Analyst: Google could disappear in five years

“Google may be on its way out as the dominant player in search, according to one analyst — and could even ‘”disappear’ in as little as five to eight years if the competitive pressures that ultimately claimed other search giants start to take root,” Cadie Thompson reports for CNBC.

“In the wake of a surprisingly weak earnings report, Eric Jackson, Ironfire capital founder and managing member, said Google could easily find itself fending off the woes that eventually took hold at embattled Yahoo,” Thompson reports. “‘They could disappear in five to eight years and disappear in the sense that Yahoo used to be the king of search. Now, for all intents and purposes, Yahoo has disappeared,”‘ Jackson said Thursday on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street.

Thompson reports, “The rise of mobile will lead consumers to want to search in new ways, which may open the door for others to enter the search space. The number one contender may just be Apple — one of Google’s fiercest competitors, he said… “‘I don’t think typing in a blue box is the ideal format for a mobile world. And I think the best opportunity out there to displace Google in this area is probably Apple’s Siri.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote earlier this week: “What you are seeing is a paradigm shift. Until mobile ad rates catch up and unless Google can figure out a way to monopolize it they way they did with the desktop (hint, they can’t, thanks to Apple), they are a declining one-trick pony. If they don’t come up with some new, meaningful revenue stream, they are in for a world of hurt. Android isn’t it – they make little or no money from it and the users are cheapskates, so the ad rates Google can command for Android suck. The desirable users – the ones with money to spend and the will to spend it – are on iOS and seeing Apple iAds.”

Google’s going to rue the day they got greedy by deciding to try to work against Apple instead of with them.MacDailyNews Take, March 09, 2010

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Joe Architect” for the heads up.]

Related articles:
Google results, filed by mistake, miss; shares dive – October 18, 2012
Why does Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer consider Apple’s Siri the perfect search engine? – October 19, 2012
Apple hires Amazon A9 exec Stasior to run Siri unit – October 15, 2012
With Siri and new alliances, Apple takes on Google search – June 21, 2012

92 Comments

  1. Siri is the future of search.

    In 5 years time no one will be typing in a search field on a website at all

    It’s all going to be voice search and as is the norm apple is there 1st.

    1. To add to what you are saying, I think that searches will be more integrated into what we are doing at the time. If my movements are being tracked, and my buying habits are known, it may be that as I approach a certain location, the search tools may prompt me to look at, for example, snow tires for my car when in October, I happen to visit a local auto supply place. One app I use now, OmniFocus on my iPad, allows me to base tasks on location so that when I go to that location, I am prompted to perform certain tasks.

      The search capabilities could include locations, my buying habits, what I have identified on a to do list, and probably a lot of other things such as biometrics (Minority Report). I realize that the systems we have can do all of these things now, but what I believe will happen is that they will get a lot better at it and there will be better integration (and hopefully voluntary). All of this course would require tools that are flexible and can work on multiple platforms. Google doesn’t seem to be nearly as successful at Apple in moving towards this. To my inexpert eye, Apple appears to be focussed whereas Google has a shotgun.

    2. Who types these days? Voice search on RIM OS7 everyday without a glitch but of course relying on 4 search engine options but nonetheless no need to type.

      Siri is old news and all Apple is doing is what Samsung is doing with S voice and if Mango 7.5 Windows Phone is any indication as to what Windows Phone 8 will offer, the voice activated space will be crowded. Nuance have been at it for at least a decade.

  2. Well Bob, I have to agree with you too. Google isn’t going anywhere. They’re too diversified with their search, Android, YouTube, etc.

    Google is a company that doesn’t sit still. It constantly continues to improve its services.

    Any company (including Apple) that doesn’t continue to innovate will wither away. Google has proven itself as a leader.

    So really the author doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

    1. Google just puts out a bunch of crap to see what sticks, nearly everything in beta, most projects failing, no vision, just trial and error. They had innovations in search, everything else has been luck (which isn’t much), android is a disaster financially and they are billions in the hole with the purchase of Motorola. That copying, arrogant, unimaginative company can’t die soon enough.

    2. Google is in Ad sales period.

      They lose money on Android even though they sell Ads on a lot of Android devices. They have already lost $12 billion on Motorola. They will never make that money back. None of their other innovations enhance the bottom line.

      Google is an Ad company. If they can’t get their Ads on Apple, Microsoft or most Android devices, in the future, they will die.

  3. It will take years before processor, memory and algorithms are capable of implementing voice control as seemless and elegant as the computer portrayed on Star Trek NG. For now Siri and all others are inferior and cumbersome. Can’t wait for the day when you can query and use voice in a productive way. Like STNG.

    1. BUT, they’re a LOT better than “Read 42 passages to me FIRST so I can build an idea of what your intonation sounds like before you can start using me PLUS don’t let anyone else use me or I’ll start misunderstanding you”.

      Yes, where we are is not like STNG, but we’re not far away. The wide parsing of text, is there, all that needs to happen now is to build a contextual parser on that (If the user is in the NW, they did really mean Stillicum and not steel eyecup) and to begin to build “catchers” for all those times Siri says,”Let me search Google for you”.

      The good thing about the latter is they have recorded EVERY time people have tried to use Siri and Siri failed. SO, they’ve got an idea RIGHT NOW of what are the next most important phrases they should have recognized.

      “Productive” doesn’t have to mean “miracle queries”. Just the other day, I asked someone when the next home game for an NFL team was. They didn’t know so, on a lark, I just thought I’d throw Siri a bone. I was surprised that I got the right result! That was a productive search that saved me from having to click through an additional link to get to a page (all these guys make money from page views, so they don’t want you to get the results just from viewing a Google search results page).

    2. Since i see “productive search” as something that gives me instant info without having to go to Google, I tried this query just to see if it would work in both Google and Siri.

      “What’s the first home game in december for the atlanta falcons”

      While Google gets it right for the NEXT home game (and displays the result without requiring a link to another page), the query above would have required another tap to show their ENTIRE schedule where Siri returned the information I was looking for.

      It didn’t show JUST the first game, though, it showed all the December games. So, not exactly what I was looking for, but it was good information that didn’t require Google.

    1. This. I’ve been wondering why it is taking Apple so long to do so. Once this happens, people will feel totally comfortably just speaking their searches to their Macs and iOS devices, and typing searches into a browser will become a thing of the past. And since Apple will route searches elsewhere, Google will be I a world of hurt.

      Even more so tha Apple, just imagine if MS got smart and integrated voice search that leveraged Bing and other non-Google sources into every version of Windows. That would definitely be game over for Google.

      Google’s approach to an OS is flawed in their ChromeOS strategy (again, just them trying to sell a Google services browser as an OS so they can advertise to you) so if Apple and MS both implemented non-Google voice search across their platforms, then Google’s days would be numbered indeed.

  4. Apple isn’t much better. They’re spoon-feeding the general population to extract as much money as possible. They are very well aware of the current search capabilities of current servers (think IBM’s Watson). Google is a highly outdated search utility; having to search and grope through Google’s search engine’s results is absurd!

    Apple will agonizingly slowly introduce new features and capabilities of Siri, eventually (on Apple’s timetable) it will be more of an “Answer Machine” than a search engine. For example, “Siri, what are the top 3 websites featuring rural Gay life?”, and it will give you just the top 3 sites by popularity. None of this “found 186,997 results”, with the first dozen having paid Google for the privilege of being first, although they have nothing to do with the actual result.

    But, there is nothing new about a few greedy people on a corporate board eventually mucking up their own product. We just have to see how long it takes Apple now that Steve is gone. Unless corporate America allows a startling new technology (i.e., optical or quantum computers) to emerge, Apple will continue their anemic release of annual hardware, and slowly move into the more profitable realm of data control and manipulation; what Google tried and failed to do. Ultimately, leading Apple’s directors to more power, control, and thus money.

  5. Google is the first word in search. They figured out how to monetize with ads. Then they decided to compete with Apple in mobile by stealing Apple’s ideas.The problem they had is they couldn’t steal Steve Jobs’ single-minded focus on great products and great customer service. Steve Jobs knew that if you focus on the customer experience, the money will take care of itself. As long as Apple maintains that focus, they can only be beaten by another company that isn’t focused on beating them, but instead on creating a better user experience.

    Google is all about the Benjamins, just like M$.

      1. Correct. Also, if you change your default search provider, Siri will use the one you have chosen for it’s search provider. You can also have her search whatever provider you’d like on each search by asking – “Siri, search Bing for why Google sucks”.

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