to deal with. We, as a team, will not make business decisions around products, pricing, distribution etc. based on your perceptions of share price value. If you like what Apple does, how it does it and the strategy we use, the invest in us up to your comfort level. If not then invest in other quality tech companies such as Amazon, Google, Samsung, Dell, Nokia, Microsoft, Intel, HP, etc.

    We are happy to inform on what we have accomplished, our sense of what we can realistically/cautiously achieve in the next quarter, as well other business issues that don’t ask us to divulge competitive information.

    Idon’t confuse your issues with Apple’s executives’

    Next question

    Personally I don’t think anything above is out of line, disrespectful, or inappropropriate.

  5. Google is leaving Apple in the dust after earnings ($28+), so look for more negative Apple news on the horizon. Investors are going to equate Google/Android gains with Apple/iOS losses and it will just be further proof that Apple is losing everything. Apple shareholders might as well forget seeing those types of gains even if Apple has a blowout quarter, which probably won’t be close to Google’s revenue percentage increase. Motorola’s losses were quickly glazed over as amounting to nearly no drag on Google.

    Tomorrow bodes poorly for Apple shareholders after Google’s big win. That’s one thing great about running a search engine. There’s no hard product sales numbers to nitpick over. It looks like this year is already becoming a lousy start for Apple shareholders.

    Both Google and Amazon were able to maintain their value all year long while Apple’s value fell off the table. That pretty much sucks from a shareholder’s point of view. Even lowly RIM’s share value is going through the roof so there’s little room for Apple to get any investor play at all.

    1. “Both Google and Amazon were able to maintain their value all year long while Apple’s value fell off the table.”

      Really? I thought AAPL was at $427 on 1/23/2012. I’d say it’s up about the same as Google (18% vs 19%), and AAPL is depressed whereas Google is not. Let’s see how it looks on Thursday.

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