“If sales of Apple’s iPod are any indication, the heyday of the MP3 player is over and done with,” Christina Bonnington writes for Wired. “iPod sales have been steadily declining since their peak at 22.7 million in December 2008, and analysts estimate another 7.2 percent drop over the quarter that just ended.”
MacDailyNews Take: iPod sales are “declining” only if you fail to count the iPods inside every iPhone and iPad sold.
Bonnington writes, “Apple still commands 70 percent of the MP3 player market… [but] rumors have blazed for years that Apple would discontinue one (typically the iPod Classic) or more iPod models, but it hasn’t happened yet… It’s possible that Apple could lay an iPod, likely the old iPod Classic [sic] rather than the more popular iPod Touch [sic], to rest at its upcoming September event.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Will Apple kill the iPod? No. Will Apple kill the iPod classic? Your guess is as good as ours.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Bill in Sarasota” for the heads up.]
No, Apple won’t kill the iPod … the Zune will!
Oh god. I can’t stand the Zune. I’ll take my 4th gen iPod touch any day.
What? You’ve got something against a shit-brown hunk of plastic?
The funny thing is when MS killed the Zune it was actually becoming a modern and nice mp3 player!
My father in law ended up with one due to some contest he won. It was the latest rev of the device and I was somewhat shocked at how thin it was and how the quality had improved.
The software was even decent!
Too bad they produced the last rev years after losing their @sses in the market!
Must be fun to be Ballmer!
Balmy, you must be getting some strong drugs out of Mexico.
The only family I know that still has a Zune is Bill Gate’s family and that is because he is too cheap to spring for an iPod for his kids.
I still have my Zune HD… Actually, my history with MP3 players is interesting. First had a Rio 600, then an iPod 3rd gen (remember the 4 touch buttons in a line under the screen? yeaahhh). Then got an iPod photo 4th gen, when the 3rd gen’s hard drive went on me like a year after I got it. Then I got a Zune 30 when they came out, sold my iPod… The Zune was, at the time, and even to some extent still is, an amazing media-centric device. I kept it until Feb 2009 when someone stole it out of my car in front of my house. So I got an 8GB iPod touch 2G. It was ok, but not for music. I got a 32GB Zune HD in April 2010, LOVE having my Zune back. I picked up a 4G iPod touch in Sept so I could use FaceTime, but no music goes on it. Now with Google Music on my Moto Xoom and T-Mo G2, I think Zune and my iPod are all dead weight. Well, except my Zune is plugged into my Xbox 360, so I can play my music off of it, since my HTC HD7 doesn’t work with the Xbox yet. Need that Mango update.
Kill the iPod touch?!!! You’re out to lunch !!!
Yea, when I read that I realized just how out of touch he was. Just the fact that he felt the need to state he thought Apple would probably not discontinue the iPod touch . . . well, I don’t even need to finish that sentence.
What is the benefit of killing off the iPod Classic? I can’t imagine they spend much R&D on it (if any), I don’t think they advertise it much (it at all) and at this point, all they really need to do is bump hard drive specs. They could probably even cut some of the price and keep it out there as an option. I’m not sure the iPods really compete with the iOS devices.
I could see them merging the nano/shuffle and retaining the gym rat crowd, but then you would get back to the dilemma of needing/not needing buttons.
No iPod Classic Death until capacities are similar with NAND
Absolutely not.
iPods don’t require a monthly data plan.
And don’t forget that every iPhone is an iPod too! That goes for the iPad as well.
They can’t kill the high capacity iPod Classic until they get the iPod Touch up to 128GB, IMO. If they do discontinue the iPod Classic I’ll probably buy another one as a backup for the future.
“NO KILL I” — iPod
There will be no killing of Classic until the iPod Touch reaches 128Gb or better storage capability. And that’s sure taking a long time to happen.
+1
Why??? How many people are out there who have so much music that anything beyond 16GB isn’t wasted on them?
Apple’s own research implies that the average music collection size of an iTunes user is just a bit over 4GB. There are many people whose collection is twice as large as that; some whose collection is four times as large (16GB or so); but the number of those whose collection reaches beyond 32GB is negligible. And of those, vast majority obtained their music illegally anyway (i.e. NOT by buying on iTunes/Amazon, nor by ripping their CD collection). Even smaller is the group of users who rip their CDs in Apple Lossless (the quality advantage of which is lost on iPod’s circuitry and earbuds anyway).
You would be right if all the iPod Touches would be used for is just to listen to music. Add your typical music library, plus apps, plus content for some of those apps, plus photos taken by the HD camera, plus video taken in HD, plus any video podcasts and rentals you subscribe to, and 32GB quickly is nothing. 64GB is minimum for regular users of all the iPod Touch has to offer, to allow for room for more over the many years of service it will provide.
I think you may be forgetting about the size of video.
I believe the Apple research of 4GB music collections related to what users have *on their iPods*, not the size of their iTunes library on their Mac/PC. The implication was that people don’t carry large collections with them and really don’t need need big iPods.
Of course, videos and apps can require much more memory. Also, for power users and enthusiasts, the problem remains of *which* 4GB’s of music you want to carry with you at any point in time. Apple is addressing this with iCloud and iTunes Match. If I want to hear a Police album from my collection that’s not on the iPod, I can suck it down from wherever I am (provided I have a WiFi connection).
My collection is over 80GB. I have well over 1,000 CDs and purchased over 500 tracks on iTunes. Plus people put videos and movies on there. You are the one who seems limited in your thinking. Just because you limit your music choices doesn’t mean everyone does. It doesn’t hurt Apple to offer a high capacity iPod for those who truly love music and want to have their collection with them.
Love your generalization that people steal because they have a lot. Nice.
Predrag-san,
My legal music collection extends beyond 80GB. I’ve got music from college years, military years and my time overseas. It doesn’t fit on my 30GB iPod.
Wow, lots of unsubstantiated generalizations here.
Speaking just for myself, my own music collection is around 8,000 tracks and 60 GB. Nearly all of this is ripped from my own CDs and LPs, and I rip the newer tracks at either 256k or 320k bitrate. I don’t carry my entire collection with me (I use an 8GB iPod nano), but there are plenty of times that I look for a track and don’t find it on my current playlist. No big deal to me, but I can easily see how someone else would want a higher capacity iPod.
And your point about lossless quality ignores the fact that Apple has used high quality DACs in the iPod classic. The playback apparently was good enough for high end speaker manufacturer Wilson Audio to demo a new $100k+ speaker system a few years ago using an iPod classic as the source component.
And people who rip their tracks using a lossless format are likely going to use something better than the Apple earbuds anyway. Again, speaking for myself, I use a pair of Grado SR60 headphones with my iPod.
Not until they’re on sale in the Vault of Tomorrow.
A classic movie reference – from Captain Blood — and a Star Trek reference – the Horta — all in one post. Are you a product of the 1930s or the 1960s.:-)
The Shuffle and Nano are perfect for the gym or running.
Please just incorporate the Nike+ feature so I don’t have to attach a dongle almost as large as the player.
exactly…I really don’t like to run with my iphone but the 5th gen Nano is perfect…even with the dongle….
Bloody slow news day eh???
Amazing how underrated the iPod touch remains. It’s tremendously valuable for the iOS ecosystem yet it’s treated like just another iPod, a mere MP3 player instead of an innovative pocket tablet.
If Apple waited until this year and introduced it as the “iPad mini,” it would command a whole new level of respect and adoration.
I can easily see the Classic line killed. At this point, it is the least appealing (visually), and it is by far the worst selling model of all. The only people that buy the Classic are the minuscule minority who has a massive collection of music, AND for some reason MUST have all of their music on their iPod at all times. The number of such users (who don’t already own a Classic) is negligible and is rapidly declining.
Maintaining a product line, regardless of how inexpensive it is to make, when such product sales volume is low, becomes a burden and expense. The volume of the Classic sales has long ago fallen below the number that can justify its existence. At this point, the margins on the Classic are lowest out there.
My expectation is that the Classic will be killed exactly on its tenth birthday, which will be on 23 October this year.
Amazon shows the classic as holding 2 of the top 10 positions for *all* MP3 players:
People are buying them, and they’ve got a healthier profit margin than the shuffle or nano.
The real drive for killing the classic is to migrate over to a platform where people can buy apps, other content and now services… the touch or iPhone.
However, the cost/capacity with the touch has a very long way to go before those craving large capacity iPods will migrate.
Case in point: the 64GB touch is $399 while the 160GB classic is $249. And while the touch could jump to 128GB, the classic could similarly jump as well at the same price point differential.
This will decrease over time, but it will take a while before the cost/capacity disparity isn’t an issue.
There is however a point where cost/capacity catches up to mass users. For example, if no person had a desire for a library greater than 8GB, then the touch would make more sense at 8GB for $229. The higher you go in capacity, the larger the mass of users who’s needs get included in the touch model for the same or lower price point.
This is why the classic max capacity has been “stuck” at 160GB for almost 4 years (with 2008 actually going *down* to 120GB).
So clearly the end is in sight, but not this September. This September, we should still see about 1/10 the capacity at about the same entry price point for the touch versus classic, resulting in continued, yet less glamorous and desirable, demand.
My guess: 2 more years for the classic. This is based on Moore’s Law determining when cost/capacity should catch up to the threshold of what appears to be mass user demand of 160GB.
All the other iPods are safe, although Apple appears very willing to radically alter their forms year to year.
There are always new kids just attaining IPod age so there is a continuing market. The author is rather short sighted
The kids that attain the iPod age attain at the same time the cellphone age. While their age may be too young for an iPhone, they are most likely going to be given a cellphone with a media player (practically EVERY cellphone out there today, and certainly every one of them on subsidised 2-year carrier plans has a media player). And with 3GS (or future last-generation equivalent) going for $50 with a contract, many kids of cellphone age end up getting them right away. I have certainly noticed the trend among my daughter’s class mates (age 11, a school in NYC).
Not “every” cellphone, and that generalization certainly does not apply to prepaid phones, which represent the fastest growing US market and the majority of global cellphone users. My 12-year old niece for example carries a feature phone with a prepaid account for voice calls, and uses an iPod touch for social networking, games, and texting.
There is no device comparable to the iPod touch right now. It fills a substantial market gap, made up of those consumers who want to use iOS apps but don’t want a contract or a monthly data plan. Just because some parents in NYC are fine with paying for a contract cell phone for their kids, doesn’t mean that this applies to all or even most people.
Zune?……..the evil adversary of Buzz Lightyear?
Apple continues to sell millions upon millions of iPods. Let’s not forget the iPod touch is part of the iPod line also, and that certainly isn’t going to be killed off.
I think Apple will continue to move items like the iPod nano more toward iOS, with limited apps/functions. Nanos are great for kids, or for runners, bikers, etc. Build in WiFi functionality for iCloud and it could be an entirely new device.
Just because the iPod is declining doesn’t mean it’s irrelevant.
> It’s possible that Apple could lay an iPod, likely the old iPod Classic [sic] rather than the more popular iPod Touch [sic], to rest at its upcoming September event.”<
And maybe they won't. (Someone got paid to write this story?)
The iPod media player business alone, without including the iPod touch, would be enough for most other companies. But because it’s Apple, people have to speculate that Apple will kill the product line.
“iPod” is Apple’s most flexible product line. In the future, it can become anything. “Mac” is a pretty well define product; it’s a classic personal computer. So is “iPad” (tablet computer) and “iPhone” (smart phone). “iPod” is not so well-defined…
My “speculation” is that the iPod line will morph into tiny “wearable computers” and become more important than ever before to Apple.
No, because the iPod is still a profitable market, and sales of iPods aren’t cannibalising sales of the iPhone. No-one is not buying an iPhone because they buy an iPod, other than those who could not afford, or do no need an iPhone.
MDN said, “iPod sales are “declining” only if you fail to count the iPods inside every iPhone and iPad sold.”
Hun? Last I knew…. an iPod is an iPod. An iPhone is an iPhone. And an iPad is an iPad…. regardless of whether they have the ability to play music.
Sales of iPods may be in decline from the 22.7M peak in late 2008, but that doesn’t mean that it is time to kill it off. Millions are still being sold, and many companies would define that as a major success. Besides, a dedicated music player is still a useful device, especially in the smaller form factors. And the iPod touch is still in a class of its own. No one else has anything to match it.
My Classic sits in center consule of my car, attached to a charger, where it is always ready to random play from my music library. I bring it in occasionally to update with new music.
My iPod Classic is very useful to me. I take it on vacation too.
I don’t need a Touch because I have an iPhone. I think they are very beautiful, small, iPads though. I wish my iPhone looked like one.
This article is rather nonsensical, given that the iPod touch remains Apple’s ace in the hole. The ADD-addled tech press has written off the MP3 player market as yesterday’s news, so it’s no surprise that they continue to ignore the iPod touch’s market impact.
All of the competing platforms have no answer, and the iPod touch still represents upwards of ~30% of the total iOS user base. Yes, iPod sales are on the decline, but they remain a highly profitable niche and the iPod touch occupies a huge market gap that Apple would be foolhardy to abandon at this juncture.
And the usual speculation on the iPod classic seems to ignore that it still sells in substantial numbers, and likely makes a tidy profit for Apple, given that they’ve made minimal changes to the design over the last few years.
My understanding is that the iPod classic represents the only notable remaining market for the 1.8″ hard drive form factor. All other markets for the 1.8″ HD have dried up, and Toshiba’s the only remaining supplier. I would think that the iPod classic’s fate is tied to Toshiba continuing to manufacture 1.8″ drives at a price that Apple can live with. If Toshiba decides to exit the market, or they can no longer meet Apple’s price target, then the iPod classic’s fate would be sealed.
TechTard At Work:
“If sales of Apple’s iPod are any indication, the heyday of the MP3 player is over and done with.”
Where do dopey journalists come from? What is the point of publishing vacuous filler rubbish? You’d think it was August! Well, I suppose it’s almost August. Ho hum. :yawn:
I just want a small iPod with Bluetooth (so I don’t get that god-forsaken cord caught on stuff) and real (easy to use while running) buttons.