Blasphemer!: Alex Guana, the analyst who downgraded Apple

“JMP Securities analyst Alex Guana got quite a bit of attention — as well as the honorary MarketBeat ‘Golden Guillotine’ award for sticking his neck out — earlier this week, with a rare downgrade of Apple to ‘market perform’ from ‘market outperform,'” Matt Phillips blogs for The Wall Street Journal. “He took a few moments to parry a few questions from MarketBeat via email.”

MarketBeat: Alex, thanks a lot for taking a few minutes. Just to give our readers a sense of your background you’ve been a tech analyst for a while, first at Banc of America Securities, then UBS and now at JMP Securities, is that correct?

Alex Guana: Yes, that is correct. Prior to beginning my career as an Analyst on Wall Street, I was an electrical engineer for a hybrid electric vehicle start up, for Toyota Motor Corporation (based in Japan for three years), and with IBM. It is from my Japan, IBM and associated TRW relationships that I first evolved some expertise in advanced materials used in cellular and fiber optic communications.

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Ellis D.” for the heads up.]

Related articles:
Another analyst dismisses Apple-Hon Hai downgrade theory – March 17, 2011
AAPL: Why did ‘The Most Valuable Company in the World’ drop like a rock? – March 17, 2011
Apple shares off nearly 4.5% as tech leads broad market retreat over Japan concerns – March 16, 2011
JMP Securities analyst downgrades Apple on Japanese supplier slowdown – March 16, 2011


    1. And yet you offer nothing that contradicts anything he’s said. Why don’t you give the matter a little thought and come back and tell where he’s wrong in his conclusion, okay smartass?

      I distinctly recall reading about one of Han Hai’s competitors getting a green light and a huge cash infusion from Apple to build another manufacturing facility. I’m not suggesting that that facility is now operational, however, so many of the systemic problems at Hon Hai are manifestations of an overburdened facility.

      Could it be that Apple is spreading the workload around a bit, or perhaps just taking a little heat off of HH?

      Personally, I think his premise is a non sequitur because any slow down at Hon Hai translates into decreased sales. The fact is when Hon Hai sneezes, Apple’s market catches cold.

  1. Where the hell is the downgrade for all the other supposed Tablet makers who won’t even get they copycat tablets into the market due to lack of supply? The can’t even get out there to compete and are missing a major business opportunity. This guy just has a hard on for trashing Apple and I’m sure he just wanted to manipulate the stock so he could buy knowing it will easily go back up – I guess mission accomplished – just sucks for us investing on our own.

    1. This ANALyst is an arrogant NOBODY! His Mosquito-Effect analysis should be iCal’ed so MDN can ridicule his next article where he will announce why the opposite of what he predicted has happened!

      1. If he’s as bad as you say he is, why wait for the calendar, let’s hear your take, right here and now!

        You’re a self-professed APPL guy, give it to us in small words so we can savor every syllable of clever analysis, k cupcake?

  2. At the Shops at Mission Viejo Mall, the mall employees have been coming in to the mall at 3am to 4:30am, using their passcodes and store keys, to get into the mall and get in line. For the past week since the launch, there is a line in front of the Apple store of about 30+ people long before the mall opens for walkers at 7:30am. This apple store has been getting 8-12 ipads a day, and sells them all before the line of mall employees has even finished. Then they come back the next day and do it all again. Meanwhile, there are ipads going for $700 and more on the local craigslist listings.

    1. A tip from one South Orange County resident to another: just down the aisle from the Apple Store in the Shops at Mission Viejo is the copycat Microsoft Store. Since it gets no traffic anyway, stop by there and use their comfy easy chairs to take advantage of their WiFi. Serves ’em right. Make sure you bring your iPad with you to rub it in.

      I just got a mailer from Microshaft yesterday announcing that they will open another if their crappy copycat stores in South Coast Plaza in the city of Costa Mesa (I have four Appke Stores within 15 miles if me), where – get ready – Apple has one of its busiest stores.

      It’s proof that Microsift has mo ideas. The good news is that consumers can see through that. Bastiches.

  3. So tell me this: Why doesn’t Apple have a waiting list for customers who stand in long lines and end up going home empty-handed? They could call these people when new shipments come in instead of creating conditions that can only lead to what we have now—a pointless free-for-all that is needlessly creating alot of ill will towards Apple.

  4. It seems rather foolish to blame Apple for iPad 2 lines. It’s not like the iPad 2 is a dire necessity for consumers or that consumers will die because they can’t buy an iPad 2. It’s the consumers personal decision to wait on line on a daily basis. They could just decide that they’ll wait a couple of more weeks and try again.

    Foxconn employees are probably working their asses off trying to build iPad 2s quickly enough for Apple. Apple doesn’t merely wave a magic wand to have millions of those iPad 2s coming off the production line. Those consumers standing around on line should show a little patience and take care of some other things in their lives.

    This BS about Apple causing consumers suffering and not being concerned is so ridiculous. I’m sure Apple tried to stockpile enough iPad 2s, but overwhelming demand means just that. It goes beyond anticipated planned supply. Maybe even 3 million iPad 2s stockpiled wouldn’t have been enough to stop the lines.

  5. We should not hate this analyst nor his information. (Unless you are a daytrader and just went long on AAPL.) Even negative information has is benefits. It can help us to know our positions better and whether or not to BHS (buy,hold, or sell).

    I begin to get very leery when EVERYBODY jumps on board, tooting their horn. Nothing against the regular “man”, but when everybody begins to buy into something the top is near. And conversely, when everybody is selling the bottom may be near. bubble, the internet explosion, and the current real estate debacle are the most recent examples of excesses of greed and risky investing. I too was caught up in the bubble but didn’t risk critical funds. Know the “common man” doesn’t usually have access to the REAL deals being made in the market. Usually only the insiders or founders. Or, you may be lucky.

    I am long in AAPL and have long been an Apple user (beginning with the LC) and currently have many Apple products. I also am beginning to more carefully evaluate my AAPL holdings. Positive is the demand and growth of Apple’s mobile ecosystem, the iPad, and continued strong growth of the Mac. As people are fond of saying, “Apple is hitting on all cyclinders.”

    Negatives include potential general market weakness and issues of Steve’s health. I was pleasantly surprised at the small weakness of AAPL with the latest Steve health issue, but I think there may be even more weakness if Steve has further, more severe issues. (I pray for him the best.) Finally, the US is in a shaky holding pattern of debt/income/joblessness/federal support. Sooner or later, we will have to pay the piper. Someone will call our chit.

    1. But he’s not talking about weakness or Apple’s stock value. The point he’s making is, he’s seen first hand evidence that Hon Hai is not firing on all cylinders and from that he’s extrapolating a decline in sales for the near term.

      You and everyone else throwing stones at this guy can stammer all you want, but not one one of you non-members has even bothered to offer a counter-argument. Just bluster from your toothless pie holes.

      1. The demand of Apple products have yet to slow down. Despite “competitors” left and right the demand is still there. Despite Consumer Reports, only comes in black and antennagate the iPhone 4 is finding success. Whether it’s drinking the kool aid or people actually are loyal to the brand the demand is there if not continuing to rise.

        Read the f’n article. Marketbeat pretty much summed up Mr. Guana’s reasoning to the downgrade and it’s a slowdown of apple product demand not supply. You just don’t put your neck out there due to supply constraints.

        The Mac computer continue to gain PC market share. iPad are in higher demand than last year. People are already talking about iPhone 5. Seriously the demand is slowing down for the immediate term.

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