NPD: U.S. market may be too saturated for the new iPhone to beat the iPhone 4S’s record sales

“The NPD Group’s Stephen Baker chose Tuesday 9/11 — the day before the expected launch of Apple’s new iPhone — to pour cold water on what he calls the ‘growing expectation that this release will achieve the equivalent blowout sales success that the iPhone 4s enjoyed,'” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

Equivalent? As we reported Monday, conventional wisdom on Wall Street has it that the iPhone 5 will outsell the iPhone 4S by a wide margin,” P.E.D. reports. “Among the handful of analysts who were willing to venture a guess, estimates for iPhone 5 sales this quarter (i.e. in the eight days from 9/21 and 9/29) ranged from 6 to 12 million. It took Apple three days to sell 4 million iPhone 4S units last year. Topeka’s Brian White estimates by day 3, the company will have sold 5 to 5.5 million iPhone 5s.”

P.E.D. reports, “Stephen Baker begs to differ.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote on Sunday:

“The iPhone 5 will break all smartphone sales records – just like every single iPhone model before it.”


    1. @ MDN
      You are right, iphone 5 will break all records because very few people are going to buy this phone with same old boring design.

      @ Apple fans
      Try to accept truth. 😉

            1. Now you are just projecting, Gupta. Just because that is what you enjoy you can’t assume anyone else does it. But hey why you do with your phone is up to you. You don’t have to abuse or hate yourself for having an unnatural attraction to your Samsung phone. You might be the only one, but you don’t have to feel alone. I’m sure your masters at Samsung will send you a text with your snappy retort soon. I’m guessing you enjoy the way your phone vibrates up in dat dark space.

          1. Why are you here, asshole? In case your little mind hasn’t figured this out yet- this is an APPLE centric site, NOT a Shitdung or Hemroid/Gaggle centric forum. If your goal is to try and “reform” us or something, we couldn’t give a shit about anything you might have to say. So- just bugger off, ok?

            1. you guys need to chill out. Who cares if someone says something negative about the iPhone here and there. Why do so many people on here react like they are defending their very existence anytime someone says something negative. My house is like an Apple display room, but I couldn’t give a toss if someone doesn’t like them. Yes this is an Apple centric site, but why feed the trolls?!

            2. Very nice Balance. But it’s a small minority of Fanboys that are the rabid bigmouth haters. Most of us are just like you. We have used Apple stuff forever and love it but we realize it’s just a company it’s not anything personal. They don’t need defending because they are not our best buddy. I don’t defend Home Depot or Walgreens or Cosco if someone says something nasty about them. Why would I? That would be juvenile. And that’s what we’re talking about here mostly. Immature, juvenile fanboys.

  1. I think saturation would only help in this situation, there are many people who always upgrade to the newest iPhone available. One can always sell or pass down there old iPhone to family members etc.

    1. Why would you pick the day before to make a claim like this only to be brutally bludgeoned the next day being wrong? What does this guy have to gain except to look stupid? He stuck his neck out under the Apple iPhone 5 sale guillotine blade.

  2. Well, for all those people who bought an iPhone 4S, there were millions that still had a 4 or older phone (like me) that are due to upgrade. There are plenty of customers out there. Tomorrow I’ll happily be one of them. =)

  3. I’m still using a 4, and was recently asked by an AT&T salesperson if I’m looking forward to upgrading. Actually, the answer is no. I love my iPhone 4; it does everything I want and does it brilliantly. However, if I look into selling it and find that I can get a good price, I might upgrade and sell. I guess it will depend on market saturation. By the way, I still have my original unlimited data plan and will not willingly give it up.

  4. fwiw…

    according to phil schiller, each new iphone model has sold as many units as all previous models combined.

    on asymco, horace dediu turns that statement into a forecast a 170 million iphone 5 units sold in the 12 mos after launch.

    boy genius believes that gross margin on the 4s is around 75%.

    macrumors reports an average selling price of $659.

    170m x 75% x $659 = $84b

    1. Gross margins aren’t that high:

      The [court] filing, reported by Reuters, shows Apple earned gross margins of 49 to 58 percent on U.S. iPhone sales between April 2010 and the end of March 2012.

      And that’s for all iPhones, with larger margins on older products. In any case, the profit will still be a staggeringly large number…

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