“An unusually dissenting report from Nomura analysts Thursday estimated that the iPad would be eclipsed by its tablet rivals in three years,” Electronista reports.
“Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year versus everyone else’s 20 million, the researchers saw the lead narrowing substantially in 2012 and 2013, with the iPad finally losing an absolute majority in 2014 as 83 million non-Apple tablets trade hands to 78 million iPads,” Electronista reports. “The balance might be tipped by Microsoft. Although it would still remain the smallest category, Windows 8 tablets using ARM processors would swell from five million a year in its inaugural 2012 year to 20 million by 2014. ARM would also play an increasing role in traditional PCs at 23 million three years from now.”
Electronista reports, “Microsoft would be the ‘game changer’ that would break up the established order, Nomura said, although not until 2013. Android would be helped by this year’s Ice Cream Sandwich update.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Shit Sandwich is more like it.
And Analysts should factor in the potential results of legal actions that may actually be resolved within the time frames they provide.
Related articles:
Android phone settlers don’t go for Android tablets, they buy Apple iPads – July 8, 2011
Why Android tablets can’t compete with Apple’s revolutionary iPad – July 8, 2011
Nielsen: Apple iPhone drives U.S. smartphone growth as Android stagnates – June 30, 2011
IDC: Apple becomes Australia’s number one mobile brand as Nokia plummets – June 27, 2011
40% of European smartphone buyers plan to next buy an Apple iPhone – June 24, 2011
Apple iPhone the top-selling smartphone at both Verizon and AT&T – June 22, 2011
Analyst: Android to continue to lose smartphone share – June 20, 2011
Multiple Android tablet peddlers give up, focus on 4- to 5 -inch smartphones – June 17, 2011
Analyst: Apple iPhone 4 still bestseller ‘by far’ at AT&T and Verizon; still outsells Android in U.S. – June 13, 2011
Nielsen finds decline in Android’s U.S. smartphone share – May 31, 2011
NPD: Apple iPhone 4 for Verizon best-selling mobile phone in U.S.; causes Android to lose share for first time since Q209 – April 28, 2011
Android infringes. Big time (as the U.S.’s greatest Vice President in history would say).
“greatest” as in “greatest waste of space”?
Obviously, that would be Plugs Biden.
“Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year”
Wow! I wasn’t even aware Apple was still shipping the iPad. I thought it was all iPad 2 now.
So, yes, Android tablets will eclipse iPad sales in a few years. By then, we’ll all be using iPad 5s.
They meant the mounds of non-iPad tablets at the dump; those will eclipse Apple by being so tall that they block the sun.
Ha Ha Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!
Especially if Apple does not have a full USB port.
Exactly what support?
especially there’s no RS232 on iPad!
Yah Jean Brunet is spot on…
I was going to buy an iPad till I realized Apple has not seen fit to include a centronics printer port.
How are we supposed to plug our legacy parallel printers in to it?
Ha- see I can outthink apples “supposedly genius” product designers, they need to add a centronics port and a floppy drive (and RS232 and 422 ports) , then you might be able to compete with the fully featured windows tablets that were shipping 5-10 years ago!
Apple: shipped = sold
The rest: shipped > sold by a wide margin
Why are analysts in love with the idea that android will eventually take over? Recently there was a story of android phone owners having iPads. People don’t want tablets they want iPads!
Because Apple doesn’t bribe analysts to write flattering articles about them.
Wave enough money under Nomura’s nose and they’ll claim people will dump tablets for literal Etch-a-Sketches.
I almost spewed my coffee when I read the title. I agree with MDN’s take- not a single competitor has gotten a viable alternative off the ground yet. I’m still not convinced Amazon is gonna do any better either, although it appears they might not fail as bad as the others…
So amusing these analysts are. The numbers make it sound like they have any idea.
But I do observe the day that Android will “inevitably” eclipse the iPad actually seems to be getting pushed farther back. I mean wasn’t it supposed to be this year or 2012?
“Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year versus everyone else’s 20 million…”
Eh? I wasn’t aware of anybody else selling anywhere near 1million tablets, so where do the other 20 million come from?
Based on that false premise, insanity is sure to follow.
Shipping, not sold.
Even so, 20 million Android tabs? Really? Tums doesn’t ship that many!
Exactly. Where does 20 million come from? That is ridiculously over inflated. Just another fictional amount with no real data.
EXACTLY! This analysis is based upon this 20M to begin with in order to get to his 83M prediction in 2014. If the 20M turns out to be 5M, his prediction is going to off by alot.
There are a flood of them in asia, this is from indonesia http://www.bhinneka.com/category/tablet.aspx they are all android. You can see a whole different brands (or non branded) tablets in china, india and korea. there might be 100 brands of them. Imagine if each brand can sell 500.000, which is possible (because indonesia has 250 million population, china has billions of population and also India)
When you see fatuous inflated hype like this:
“…versus everyone else’s 20 million”
You know there’s lots of laughter in store! 😆
20 million can be 20 suppliers shipping 1 million each. It’s like the early iPod days.
Someone forgetting iOS5, iCloud and eventual iPad3? Can’t count these factors out!
…so send us your money because we know how to invest it for you!
I predict that within five years, there will be more land than ocean.
I think in five years, I will be five years older …..
20 Million where the heck did that number come from …. So they are saying for every 3.5 iPad 2 sold 2.0 Android tablets are being sold today …. huh – I just saw the Zoom on Woot discounted $200 off retail …. Maybe they are counting the first time it sold, then returned, then sold to another company who is trying to sell it again – I get where they come up with the 20 million now …
Kinda like a new car gets sold it is a used car and then sold again and again …. Hey we sold 12 zillion Yugo – Or was that one Yugo 12 million times ….
Boy if I had a dollar every time I hear this crap…..
Based on an alien invasion…..
And they’re throwing Windows 8 tablets in as the difference maker! Microsoft hasn’t sold 5 million tablets total in its lifetime, let alone 20 million.
It’s really quite amazing how these analysts just pull numbers out of their *ss, never any justification to them at all.
What in the world would make anyone think that Android tablets, based on products actually released to this point, pose any challenge whatsoever to the iPad?
These analysts must not understand history. Just look how great Windows Phone 7 did. The iPad is even more entrenched than the iPhone, so I ask what school of reasoning do these idiots come from that they can conclude with any competency that a Windows tablet will be able to compete agains the iPad? I’ll chalk up Nomura’s lunacy to the Japanese nuclear disaster. Better lay off that radioactive sake.
What a load of rubbish… These so called analyst use simple calculation focusing on ration of shipped. It assumes APPLE will not innovate and everything remains as is.
What a bunch of idiots. I actually have a friend who says the same trash about iphone. These idiots only measure qty and compete on price with each other.
There will always be a low-end of the market and I am delighted that someone will serve their needs but please stop comparing your left over with a top notch innovative and users-loving-it magical iPad. My Little sister and my elderly parents love the iPad.
They are idiots and so are those who pay these idiots to waste digital ink.
Mehran
The more likely scenario is that (by three years from now) Apple’s tablet competition will not be able to “afford” to compete with Apple directly. Apple keeps making record-breaking profit while the competition releases “me too” products that don’t make enough profit to justify their development cost and initial production run.
They will focus on the “niche” areas that Apple intentionally ignores. For example, 5 to 7-inch mini tablets. Tablets with slide-out keyboards. Tablets that are too large/heavy to hold and use at the same time. Laptops with touch screens.
And to speculate that “Microsoft would be the game changer” is (at best) premature. Wasn’t Windows Phone 7 supposed to be a “game changer” too, and what has it done? Windows 7 was supposed to turn the tide away from Mac, but Apple keeps breaking Mac sales records.
I think the writer forgot to factor in the fact that Apple generally buys up the entire chip supply ahead of time. Where do the other companies get the additional chips from? Idiot! Electronista is just blowing text out of there ass!
Update – in 2014 hell will freeze over ……..
The Win 8 tablets will compete with net books, not iPad.
The Android tablets will compete with each other, not iPad.
iPad will have the usual problem, making enough hardware for the demand.
Nomura analysts will quietly bury this prediction in less than a year.
Like I said, it was simply a two word review which read, “Shit Sandwich.” Thanks for the Spinal Tap reference!
You guys are forgetting a major part of this analysis. If you put Apple in a vacuum with no further innovation and the rest of the players are able to innovate, they may catch up in 3 years. But, without Apple showing the way, the word innovate is used very loosely. Have we seen one single solitary innovation in the tablet market that was not led by Apple? I want to hedge my bet to 4 years….
MDN iCaled this I presume.
What school do these jackasses attend to get their “ANAL-YST” degree? Oh right, there isn’t one…just hang a shingle and you’re good to go. OK, I declare myself an analyst.
Pay me money and I’ll make a prediction that favors you in a good light.
Let’s throw some preliminary numbers in the hat. As of now the iPad will sell approximately 8-9 million tablets a quarter. That’s this year. That should account for the bulk of the 35 million number.
For Android tablets to sell they will have to significantly undercut the price of the iPad to compensate for the lack of applications which currently sits in the ratio of 100:1, 100,000 iPad specific apps in the iTunes App Store vs. 1,000 (if that) tablet apps in the Android Market Place. For Android to sell in significant numbers the development cycle of apps will have to pick up steam in a big way. I don’t see that happening so that will act as a natural brake on Android tablet growth.
The ramification of Android devices undercutting the price of the iPad is that profitability will be eroded. When that happens then the slide to cheaper components will take place so you’ll get shoddily made plastic encrusted crap appearing in greater numbers.
And the last thing that the analyst did not consider is the distribution channel. Android phones have the carriers pushing them. Android tablets are stacked mile high in Best Buy but what’s lacking is a retail sales consultant who can show you how it works. This is where Apple’s strength lies – an unrivalled distribution network in the shape of the Apple retail store.
Given these inherent weaknesses – comparative lack of distribution muscle, lack of apps, and inability to give much ground on price without fatally compromising the quality of the product – you get a trifecta of fail that will cripple widespread adoption of the Android tablet.
1! Just look at the next article. Amazon skimping on tablet to undercut Apple.
Good “analysis.” Much better than by most of the folks who are called “analysts.”
I wish that these analyst were actually held accountable for their prophecies. Maybe then they wouldn’t spew this b/s all the time if they thought their jobs were on the line.
3 years from now Fandroid won’t be a free OS. After all the licensing fees it won’t hold the same attraction for the bottom feeders. HTC is already paying $5/unit to M$ just for their patent infringements with Fandroid. Add in Apple, Oracle and the rest and free starts to get expensive.
Stealing is bad Karma. So sayeth the Book of Jobs.
Why hold back? Let’s “assume” android ships 100m per supplier. iPad will be toast next week. So easy when one makes up numbers.
Yep, it’ll be just like the iPod all over again! Sure, it had a commanding lead at first, but then the inevitable rise of more open, flexible alternatives at better prices inevitably led to … the… iPod still being 70% of music player sales… um….
Well. Who cares? Apple will have already moved onto the next big thing. A lot will happen in technology by 2014. Tablets may go the way of the netbook by that point.
And how about the fact developers are abandoning android and gravitating towards solely developing in iOS?
It’s just obvious this “team” of analysts use metrics like it’s 1999. And I am always suspicious of no-named analyst “teams” They could be a group of interns that wrote this analysis. BofA uses fresh out of college grads to write analyst reports. No repercussions for fail either.
Vaporware will outsell reality by 2012 … make that 2013 … no 2014 … then again by 2015 … for sure by 2016 … readjusted to 2017 …
I got a better prediction: Android as we know it won’t be around 3 years from now due to patent infringement issues. Google will be forced back to the drawing board to come up with a new, albeit very similar, platform.
Now you know why they’re keeping Chrome around. 😉
Nomura is manned by MORONS.
Nomura in 2007 said that iPhone screens will all fail due to faulty touch ‘heat’ technology:
article:
“Nomura International analyst, Richard Windsor released a note to clients indicating that the iPhone’s “dead strip” display problem could become more widespread.
Apple bought the rights to the screen technology used in the iPhone from a Finnish firm. Finnish firm reported that usage led to the same unresponsive display problems after some time. Apparently, 3 to 6 months of “extensive use” would start to degrade the (heat sensitivity) technology and cause a lose of sensitivity to touch-inputs. This suggests that the relatively new iPhone fleet in the US could start to exhibit similar problems with time.”
Of course the MOST CASUAL internet search would have shown that iPhones don’t use ‘heat’ but touch capacitance…
why would anyone listen to Nomura is beyond me.
In other news, bankrupt Cold Stone Creamery will reopen closed locations, partnering with Microsoft to open 75 stores in 2 years. Nomura analysts speculate Microsoft’s “big *ss table” could be used to enter customer’s orders, control inventory, and mix ice cream and value added toppings on the same touch surface. A contact within the Creamery reveals that if Windows Mobile 8 phones don’t sell, then Android phone giveaways will attract customers. “Heck, we’ll have more flavors than just black and white!”
Utter lunacy. A product that has been poorly reviewed, a paucity of sales and a modest app environment is going to somehow eclipse the sales of the other device that in its second year/first upgrade, is on track to tripling its first year/first model sales. From 15 million to 40-60 million. What would Apple have to do to stall that growth pattern when the iPad 3 is released? In fact, they could actually not release the 3 and still experience substantial growth. The Xoom, the Playbook, Dell Streak, Samsung Galaxy- selling miserably and yet the company that jumpstarted this faction of the computer industry hasn’t a chance to stay on top of the competition that is well under them.
Anyone possessing even a nominal understanding of tech retail, or retail in general would recognize how illogical this proposition is. Ostensibly smart CEOs and tech analysts show the limits of their skill and vision by continuing to bet against a company that has gone from near bankruptcy to being the number 2 corporation in the world and the number 1 tech company in the world.
Apple is likely to sell as many iPads as Dell desktops: 100s of millions over the next few years.
This is just fud to spin the stock down. It’s been pumped and may go higher for a while. So the brokers need to begin spreading rumors now.
So frickin obvious that this is the game since there is no serious competitor on the market yet.
They state that iPad will have 65% of tablet market this year. On what sales figures do they base that? Does anyone know the current world percentage sales of iPads?
I have yet to see a rival model in the wild, but lots of iPads.
Three years. Oracle will have changed the eula as many times and the Android OS now costs as much as an unlocked phone. Smartphone data plans will cost $1/MB per month. The U.S. president has been in exile for two years … and the people finally have their country back.
Is your name and condition really 1Neuron?
Analysts wouldn’t recognize a computing paradigm shift if it hit them in the shit sandwich. The Web killed windows years ago… it’s lurching along like the zombie undead.
Let us say that could happen. So what! I don’t remember seeing only one car company selling their cars in the US. You can say that about everything from tvs to washing machines. When a company becomes number one in sales the other companies don’t close their doors and go away. I will still buy the products that i want to regardless of it’s market share or total units sold etc. I want what I want and I want it NOW.
The so-called “analyst” fails to understand that the business premise of the iPad is NOT the same as the iPhone. The storyline for the iPad will be more like the iPOD. Total domination for as long as the product exists, with any potential for extinction in the hands of Apple itself (via its next thing).
1. In the USA, Android was (is) able to fill a huge gap in marketshare potential resulting from Apple’s decision to originally make the iPhone only available on ATT. That resulted in 60-70% of available subscribers, including huge numbers stuck with corporate plans, being effectively forced to go with “the next best thing” (used with jest) in order to maintain their non-ATT carrier preference (or requirement). Anyone can readily see that this is already beginning to erode with the still very recent addition of Verizon iPhones. This will still take a requisite amount of time to fully realize due to many (including corporations) still being tied to the subsidized contract expirations. Then the same thing will happen with Sprint. Meanwhile, for the vast majority, the iPad is not bound to any “carrier-factor” in the decision. WIFI use is predominant and beyond that the flexibility of the 3g option (ala-carte plans and multi-carrier practically from day 1) makes it a non-issue.
2. The iPad CREATED a new market while the iPhone entered a market already saturated with [albeit far less capable] smartphones. Initially, many folks were indeed still happy to stick with their beloved Blackberry, etc… until they eventually became aware. As such, iPhone had to first unseat the very established status quo. The iPad has not had to first unseat anything, at most perhaps the short-lived “netbook” craze. And even the least informed buyer can readily see the difference between a $499 Acer and a $499 iPad.
3. Scale… Already it is clear that the iPad knockoffs cannot build a comparable product, and make a profit with it. Seems likely they will never get to even the present scale-pricing Apple gets on key components, etc. As such they will never be able to underprice the product in profitable manner. And price is perhaps already the only option left to otherwise convince buyers to chose an alternate. Nearterm, the knockoffs will continue to randomly try things, all loss-leading based upon a strategy to at least establish themselves as the 2nd or 3rd place brand longterm. They assume there is room for and want to capture it. Sandisk, iRiver, Zune, etc had the same strategy with the iPod. How much money was made with those and where are they now?
4. The proprietary Apple “ecosystem”, already significantly rooted in the culture of the world. iTunes, Apps, “Cables, Cases and Accessories”, Retail Stores and 3rd-party retail placement. Just like the iPod, the iPad is ALREADY everywhere, and regardless of what a tiny minority of tech geeks and/or Apple haters may wish to argue about (specs, “openness”, etc), both the informed masses and even grandma already think an iPad is the “tablet computer” and that a “tablet computer” is an iPad. Not easy to undo that. See Q-Tip. IMPOSSIBLE to undo it without a financial advantage.
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that imitators usually catch up and eclipse the innovator in market share. That’s just one metric. Big deal.
Does Audi or Porsche or BMW dominate the worldwide automotive market? No, but they make more money than many crapcar makers, and their products are at or near best in every segment they compete.
Apple: please continue to focus on long-term product quality and value, and ignore the chicken little analysts who focus on who sells the most units.
Yeah well, if I had a dollar for every time I heard “If I had a dollar …”
I miss the good ol days of the “hotly anticipated” iPod killer, year after year…Competition and tea leaf reading keep some people employed and a few others entertained. It’d be boring if we just declared a “winner” straight away and went home.
I predict that if Nomura is still in business in three years, that 75% of it’s tablet using employees will be using iPads!
He may be right. By 2014, Apple will already push the next paradigm change, and the iPad will go the way of the iPod, supplanted by something even better.
If you are a failure in your career job choices,
there is always a back up and become an
‘analyst’. 🙂
Same headline, different time differential. I see this headline constantly by hopeful “analysts” and the time keeps getting longer and longer and longer. When are they going to admit Apple started the iPad market using the infrastructure of iTunes and iPhone to back it and has such a head start in this market with the highest quality and customer satisfaction of anyone and isn’t letting it just fly out the window with the release of a cheap plastic imitation of what started the whole Pad market.
In three years!!!!!!!
Can Android compete with iOS 8 in three years?