The bear bites Apple

“Apple Computer is in a bear market,” John Nyaradi writes for MarketWatch. “On Sept. 19, Apple was trading at $702 per share. Unfortunately, the Bear came along and took a big bite out of the world’s largest company by market cap as the company’s stock closed on Nov. 13 at $542/share, down roughly 23% in less than two months.”

“On a technical basis, Apple now trades well below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages and a giant head-and-shoulders pattern suggests further possible downside action with next significant support in the $375-$400 level, some 25% below current levels,” Nyaradi writes. “Many die-hard Apple fans remain convinced that the current share price decline is a buying opportunity, and it might well be. However the bears will tell you that many investors felt the same way on Oct. 12, when AAPL was trading at $630 per share and that the company’s chart is forming an ‘Eiffel Tower’ pattern.”

Nyaradi writes, “Based on fundamental and technical headwinds, the party in Apple appears to be over, at least for now. While oversold and due for a technical bounce, Apple is clearly in a downtrend that shows no sign of ending anytime soon. A bear bite for Apple is significant because the company is the 900-pound gorilla of the U.S. stock market, and as Apple goes, so goes the market.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Staring at stock charts and seeing pretty architecture/tourist traps is an interesting way to make investment decisions.

Related articles:
If not for an obscure accounting rule, Apple would have beat Street in Q412 EPS – November 14, 2012
Analyst ups rating on Apple to ‘Strong Buy’ – November 14, 2012
Barclays reiterates $800 target price on Apple Inc. – November 14, 2012
Analysts reiterate $750-$950 price targets on Apple stock – November 14, 2012
Investors don’t understand Apple’s math – a mistake – November 14, 2012
Who’d be nuts enough to sell Apple? – November 9, 2012

31 Comments

    1. This gonna be fun watching all the Dumbocrats bitch and moan, seeing their investment evaporate under Emperor Odumbo.

      Good luck with your socialism. I’m sure this time it will work.

      Hahahahahahahahaha!

      1. Your perspective on things is both sad and ill-considered, Ubermac. Because, if the U.S. economy tanks, it will take down the rest of the world with it. So, no matter where you live, you will be negatively impacted to some degree.

        Perhaps you (and a few other notable participants in this forum) would be better served by attempting to find positive and constructive ways to interact with the rest of the world.

      2. Funny you said this.

        I heard a rumor that the GOP was dragging the market down to make Obama look bad..

        Funny thing irony is.. Sink the ship to kill the admiral, while everyone is on the same ship.

    1. “Back at the gathering of governors in Las Vegas, former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour didn’t mince words, calling for a “brutally honest assessment of what we did,” and recommending a “a very serious proctology exam” for the GOP.”

  1. How long can Apple really be at a 12 PE when it is the lead tech innovator and the entire industry gets bang for every dollar of Apple’s R&D buck, while AAPL enjoys the best profit margins in the business? There is support at 530 – if bears could get it to 529 it would auto kick out tons of stop loss positions and the options writers would be out a cool billion on Friday.

  2. this is my experience….I sold my MacPro this year, bit old and long in tooth. Had planned on replacing with nice, new, speedy iMac, but sorry Apple you messed up on the iMac range this year….no superdrive, measly 2.5″ drive in the 21.5″ iMac and no way for the user to upgrade the RAM or HD. Don’t want a 27″ monster on my desk either. Plus if I did want one, I’d have to wait weeks or months. So it’s a MacMini for me and a cost effective NEC screen to replace the 23″ ACD.
    I was also going to replace my 2009 15″MBP with something similar, but that one’s been scratched for a refurb of last year’s 13″ MBP.
    I live in the UK, there just isn’t a whole lot of cash to go around. So rinse, repeat across the UK and Europe (now officially in it’s second recession) and you have many of the factors contributing to investors fears right now and it’s not just Apple feeling the heat.
    Are we following Japan with their ‘lost decade’….recession after recession and abysmal growth? Who knows, but I do know that the very folk governments and economists are relying on to pull our economies out of the mire are just not out there spending like it’s 1999.

    1. I’m awaiting the new Mac Pro, but not much longer. If Apple effs it up in a sealed box with some ridiculous form factor it will be hackintosh time for me.

      Same for displays- no more glossy BS for me. The LED Cinema is great in a very dark room. The effing glare will drive you mad.

      Of course Apple gives not a shit about the workstation/pro markets. All effing laptops and iToys all the time.

      1. a MacMini stuffed with RAM, upgraded CPU and an SSD actually beats out old 2008 MP in some tests. Fortunately for my work I don’t need some teraflop GPU.
        (I have to agree about a hackintosh, that may well be the next step should my little MM be overwhelmed.)

  3. Do the math. Calculating the differential between selling AAPL now in the 530s and paying 15% capital gains tax, versus estimates of projected cap gains tax increases to 30 or 35% once the stock recovers to $700, and you get a similar number. AAPL is somewhat unique, in that so many investors have a huge profit in it. So currently AAPL is priced at the present value of one’s profits versus a perceived risk of taking higher profits with higher taxes in 2013. Of course, other things can happen, the cap gains rate might remain at 15% (somewhat doubtful), or rise a lesser amount, or vary depending on one’s total income (the president’s proposal). Point is, until the company reports something significant, the stock price will be weighed upon by the expectation of higher capital gains taxes.

    1. OK, but I am being told by financial advisors to expect 20% on LT cap gains, so where are you getting your info from?

      I’d actually like to see a graduated cap gains tax that rewards ULT investments of 5-10+ years with a 10% cap gains… LT with 20% and short term with 50% cap gains.

    1. I’ve always been fascinated, in a purely clinical sense, with people like you, those who take unmitigated pleasure in the discomfiture of others. Sadists come in all shapes, sizes, and specialties, and those like you are most intriguing. Certainly, your bitch of a mother must be very proud of the unmitigated filth she spawned.

        1. Thank you for the kind words. And there are plenty more awaiting you the more you delight in others’ losses. You revel in our pain? So will we in yours, for you are no Apple user. You are a “registered” user, but a Win/Droid troll nonetheless. What goes up always comes down, right? We’re seeing that right now. But what goes down can go up just as easily. Did you buy AAPL at 80 four years ago? No? Hmmm. Many, many, MANY of us did (and even at lower prices over the years), and we have reaped the profits a thousand fold. Enjoy your vitriol now, kobold, for a change is gonna come.

          1. Since you are probably a delusional Conservatard in mourning after Obama’s ass-whipping delivered to the Republicans, I’ll cut you some slack.

            I bought my first Apple stock in 2001 at less than $10/share- less than $5 today adjusted for a split @ $90. I bought my first Mac at the PX at Robinson Barracks in Stuttgart Germany in 1985- trading up from an Apple II.

            Apple is overpriced- I don’t care what the bozos on CNBC and Faux Bidness say. They both also thought the Repugnicans were going to take the Senate and elect RawMoney and Lyin Ryan. How’d that work out, Sparky?

      1. Actually I read tons of rumors every time I scan my aapl centric tweets – and you know what – it’s all negative. Know what else? It’s all coming from MDN, Macgasm, CultofMac, et. al.

        All of these blog spots that are supposed to be Pro Apple should really rethink how they headline their initial posts. Sticking big bold headlines with negative rhetoric about Apple, and then burying a positive “take” somewhere inside of the article really doesn’t work.

        So here’s a suggestion MDN: The next time you post an article that, yet again, predicts the complete and total demise of Apple by the end of the week, try headlining it with something like, ANOTHER WALL STREET ANAL-CYST IS GOING TO EAT IT.

        Love,
        Mr. Peabody

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