“This week, Apple announced that they earned $28.2B in revenues (86% YOY), $6.6B in profits or $7.05 in eps,” The Ugly Truth writes for Seeking Alpha. “This exceeded the company’s guidance (given on July 19th) of $25B and $5.50 in eps but fell short of the Street’s estimate of $7.31 (keep in mind that their initial estimates came in at $6.80) and way short of independent analysts’ $9.07!”
Headlines like these were abundant:
• “Apple misses earnings; punished after hours”
• “Apple suppliers fall after miss”
• and my favorite…”In a rare miss, Apple 4Q disappoints”
The Ugly Truth writes, “In a bizarre turn of events, what was lost in the headlines was the fact that AAPL guided higher than what the analysts were expecting for Q1 2012!”
Read more in the full article here.
Apple topped their plan for calendar Q3 by double digit percentage value in both net profits and revenue.
If only the MSM would apply similar high standards to the WH and the rest of the world.
can someone please turn on the light of the room which these ANALysts are closed for so many years?
Yep Xmas quarter will be epic. They guided to $37B and $9.30eps, which if you add a conservative 10% to, gives you a more realistic bottom end of the range at over $40B and over $10eps. And, if the 1st quarter of the Fiscal Year is that, then the full Fiscal Year numbers will be over 4x that, so expect $160+B in sales and over $40eps. That would be about 50% growth in sales, and about 45% in eps. For a company of Apple’s size, that’s remarkable. But we already knew that!
At $40eps, a 15pe gets you up to $600.
Ken, I always look forward to your posts, along with Spark and C1 as leaders on this board. Its just that the holiday quarter is different. I can see the $9.30 in guidance. But not carry over to the following three quarters. Apple just announced $7.05. Realistically, if we average 8 going forward, we get $32eps. This would bring us to $480. A healthy 20 percent above where we are now.
Thanks, yes, the holiday quarter is different for everyone. Back when we had the iPod, only, sales were distinctly lump, so that March and June quarters were below the previous Xmas. Since then, we’ve had the iPhone and iPad, and Apple has tried very hard to put one major product launch or refresh into each quarter. iPads in the March quarter, iPhones in the June quarter, iPods in the September quarter, and various Macs updated all throughout the year. This has smoothed out the lumpiness in sales so that the typical drop after Xmas is much smaller and by the June quarter, Apple has passed the Xmas quarter.
If you look at more recent history, you can see that Apple’s Fiscal Year will easily quadruple what happens in the 1st Xmas quarter. I didn’t mean to imply that the year is smooth, but when you total it up, that’s what you can expect. So, if Apple is guiding to a $40B Smas quarter, then the full Fiscal year is likely going to see 50% revenue and profit growth.
Now, when will the price reflect that reality? Well, first, the market has to recognize that Apple will hit $40eps in FY2012, and that takes time. Where you can make money as a shareholder is recognizing these trends one year ahead. The further forward you can estimate the better.
Now, looking at your point, it’s really reflecting what you see into the next quarter, and so your price target of $480 should reflect that, and it does. I’m looking at the full Fiscal Year for 2012, and so my price target is really 12 months out.
So, why can’t the talking heads ask the ANALysts the big question? “WHERE’S THE MISS?”
Wouldn’t it be great to do a “Where’s the beef?” ads with some senior citizens questioning their 401K advisers, “WHERE’S THE MISS?” They can say, “I looked over the Apple quarterly report. I can’t find any miss.” “WHERE’S THE MISS?”
I wish some would actually name names… Who exactly are these analysts? And what pricing model are they using to come up with some of their figures?
The MISS is under the table…..
Let’s call this what it is…stock manipulation for profit. No other stock is this volatile and analysts are all in collusion with traders to flip the stock and make a quick buck. Millions…maybe billions are made doing this with Apple all the time. You sell high…bad mouth or rumor AAPL…then buy it back at a fraction of what you paid for it…
rinse…repeat.
Its just the share holders been gready as usual wanting more and more, how can some one say a company like apple is disappointing with a profit of 6.8bn , just put the .8 in my bank account apple and I wont complain how bad your doing. A company doing so well in a finational world crisise , what can they do when the world isn’t in a ressesion
I’m a shareholder and I don’t trade AAPL.
I’m in for the long term.
But attitudes like that are going to hurt the bears!
Please! Won’t someone please think of the bears!