Apple’s Q212: How did the analysts do?

“Neither side scored a clear victory this time around,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune. “The professional analysts as a group were far too cautious. And our expanded cadre of independents showed signs of irrational exuberance.”

“But the list… which ranks 57 Apple (AAPL) analysts by the accuracy of their fiscal Q2 2012 revenue and earnings estimates, shows that the independents have once again bested the pros — their 14th win in 15 quarters,” P.E.D. reports. “The top eight spots were taken by indies, including four of the six “best analysts” whose estimates we used as a benchmark in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s earnings report.”

P.E.D. reports, “The top spot goes, once again, to Daniel (‘Deagol’) Tello, a Venezuelan blogger who has been posting earnings estimates since 2005… Last place went to Gabriel Dubois, an independent from the newly formed Braeburn Group who like many of his peers this quarter let his enthusiasm get the better of him, overestimating iPhone sales by nearly 9 million units and revenue by nearly $8 billion. Otherwise the bottom of the list was populated by pros who seem to have missed those photographs of Chinese iPhone buyers mobbing the Beijing Apple Store. How else could Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore, ISI’s Brian Marshall and Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty have submitted iPhone sales estimates of 26, 26 and 30 million units, respectively?”

Check out the complete scorecard in the full article here.

Related articles:
Topeka Capital raises Apple price target from $1,001 to $1,111 – April 25, 2012
Goldman Sachs ups Apple target price from $750 to $850 – April 25, 2012
Apple: Why did you doubt them? – April 24, 2012
Apple earnings crush analysts’ estimates yet again – April 24, 2012
MacDailyNews presents live notes from Apple’s Q212 Conference Call – April 24, 2012
Apple bulldozes Street with blowout $39.2 billion revenue; shares rocket in after-hours trading – April 24, 2012


    1. Each of the companies I had worked for offered 401k investments and stock matching opportunities. The financial advisers generally offered me 3-4 packages (conservative to high-risk options) to pick from; I waived them off and had opted all in for AAPL each time. We’re talking early 2000s. They were shocked. Putting all in one basket is not recommended; just not a sound plan. I nodded, then made sure that only AAPL is checked and moved on.

      1. My employer’s 401k allows shifting up to 50% of our balances into a self-directed account. I did so in 2009, and put the whole 50% into AAPL. That 50% is now 67%, while the growth fund mutual portion has subsided to 33%. The SDA has made 500% of what the growth fund side has made since 01/01/2012. If only they would let us put it all in an SDA.

  1. Thank you McD for your website as I can breakdown the Mac news between facts gossip or rumors!!!! Made me money $$$$ AAPL 🙂

    Yes do read on your own and watch out for fee paid analyst that are so wrong consistently!!!!!!!

    401k 🙂 Happy! Make your Money work Harder than you!!!!!!!!

      1. Well if those dickheads are getting paid for accuracy, then they shouldn’t be getting paid if their numbers fall out of certain bounds. Then they’re just freeloading.

  2. Does it really take nearly 60 analysts to make an investor choose Apple as an investment? I’m only saying.

    Both Priceline and Intuitive Surgical have less than 20 analysts covering them. It’s not really the number of analysts covering a stock that makes a stock a decent buy.

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