“‘We see a reasonable probability that Apple will miss consensus revenue expectations due to macroeconomic weakness in China and Europe, a product cycle lull in the iPhone, a later than expected introduction of the new iPad into China, and the late quarter introduction of new Mac notebooks.’ So begins the note to clients issued Friday by Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi in which he lowered most of his estimates, from iPhone unit sales to his top to bottom lines, for Apple’s third fiscal quarter — one of the factors that helped drive the company’s shares down $10.02 (1.63%) for the day,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.
P.E.D. reports, “Contrast that with the e-mail I received from Bullish Cross’ Andy Zaky after he met with Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster and Asymco’s Horace Dediu at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference last week: ‘After speaking with them, I think this could potentially be a blowout quarter. The most recent blowout quarters we’ve seen in Apple took place in fiscal Q1 2012, fiscal Q3 2011 and fiscal Q2 2010. So they don’t happen THAT often. I think this quarter makes for a good set-up.'”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: If we had to bet the house, we’d go with Zaky. Over Toni, we’d go with pretty much anybody. We’ll all know soon enough after market close this coming Tuesday.
Related article:
Apple to webcast Q312 earnings release conference call on July 24 – July 3, 2012
Which way?
Yes…
Buy on the rumor sell on the news…
buy the mystery, sell the history
Exactly what I did
Not the way it tends to work with Apple.
On the day of earnings the stock usually closes rather low, driven down by big money who want to force a pop.
Then after earnings, it gaps up. Usually.
Buy the analyst baloney, resell by the comment sandwich…
Imagine how much Apple saves in PR expenses because all these clowns are doing their PR for them.
Doesn’t the dividend payment and buyback start real soon?
Dividend of 2.65 quarterly begins this quarter with annual yield of about 1.8%. Better than treasuries and dividends will likely grow rapidly over time. Buybacks begin FY 2013 starting this October.
I’ll hold and ride it out.
A number of analysts have underestimated the favorable impact of geography, particularly emerging markets and China. Apple needs to be evaluated on the basis of product cycles and international leverage. Most analysts seems to look at product cycles and think domestic. Zaky has been very accurate.
Buy on dips
Ignore the Drips
I plan to do some straddles for insurance. My gut feeling is that there will be a drop of 10% but my heart says another quarter record. The Verizon report of lower iPhone sales, some suppliers reporting lower parts orders all tend to make me a bit nervous. I am now holding AAPL as more than 75% of my portfolio. My broker is against that even though I have made huge gains with AAPL. I got stung in Sept 2010 when I had a stop order on 1,000. aAPL was nearing $300 and some hedge fund or other caused a five minute drop to $274.90. Gone in a heartbeat. had to pay taxes on more yhan $250k profit. All cap gains but still. I am now back but this time I will use straddles, cannot lose too much that way. I intend to stay long, but have not added any since Nov 2011. Back in the nineties I lost hundreds of thousands potential gain on ADI as it lost half its value. Still have thousands of that stock. It does pay a divident, but never moves much. It lingers in the high 30s to low 40s, at one time above a hundred. Greed is a heartless mother I have found.
Toni and those asian “reports” are working for the hedge funds to drop price for a profit and quick buy. AAPL will have a grand slam quarter.
Well there are two choices – either up or down. Of course there could be no change.
I personally think Apple will have a huge quarter. Everyone is buying an iPhone. Even my bosses and peers who are usually PC centric have them now. The iPad 3 is in its first full quarter and those sales are probably off the charts. Mac sales are surely also increasing.
Whether the stock will go up or down will depend on whether the brokers are cashing in or deciding to let the stock make a big gain.
This is not the quarter for Apple to EPEAT any previous performances.
Ah… I see what you did there!
Down. It always seems to go down after an earnings report. Even if they make $11B in a quarter, it’d still drop. Stupid street.
Really? If you are so sure you can make a lot of money shorting AAPL. Me, while I think you could be right, i will hedge with straddles. I intend to stay long but I know I am not smart enough to predict the market. Even Buffett leaves AAPL alone, you know.
With nothing new and an eh.. Iphone coming youve seen the highest appl stock….
Where will earnings be this time next year, maybe the better question?
I suspect still strongly growing ….. Soon we will see bigger numbers from the desktops and laptops as the halo effect grows even faster …..
Windows 8 will help as well!