So, how’d the Apple analysts do? The best and worst of Q2 2011

“The Wall Street analysts who get paid to cover Apple (AAPL) got some things right,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“Several predicted Apple’s total revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 2011 within a few hundred million dollars. And their tendency to underestimate Apple’s unit sales served them well in the iPad category,” P.E.D. reports. “But when it came to the number that matters most — the bottom line: earnings per share — it was the amateurs, once again, who nailed it and the pros who blew it.”

P.E.D. reports, “In our ranking of the best and worst analysts for Q2 2011, which lists them by how accurately they predicted Apple’s revenue and EPS, the amateurs took 13 of the top 15 spots. The bottom 32 spots were all held by professionals working for banks and brokerage houses. Taken as a whole, the numbers they sent their paying clients were off by a margin (11%) more than four times as big as those generated by the guys who do it for free (2.5%).”

Read more in the full article, including a full analysts’ report card, here.


  1. The best quote from the article:

    JMP’s Alex Gauna, who made a name for himself last month by downgrading Apple in the middle of the company’s best non-holiday quarter ever. He fell off our charts because he never supplied the unit sales numbers we requested, but his revenue estimate $22 billion would have been the second worst, and his $5.1 EPS estimate not much better.


  2. As a Canadian, I should be saddened by this but, it only makes sense to go with what will do the job best. If RIM could do better, why can’t they prove it by putting out a better product instead of that piece of sh**t they just started pounding out to the public. Go Apple! Push those bastiges hard.

  3. On the whole, “professional” analysts are playing with your money because they don’t have enough skill to generate wealth using their own money. Many of them aren’t worth free, much less a fee.

  4. Bottom line…. Professional analysts are very inept on figuring out or estimating Apple’s EPS. Don’t pay or follow analysts because again and again they are way way off reality.

    Someone please tell analysts the deal is to estimate close to actual EPS not away. Expect no warranties from analysts whatsoever.

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