Five ways the Verizon iPhone will change the mobile landscape:
1. When Verizon has the iPhone its Droid sales will dip
2. Second, expect nothing to change in terms of iPhone development over the next few years… there is no reason for Apple to release a “better” model on either platform (even LTE) until all carriers converge to LTE
MacDailyNews Take: So reason #2 on a list of how things will change is “no change?” Okay, got it. Headline revised from “five” to “four.”
3. Expect a banner year for Verizon
4. Expect Apple make this announcement quietly and without fanfare
5. The Verizon iPhone won’t be much better than the AT&T iPhone when it comes to reception and data transmission – at least not yet… most users use a little more than 200MB of data a month… and there are a total of about 11 million AT&T iPhones floating around out there. According to AppleInsider, Verizon sold an estimated 4.4 million Droids. Verizon has 92 million subscribers while AT&T has 90 million. So 11 million AT&T subscribers are slamming the network while 4 million Droid-ites are tapping Verizon’s network gently. So what happens, then, when the iPhone effect hits Verizon, especially on Verizon’s older, slower CDMA network? Verizon will experience the exact issue that has been plaguing AT&T: the curse of success.
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: We’ve long held that Verizon would choke on iPhone data traffic, but we’ve grown less sure of that lately. Along with Verizon themselves, we’ll just have to wait and see. Don’t forget that some portion of Android settlers will upgrade to the iPhones they really wanted – in some surveys, more than half of Verizon’s subscribers want iPhones! – so not all Verizon iPhones will be net additions to the carrier’s data demand. One thing that may happen, too: AT&T could get better as the burden of carrying the full U.S. iPhone load decreases.
I have no desire to switch to Verizon, but I do admit, I tend to lose voice calls more frequently on 3G than on Edge with ATT. So, switching to Verizon would make little difference (unless they go with LTE) since VZ still doesn’t have simultaneous voice/data on their 3G.
I don’t understand why anybody would ever want to use a Verizon phone.
You can’t surf the Internet & talk at the same time, you can’t take your phone to other countries because it won’t work there, and Verizon’s 3G network is significantly slower than AT&T’s network.
AT&T will always keep my business.
As a pretty much satisfied AT&T iPhone customer, the Verizon iPhone means little to me…BUT as a shareholder of AAPL, I’m all for it!
“So what happens, then, when the iPhone effect hits Verizon, especially on Verizon’s older, slower CDMA network?”
This is exactly the reason why they are wrong on argument 2 – no LTE support.
And because the Verizon iPhone will support LTE they are also wrong with number 3, 4 and 5.
Everyone talks about how verizon is the best here.. (central MN) in my living room, my verizon-carrying friends get ZERO service…. They have to go a block away to get any bars. And we are in the middle of a solid verizon coverage map, too. And you can see a cell tower from my front step, so this is puzzling. All other carriers show strong signal in my living room.
Everyone used to laugh at me because I was on Sprint. But now I get better tower and 3G service than any of my friends. I also pay less than them and get more!
AT and T’s pricing and plans stink, ATT has no 3G here, and Verizon doesn’t work in my house. So unless iPhone comes to all carriers, I am left out in the cold (literally, it was 10 below zero fahrenheit here yesterday)
@MacBill
It may be a dual iPhone: CDMA and GSM.
“We’ve long held that Verizon would choke on iPhone data traffic,”
MDN has long held a position on each side of every fence. Its ‘takes’ are nonsensical and annoying.
#Gregg
How dare MDN spin Mac/Apple/iPhone news!
Apple will quietly roll this out? I guess he does not know Apple well; they don’t release things quietly, especially iPhone. They keep quiet until the release, then go nuts. Yes a lot of Mac stuff, especially Pro apps, do not have all the fanfare. Even then they put out good press releases and do a grate presentation on their website.
Apple will sit still for two years, yea right. This has not happened with SJ in charge. OK, yes some Pro apps, FCP. However that could be due to the fact they are working on a new Mac OS. No Apple will not sit still.
I will be very surprised if the new phone does not have LTE. Other nations already have LTE, this will be a big selling point for them. This could also bring FaceTime off wi-fi only, a big drawback for iPhone owners.
No shit it will affect AT&T and Android. Yet both will fight hard for customers.
This man is crazy.
Interesting that of the five ways this will change the mobile landscape, one is that it doesn’t change, and one has absolutely nothing to do with change or the mobile landscape
Several things here.
It has been widely reported that Droid (Android) users tend to use as much, and sometimes even more, bandwidth as iPhone users. Apparently, these phones have an OS made by Google, which tends to be very chatty on the network (there must be SOME way to make money on the OS, if you’re giving it away for free). That might imply that Verizon shouldn’t feel the burden all that much. Not quite, though.
Adding an iPhone to Verizon is not exactly a zero-sum game. While half of Droids will be replaced with iPhones, there is no chance that those old Droids would would all end up in some drawers. There are no other networks where these replaced Droids can go but Verizon, so majority of them will end up on Craig’s List or eBay, and will continue their service on Verizon. Bottom line, Verizon will be adding many more data-sucking smartphones to their network.
There is absolutely no reason for Apple to make a big deal out of this. They are currently selling iPhone in (almost) hundred countries of the world, on over hundred carriers. Verizon is just another one carrier. No need to blow it out of proportion…
@Predrag
That’s interesting, because I was going to point out the surveys we’ve seen that show that the average iPhone user uses the actual smartphone features much more than the average Android user. Android users don’t download nearly as many apps, for example. So I was thinking that replacing Android phones with iPhones would result in an increase in data usage. But I hadn’t considered that Android phones would be consuming bandwidth on their own.
——RM
Because Android has put itself on so many phones, many people don’t necessarily know they are buying an Android phone and Android activation numbers are misleading in their meaning.
Many people also don’t know the difference between “Android” and Nokia, other than the fact that all new phones now come with this whole “touch screen stuff.”
Why does that matter? Because those people don’t care about the (lack of an) Android ecosystem. They probably aren’t buying/downloading anything. From a developer standpoint, that’s not the place to go to SELL your stuff.
@Predrag
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Agreed a carrier is a carrier the only important thing here is that it’s Apple
In a portfolio of truly unfunny reception experiences, my most ironic took place in Philly’s Citizen’s Bank Park watching the Phillies clinch the NLCS last year. Could not even connect on the ATT network; grabbed a colleague’s Verizon Blackberry – crystal clear.
The irony? The grouping of stadiums in Philly is named “ATT Sports Complex”. Well done, guys.
Verizon won’t choke on iPhones. The ramp up will be much slower thus allowing them to be more strategic in beefing up their network over time.
By the way, Mid-Michigan coverage has gotten much better (on Edge).
@peter.s,
I wonder why everyone always says the “older” antiquated CDMA network? Don’t you people know that CDMA is actually “newer” than GSM. In fact CDMA was rolled out in 94-95 to compete with the “older” 1980’s GSM networks. And it is actually a better technology than GSM for voice. Which is what it was developed for at the time. CDMA voice is almost usually crystal clear, whilst GSM is cell phone sounding.
And the whole data and voice at the same time limitation of CDMA is not because it “can’t” do both at once. It was rolled out like that at a time when mobile data was not used by the general population and is partly why CDMA voice is so good. BUT, it is not technologically incapable of doing simultaneous voice and data. In fact, there is a possible CDMA software update that would allow this. With LTE around the proverbial corner I doubt we’ll see this though.
By the end of 2011 the number of Verizon iPhones that Apple sells per quarter will equal the number of AT&T ones.
Jobs made Verizon kneel like the stupid vassal they are. Sorta like asswipe Pelosi.
So there are only 4 million droids in use? I thought they were selling 300,000 a day. That would take less than 4 days sales and they been at it for a year. Either this article is nuts or 95% of droids are being sold overseas. China? Once again I am baffled by statistics. Only 11 million iPhones? Really? Boy am I out of touch, it seems.
@X
Is that your name or is the X supposed to be crosshairs, you jackass?
Wrong. The biggest way the Verizon iPhone will change the mobile landscape is that AT&T customers with iPhones will be able to make phone calls at last.
Er, the data use of Droid subscribers is MORE not less than iPhone subs….
Droid users actually get their OS updates over-the-air… Can you imagine ATT’s network handling that???
They can’t b/c their 3G coverage area is so geographically small and you certainly couldn’t push out an OS update over creaky old EDGE….
Also, this idiot reporter doesn’t understand that the benefit of not having simultaneous voice + data (until VoIP gets up to snuff) is you can manage the capacity & quality of the voice & data network separately, thereby providing a higher quality service overall.
@Wireless Test
Given how pathetic the Android OS updates have been, I’m hard-pressed to believe it’s a major drag on the network.