Analyst: Apple could sell nearly 40 million iPhones next year in China alone

“Morgan Stanley has seen the future and it’s a well-heeled Chinaman (or woman) with an iPhone,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“In a note to clients Sunday, Katy Huberty drew on Morgan Stanley’s proprietary AlphaWise survey of buying patterns among China’s rapidly growing middle class to paint a picture of the smartphone market on the mainland after Apple, as widely expected, finally signs deals with China Mobile and China Telecom,” P.E.D. reports. “Assuming 20% penetration, Apple should see, at a minimum, 24 million addition iPhone sales in 2013, adding $6.50 per share to the company’s bottom line.”

P.E.D. reports,”As the iPhone catches on and the middle class expands, that number could grow to nearly 40 million next year, adding $10 to Apple’s earnings per share… To put that in perspective, Apple sold 68.5 million iPhones worldwide in fiscal 2011, although with the launch of the iPhone 4S in October it sold more than half that many (37 million) in just one quarter.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Note: This article was quoted as it appeared at 8:41am EDT today. Since then, the term “Chinaman,” often regarded as pejorative, has been changed, without notation, to “Chinese man” in the Fortune article.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]


  1. I have been saying this for a while – China is the key to continuing Apple’s revenue and profit growth over the next few years. From an iOS perspective, it is a massive and mostly untapped market. For the longer term, Apple needs yet another blockbuster product release. Perhaps the evolution of Siri and iCloud will fill that role along with one or two new consumer electronics devices?

  2. I’m not sure they need another blockbuster product for awhile. There’s so much growth potential in existing markets. I would just think they could introduce an iPhone aimed at the mostly untapped prepaid cell phone market. Maybe a few more models of iPad with lower price points, like 350 or 400 range.

  3. The Mac growth in China is being overlooked… I was on a development trip to China earlier this year, and I saw a Macbook Pro’s being used in offices that were using the classic ThinkPad’s for the last 10 years. That’s a huge untapped market as well.

    Many people are going to be getting their first computer over the next few years, and Apple is aware of that I’m sure.

    As for the non-China Mac market… How do you think the new MacBook Pro/Air hybrids are going to turn out? 15″ Macbook Pro, sans optical drive, low cost SSD (didn’t Apple buy one of their suppliers?).

    I’m in! And I know many others that are too!

  4. Judging from the throngs outside of the Chinese stores on release day for iPhone 4, Apple could probably sell 60-80 mil in China. Alone. (How many other countries pelt Apple stores with eggs for not being able to get an iPhone?)

    The only problem is that Foxconn can’t make them fast enough.

    When Apple releases the next iPhone (5?), demand will be even higher, especially with more and more localized Chinese apps in the app store.

    It’s gonna get crazy…

  5. @MDN newsnote…

    “Since then, the term ‘Chinaman’, often regarded as pejorative…”

    MDN… really? Regarded as a pejorative by whom?

    I have been visiting this site since about 2003, and have *long* since defended your right (when others complain) to do with this site (express personal opinions, edit, etc.) whatever you will since it belongs to you.

    I am somewhat perplexed by your apparent hyper-sensitivity to the term ‘Chinaman’ in the article that you would change it.

    Yes, you cite that it is regarded as a ‘pejorative’ to some Asians of Chinese descent, but, really?

    Should Fortune have used the term: ‘Chinese person / persons’?

    ‘Chinese national’?

    ‘Person of Chinese heritage’?

    ‘Asian person that happens to reside in China’?

    ‘Chinese person of questionable origin’?

    or should they have used the *really* intentional pejoratives of ‘chink’, ‘gook’ or ‘slopehead’??

    I fully expect this post to be deleted. As I stated earlier, I fully defend your right to edit this site as you see fit.

    Just don’t be so thin-skinned…

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