Apple’s Q212 earnings estimates: ‘Pro’ vs. ‘amatuer’ analysts

“In the three and a half years that I’ve been pitting the analysts who cover Apple (AAPL) for Wall Street against the growing cadre of independent analysts who do it for fun (and, presumably, their own profit), I’ve never seen a gap this big — either in dollar or percentage terms,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“According to Thomson/First Call, the published consensus of 42 professional analysts as of Friday was that Apple will report earnings of $9.78 on revenues of $35.88 billion for the quarter that ended yesterday, up 53% and 45.5% year over year, respectively,” P.E.D. reports. “The independents, who for a host of reasons tend to be both more bullish and more accurate, beg to differ. Among the 16 I’ve heard from so far, the consensus is that Apple earned $12.66 on sales of $42.68 billion in fiscal Q2, up 98% and 73%, respectively.”

P.E.D. reports, “That’s a gap of $2.88 (30%) in earnings and a whopping $6.8 billion (19%) in revenue.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Note: Apple is due to report the results of the company’s fiscal second quarter 2012 in a few weeks (mid-late April; firm date TBA).

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

Related articles:
AAPL Analyst Smackdown: Once again the ‘pros’ blew it, humiliated by the ‘amateurs’ – January 25, 2012
Apple stuns Street with massive $46.33 billion record revenue; all-time record Mac, iPhone, iPad sales – January 24, 2012


  1. As an Apple shareholder, I believe that guys like Zaky and Dediu are just wasting their time because they like to play with numbers and charts. Their findings don’t do a damn thing to help Apple’s share price go up any faster or higher. They need to get a real job, make some money and invest it in Apple stock and that would be to my best interest. Do big investors even care about what the amateur analysts do? Is there some Dediu counterpart that tears apart numbers for Priceline that makes investors keep pushing Priceline shares to $1000. I highly doubt it. I don’t think that amateur analysts are necessary for Apple at all because they’re pretty much useless at pulling in investors or boosting their confidence in Apple.

    All the amateur analysts are going to do is cause more Wall Street disappointment with Apple. That’s all. Then when the quarter numbers are announced Wall Street will be very unhappy because they listened to some pumped up indie estimates. I really wish the indie analysts would go away and choose some other stock to play their little number games with.

    1. I think they make money from their analysis because they charge people $ to get the members only section of their sites. At least that’s what Zaky does on his site.

    2. Independent analysts who consistently outperform Wall Street analysts ought to be commended for doing good work and for exposing the “experts” as untrustworthy. The recent surge in Apple share price was wholly expected by anyone reading asymco, which relies on careful and well-annotated analysis. When institutional analysts are consistently wrong, why trust them? Why think they are doing investors any favors? Apple has deserved a Strong Buy rating for the last five years, but the pros have been in denial about its potential, so money that would have bolstered the share price has been driven away from the market, until the recent blowout quarter scorched the blinders off of everyone’s eyes. Laughing_Boy, the Street is not your friend.

  2. A lot of so called “pros” are still failing to correct for PBAJ when they perform a TOST analysis, so their numbers continue to miss.

    You’d think they’d learn from the chasm between this year’s LEMN curve juxtaposed against standard industry TROUT.

    1. Squiggles, the joke’s on you, Fool! As anyone who follows these trends knows, it’s time for STRPR-BASS and not the TROUT analyses. STLHD and SALMN are running even better but recent government financial figures show that TOST is toast while PBAJ is getting wiped by CRM-CHZ overlaying the BAGL funds.

      Happy April Fools Day my acronymic buddy…

    1. +1 What’s with all these cat photos cluttering up the pages? I’d rather have Dells and HPs there ’cause at least I can ignore them. But cats? Call in the animal control people…

  3. And I thought I’m an “amateur” but it turns out I’m an “amatuer”. Macs at MDN do not have spell checking, or is it that red title that makes it invisible?

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