“In a piece I published yesterday at Seeking Alpha, I laid out two different forecasts for 2011 iPhone sales,” Andy Zaky writes for Seeking Alpha. “One scenario is based on the assumption that the iPhone 5 is unveiled and launched for sale in June, and the other scenario is based on the assumption that the iPhone 5 released for sale in September.
“The current overwhelming consensus suggests that the iPhone will in fact be delayed until September, but just in case Apple (AAPL) decides to pull off a surprise launch at the worldwide developers conference held in June, it’s wise to lay out two different forecasts until we know for sure,” Zaky writes. “I should point out, however, there is some evidence that may suggest an iPhone launch is coming in June.”
Zaky writes, “As I pointed out in yesterday’s article, the iPhone delay could cost Apple more than $4.5 billion in revenue during in its fiscal Q4, which will be to the benefit of one or more quarters in fiscal 2012.”
Read more in the full article here.
I probably won’t be getting a new iPhone this year. If it had a 4′ inch screen I would for sure.
Zaky is predicting around $75B in iPhone revenue in Apple’s fiscal year 2012. It would be very interesting to see a plot of Apple’s cumulative revenue (in current $) from it’s first year through 2010. I’ll bet that the forecast $75B from the iPhone alone would match the cumulative revenue for quite a few years.
Apple absolutely cannot delay the launch of the iPhone 5 beyond August if it wants to ramp up production sufficiently to meet back to school and year end sales in their most profitable quarter to December. As they have $60 billion burning a hole in their bank they could line up manufacturers and prepay for a lot of components to ensure that the ramp up goes off without a hitch barring unforeseen circumstances.
We’ll probably have the iPhone 5 launch in either July or August would be my estimate unless Apple pulls off a surprise in WWDC and launches it then. The iPhone is absolutely critical to Apple’s success as it makes up 50% of revenue and Apple cannot let the ball drop on this.
Given the competitive nature of the smartphone wars in 2011, in other words 2011 is not 2009, Apple won’t just refresh the iPhone to a 4S but will substantially improve the design to a 5. I think Steve Jobs has absolutely got his eye on this and it won’t be fumbled for sure.
As for the predictive numbers they look a bit overstated to me. Currently Apple sells about 18-19 million iPhones per quarter running at almost full tilt production-wise. For Apple to sell 115 million a year quarterly sales will need to hit 29 million which isn’t feasible I don’t think particularly as production lines will need to be ramped up to accommodate the launch of 5.
I think Apple will hit about 25 million phones per quarter giving 100 million iPhones a year. Of course China and India remain largely untapped markets but to sell to China Mobile Apple will need to develop a WCDMA phone.
The only problem is that there are going to be twice that many Android smartphones being sold and Wall Street will consider Apple’s iPhone numbers insignificant in comparison. That will undoubtedly magnify Apple’s growth limitations in investors’ eyes. There are definite crying times ahead for Apple shareholders. Apple will be piling up mountains of cash and revenue while the stock sinks lower each quarter. WS is absolutely convinced that Apple will eventually to lose out to Android.
115 million iPhones in a year will be impossible for Apple to deliver. They have an extremely weak supply chain that is already breaking in various spots. One company can only build so many devices in a short span of time and Apple has already reached its limits.
What’s really funny is that a year ago if Apple had sold 50 million iPhones it would have been an amazing feat. Now, 100 million iPhone units is considered nothing since Android is completely dominating the smartphone market. Wall Street looks at market share only and Apple will be soundly sitting in second or third spot and considered an also-ran.
You sound more like The Clueless Investor. The Street could care less how many Hemroid units are sold as all the profit is in the iPhone.
Do you mean ‘couldn’t care less’?
What about all the lawsuits that will be taking place soon against copied not created code in android. Remember Oracle owns java now and Ellison wants his cut. The legal problems are just about to start for Googles Droid bullshit!
No iPhone till sept. Sorry but there have been multiple delays on production and componets. However once it’s launched expect to see a new design 4in screen and more.
It’s exciting