Piper, iSuppli see end of ‘Wintel era,’ supplanted by Steve Jobs’ ‘Post-PC era’

“Piper Jaffray‘s chip analyst Gus Richard [today] reiterates a Neutral rating on shares of Intel, and a $23 price target, writing that the ‘Post-PC era surfaces,’ based on his expectation that a raft of computing devices will prove to be winners this holiday era, further ending the ‘Wintel’ era of computing, meaning the combination of Intel’s chips and Microsoft’s Windows software that dominated PC computing,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s.

“Richard sees Intel struggling to match prices of chips for the non-Wintel devices, including chips from competitor Nvidia, based on the technology licensed to Nvidia and others by ARM Holdings,” Ray reports. “Also today, market research firm IHS iSuppli weighed in on the end of Wintel, projecting processor and operating system share declines for both Microsoft and Intel: ‘Despite a flurry of activities to adjust to the changed realities of the technology industry, Wintel is expected to suffer a declining share of the “new” computer market, a category consisting not just of PCs but also of the much faster-growing smartphone and media tablet segments. Microsoft’s share of the operating system market for the three products combined is expected to slip to 33 percent in 2016, down from 44 percent in 2011, according to an IHS iSuppli DRAM Dynamics Report from information and analytics provider IHS. Meanwhile, Intel’s share of microprocessors will fall to 29 percent, down from 41 percent. At the same time, the total size of the market will double from 2011 to 2016, almost entirely due to the strong growth of the smartphone and media tablet segments.'”

Read more in the full article here.

Related articles:
The Windows PC sure looks like it’s dying – August 7, 2012
Apple kicks Wintel in the teeth; Windows PC market share plummets to all-time low – August 1, 2012
How Steve Jobs changed the game and forced Microsoft to try playing by Apple’s rules – June 21, 2012
Apple’s revolutionary iPad: The PC killer – March 22, 2012
Apple now worth more than double Microsoft’s market value – March 14, 2012
Wintel is falling apart: HP is the latest victim – August 19, 2011
Apple now worth more than Wintel (Microsoft and Intel combined) – June 3, 2011

31 Comments

  1. Sigh. It’s NOT the “Post-PC” era, but rather the beginning of the Mobile era. We still use PCs for many, many tasks that mobile devices just aren’t good at handling yet, and for the heavy lifting stuff. These guys make it sound like PCs (including Mac desktops and laptops) are going away.

        1. Sure they do. I have a Dell dual xeon rig from 2005 that is still running strong. Its running Windows 7 with all updates, can’t say the same about my 2007 mac mini, it is not officially supported by Mountain Lion but runs SL great.

          I also have a 1.7 Ghz. P4 no-name beige box built in 2002 that has been a NAS server 24/7 for about 3 years straight now. Its running FreeBSD and hasn’t had a Windows install on it since 2004.

          Now I’ll agree an install of Windows (any version) won’t last that long but the hardware generally holds up just fine. My xeon running Windows 7 needed a flatten and reload about 2 years ago. I could probably make the leap to Windows 8 with it but Win7 is the last version of Windows I’ll run.

          1. Total crap, in so many ways…

            First your $600 entry level Mac Mini will run Lion.
            The original core solo & core duo were 32 bit chips and simply not capable of running a 64 bit OS like Lion (but weren’t used in your ’07 mini which was a Core2Duo)
            So BS on your initial premise

            The fact that a $5-$10 dell server/workstation will run win7 (though no doubt very poorly) How many MacMini’s can you buy for $7K?
            Second premise is untrue (or at least misleading) and a truly stupid comparison to boot. (a 5K+ S/WS vs a $500 entry level box)

            Second P4’s were undoubtedly the worst series that intel has ever made (even Orienteli says this) It is incredibly inefficient (has horrible backplane thru-put) and is an extremely poor choice for a NAS, particularly at 1.7GHz (unless all you do is stream 64kbps mp3 from it) it is simply not capable of even a fraction of available gigabit bandwidth (our NAS’s routinely pull well above 50MB/s over standard copper Gigabit)
            That you keep it running is a testament to your stupidity, not your cleverness.

        2. My PC has been running for 10 years and it’s still working fine. And I have a customer who owns a Mac for a year and is already broken. So, it mostly depends how you take care of your computer. Most novice users bought their computer based on price only and don’t do regular maintenance and those are the 2 main problems.

  2. I disagree. It is precisely the post-PC era. Jobs’s metaphor with cars/trucks was perfect.

    There are very few people who need trucks for their personal transportation. For vast majority, cars are simply much better suited: smaller, more nimble, more comfortable, less noisy, more economic, easier to maintain, cheaper to buy, etc. The few that need to haul more things than can fit in a car (and need to do that fairly frequently) obviously need trucks. Today, cars greatly outnumber trucks, and homes with no trucks outnumber the ones with truck(s). Yet, there are still quite a few Americans who choose to buy trucks, even though they realistically have absolutely no need for them (i.e. they could satisfy completely their own transportation needs with a car). They simply prefer the knowledge that they can haul cargo, if they ever needed to.

    Exactly same situation is with computers / tablets, except that we are still in the early stages of that evolution. Vast majority of today’s population will meet their computing needs with a tablet. Many indeed are, but there are great number of those who buy computers, even though all of their computing needs would be satisfied with a tablet. This is where the numbers are slowly changing and eventually, the picture will pretty much line up with the cars / trucks one.

    1. I agree. It was Steve Jobs who coined the term “Post PC Era” and I am glad others are using to describe the shift mobile computing platforms. It COULD be called the Mobile Era as Bizlaw suggests, but Post PC Era evokes the decline of the Wintel hegemony better. And I like that. I like it a lot.

      1. But Bizlaw’s point is correct – we are far from a true post-PC era. A lot of people will use their iPhones and iPads for various purposes but I think most work (because of our PC shackles at work – Windoze or Mac) will still be done on a PC.

        It’s coming though – we just aren’t there yet.

        1. Well no one is claiming that PCs are extinct. But I think what we know as the PC will continue in form as workstations: high performance desk bound computers for heavy work. Truly “Personal Computers” will be of the mobile ilk. A shift is underway, and there are always blurred lines between one era and another. I’m just excited to be watching it unfold.

          1. Oh hell no. Any company who needs 1 tech per 5 computers of any kind is in the stone ages!

            At my work we have a healthy mix of PCs and Macs. We are looking to deploy iPads and all told we have close to 600 employees with an IT staff of less than 20 , 6 of them are actual support technicians (help desk) and 2 are desk side support. Our desk side guys and 3 of our help desk guys are apple certified.

            Our biggest break/fix hardware issue? Idiots who break their equipment. Oh I spilled something on my keyboard, I dropped my laptop and now I’m getting hard drive errors etc. etc.

            Our desktops we get a solid 3-5 out of them before we just swap them out to keep mostly current and with the way most hardware contracts are written its actually cheaper to dump them and stay on a service contract should something go wrong then deal with touch labor costs on equipment older than 5 years.

            Our laptops typically last 2 years if we are lucky, morons abuse the hell out of them and break them. They are a far bigger cost than any of our desktops due to the mobility factor.

            Apple Mac pros, macbooks, dell lattitudes and a lot of Lenovo desktops are all we run.

            Your IT director needs to be fired if its one tech per 5 computers! 🙂

    2. And some should of purchased a truck but got a car instead ….. And those guys will have to rent or find a truck to use when their car won’t get the job done ……

      Example is construction workers who does side jobs ….. Truck is needed but they need family car and they can’t afford both …..

      Yep, I’ll always be a truck guy but gotta admit I like my cars!

      So I will have both iMac and iPad ……

    3. There are vast tracts of North and South America where there is no pavement and gravel roads are few and far between.

      Same with Africa, Asia and Australasia.

      Europe and major North American cities are the exception. They don’t really need trucks.

      Everywhere else, there is still a big demand for 4 wheel drive vehicles.

      Cars vs Trucks is a poor analogy. Quill and India ink vs dictation to an iPad or iPhone is better.

    4. That’s why now I bought SUV instead of car/truck. It’s the best of both world and it has all-wheel drive as well. Same as computer, if there is one that can replace both tablet and laptop, I will go for it. It will simplify the efforts to sync everything through cloud service.

  3. It’s a good metaphor, except that the light truck segment has risen from about 15% to around 50% in the last few decades.

    In response to tighter consumption and emission regulations for cars in the 70’s the US car makers threw their R&D and advertising money at the light truck segment, which didn’t have to meet the new standards.

    That’s how millions of sedans and station wagons were replaced by SUV’s and Vans (n the light truck category). Fuel consumption showed little improvement while rollover injuries increased because of the higher center of gravity of the newly ‘necessary’ mall assault vehicles.

    1. Post-Windows is a bit too much. I know a lot of MAC users still use Boot camp or Parallel to run Win OS on their Mac. If Mac users can’t get rid of Win, how can you ask other people to dump it?

  4. All these “homes with cars” were built by people with “trucks”. All the roads that cars navigate are built with “trucks”. All the apps for iPod/Phone/Pad were built with Macs. The pages we navigate on our mobile devices are built and maintained by “trucks”. If you work for a major construction Co. you get issued a “truck”. Sadly, if you work for a major Corp. you will most likely get issued a PC . . . not a tablet.

    disclaimer: I drive a P.O.S. El Camino.

    1. Major corporations are not the leading edge. They’re the dying old guard. In the 21st century, people don’t work in cubicles stuffed into giant cubicle buildings. They work at home and on the road on their iPads. I have all but abandoned my Mac Pro.

      1. I don’t foresee most people work from their home or on the road. Too many distractions could happen when we work at home and your boss will not know if you are working or web surfing. Also of security issue of company data, ask Apple if they let employees to bring home their company development secrets.

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.