Analyst: Apple keeping iPhone 5 cards very close to the vest

In a note to clients this morning, Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White writes:

The success of the iPad 2 launch is clear given the continued serial stock-outs, and one of our contacts believes iPad unit sales could reach up to 40 million in CY11.

Regarding the iPhone, we are increasingly becoming suspicious around continued reports of a delayed iPhone 5 launch into September/October versus the typical June/July time frame. Although we do not have a smoking gun that definitively rules out a delayed autumn unveiling or one that supports a launch this summer, there is a pattern of activity in motion within the supply chain that makes us question a delayed launch.

Essentially, we believe Apple is keeping its iPhone 5 cards extra close to the vest on this launch to avoid a falloff in iPhone 4 demand ahead of a refresh, especially given the February launch of the CDMA iPhone 4 with Verizon.

MacDailyNews Take: Translation: No iPhone 5 prototypes in Redwood City bars this year.

[Thanks to a MacDailyNews reader who wishes to remain anonymous for the heads up.]


    1. With apologies to Ted Nugent (lyrics adapted from “The Great White Buffalo” from the Double Live Gonzo album)

      Well, listen everybody,
      to what I got to say.
      There’s hope for tomorrow,
      Ooh,we’re workin’on today.

      Well,it happened long time ago,
      in the new magic land.
      The people and the iPhone,
      they existed hand in hand….

      The people needed apps,
      they needed iOS, to boot.
      Steve gave them what they needed.
      Millions of iPhones were the proof.

      But then came the that Ballmer man,
      with his thick and empty head.
      He couldn’t see past the billfold,
      he wanted all the iPhones dead.

      And then came the Fandroids,
      with their thick and empty heads.
      They didn’t have the App Store.
      still they wanted all the iPhones dead.

      When I looked above the canyon wall,
      some strong eyes did I see.
      I think its something comin’ around
      to save you and me.

      I said, above the canyon wall…
      strong eyes did glow.
      It was the leader of the land,baby.
      The GREAT WHITE iPhone…..

      The Great White iPhone,
      comin’around to make a final stand.
      Well,look out here he comes.

      The great white iPhone,baby.

      The Great White iPhone….

      Look out,here he comes.
      He’s doin’all right.
      Makin’everything all right.

      1. I am waiting for the iPhone 10 running iOSX. Maybe by then Sprint might actually have an iPhone available for it’s network. (If there still is a Sprint network 5 years from now that is.)

    1. Me three. My 3GS is doing fine – battery life still kicks ass a year and a half out, but I do plan on getting the iPhone 5 whenever it comes out. My guess is that iOS 5 will only run on Apple chips (ie. iPhone 4 and 5).

      Is there a non-original Shiva posting somewhere?

  1. “Essentially, we believe Apple is keeping its iPhone 5 cards extra close to the vest on this launch to avoid a falloff in iPhone 4 demand ahead of a refresh…”

    …which makes me wonder if the ‘delayed’ rumor came from Apple in the first place. Basically – “Just keep buying iP4’s, folks, we won’t have a new model for months!” and later in June “Oh wait, you mean THIS iPhone 5?!?”

    1. Do you think Apple really need to worry about people holding back by an iPhone? I knew someone who bought the 3GS a week or two before the iPhone4 was coming out. I told her she could exchange it for the iP4 but she never did.
      I have a feeling that most people don’t hear the rumors flying around and are generally oblivious to the next best thing being around the corner.

      I personally think the rumors are spread by those in the stock market trying to manipulate the aapl stock for their own end.

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