Microsoft: Windows Phone may grab over 20% share of smartphone market over next 24-36 months

“Microsoft Corp. said its Windows Phone operating system may capture more than 20 percent of the smartphone market over the next two to three years with the help of hardware manufacturers and increased marketing efforts,” Cornelius Rahn and Ragnhild Kjetland report for Bloomberg.

“Forecasts by researchers Gartner and IDC, which expects a market share of about 20 percent in 2015, are conservative, said Achim Berg, head of Windows Phone marketing, in Berlin today,” Rahn and Kjetland report.

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Rahn and Kjetland report, “Microsoft, the world’s largest software maker, is betting that Windows Phone will retake market share lost to Apple Inc.’s iPhone and handsets running Google Inc.’s Android software… In April, Gartner forecast that the Android operating system will have the largest smartphone market share during the next four years, rising from 23 percent in 2010 to 49 percent in 2015. Apple’s iOS is predicted to grow from 16 percent to 17 percent, while Microsoft’s share will go from 4.2 percent in 2010 to 19.5 percent in 2015. IDC in June predicted that Microsoft may hold a 20.3 percent market share in 2015.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Depends on how Android fares in court and the juries are still out. If smartphone assemblers find Android is suddenly too costly to load into their devices, then they will turn to alternatives like Microsoft’s Windows Phone. Time, as always, will tell.

 

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Punchbowl” for the heads up.]

55 Comments

  1. There’s a point in White Christmas where General Waverly predicts a foot of snow overnight. Then he says, “If there’s one thing I learned in the Army, it’s always be optimistic – especially when you don’t know what you’re talking about.”

    Looks like Darth Fester has been watching old movies for motivation.

  2. I used to use a Windows Mobile 6.5 phone made by HP before switching over to the iPhone. I also used a variety of other phones like Motorola and for kicks tried out a Symbian phone from Nokia. So you could say that I have quite a lot of old tech phone experience. Quite unequivocally I can safely say that the worst experience I have ever had with a mobile device, phone, PDA, music player or otherwise is with the WM6 device. To say that it sucked would be to misuse the word suck. It was worse than suck. What possibly can be worse than suck. Try whale shit lying at the bottom of the ocean. WM6 was whale shit of gigantic proportions.

    If you have ever tried to navigate a mobile device designed to be held in the hand using a stylus to poke at a start button at the top which then dropped down a menu list of items that filled the left hand vertical of the screen you will have an inkling of what I’m talking about. Microsoft has no idea how to design an interface a consumer can understand because they try to bring Windows metaphor to everything they do. I don’t believe people who have been burnt using MS’s whale shit mobile OS will so easily forgive them when there are viable alternatives in the market in the shape of iOS and Android, to name two dominant platforms.

    MS carries too much negative baggage from WM6 and now deservingly they are the laughing stock of mobile OSes. It would be impossible to gain a 20% share of the mobile market unless Apple or Google missteps in a big way. Even if RIM imploded and vanished altogether from this world, RIM refugees will not be buying WP7 phones – they will most likely buy an HTC running Android with a physical keyboard. MS is a day late and a dollar short to the smartphone game and will remain lying at the bottom of the ocean mingling with whale shit for a long time into the foreseeable future. Nokia will not be their savior. Instead, Elop and MS will contrive to lead Nokia to an early grave.

  3. “When and if fascism comes to America it will not be labeled ‘made in Germany’; it will not be marked with a swastika; it will not even be called fascism; it will be called, of course, ‘Americanism’” – An uncredited New York Times reporter covering Halford E. Luccock in an article published September 12, 1938.

    Too late, Fascism is here and flourishing!!!!

  4. Balmer’s pre-sleep routine – “Star light, star bright. First star I see tonight. I wish I MAY, I wish I MIGHT. Have the wish I wish tonight.” Sleep well Steve.

  5. – (many) apple haters buy android so WP7 growth will mostly be the expense of android, rim etc.
    iPhone has very high retention rate of users.

    – if WP7 gets more popular with OEMs due to Android issues (lawsuits, moto purchase by google etc) their profits will go even thinner as they spend more making BOTH Android and WP7 phones and supporting them. A more fragmented rival host is better for Apple (see iPod) rather than a single big enemy (see Windows PC), example thinner profits means cost cutting hardware and bad customer support.

    – i still have doubts the Lords of Windows Desktop and Office will fully support WP7 (see the collapse of Courier, kin, Win Mo, Danger, Zune Phone etc) — they are already want Win 8 DESKTOP for tablets instead of WP7. Windows desktop is the big money earner for Msft (billions vs the few hundred million for Win Mo) and they will never let Windows Mobile guys usurp them.

    – analysts are usually wrong about apple rivals chances: see Xoom, Kin, HP tablet, Palm Pre etc….

  6. It’s a very real that Microstupid can gain that markethare. Look at that POS XCRAP. Billions lost year after year after year. A normal company would have killed of their POS. Not Microscash. They were able to blow away billions upon billion without blinking an eye to beat Sony. They can easily do it with their new POS MANGO! As long as people keep supporting that monopoly, Microshite will keep on winning and leading the market.

  7. iOS took 78%. Android registered about 15%. Blackberry 3%. Windows Mobile at 1% is BEHIND Symbian’s 2%, and MATCHES 1% of already DEAD webOS!

    The Googe activation numbers are completely fake!

  8. This sounds like what Microsoft said about Zune several years ago. And we know how that turned out.

    The real number is profit share, not market share. Microsoft could conceivably get 20% — but they would need about 80% share to an Apple 20% share to be even on profit. Microsoft will always be on the losing end of phones.

    btw, Google doesn’t make $5 per license — most, if not all, of that fee is around IP licensing, not going to Google profit.

  9. Who in the world would be such a coward to post a prediction 3 years off. So much could change in 3 years. By the time the second year rolls around, they will readjust their prediction, most folks would have forgotten, and they can continue to grab extreme salaries for being wrong most of the time or being so safe, that nobody even cares.

  10. A 20% market share is VERY possible when
    Android is dead.

    TOTALLY remove Androids 43% share and sure. Microsoft fills the holes.

    REMEMBER – Apples original hopes in the smartphone industry in 2007, was a 1% world market share.

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