MacDailyNews Take: We’ve each gone from carrying a 17-inch MacBook Pro (6.6 lbs. + ) to carrying an iPad 3G and an 11-inch MacBook Air (1.6 lbs. + 2.3 lbs. = 3.9 lbs. total). The bags we use are also much smaller and lighter. (We use Tom Bihn “Co-Pilot” bags or Crumpler “Salary Sacrifice” backpacks to carry our iPad + 11-inch MacBook Air mobile arsenals. Although they do fit in each bag, our iPhone 4’s are almost always in our pockets).
Suciu continues, “Others in the industry believe the expected demise of the laptop may be premature. Instead, the line between laptop, tablet computer and smartphone will likely blur as a variety of new products emerges that will appeal to different types of consumers. ‘There has already been a reset on how people are using the iPad,’ says Rob Enderle, principal analyst for the Enderle Group. ‘Early iPad people thought it was going to be ‘my everything device,’ but since it came out, half the people I know have gone back to notebooks. What is interesting is that they have moved to an Apple notebook not a Windows machine.'”
“The other factor to consider, says Enderle, is that no other product in the category has been as successful as the iPad,” Suciu reports. “He notes that the Samsung Galaxy had good sell to numbers, but not good sell through numbers at retail, and we could see history repeating itself. There is a chance, he says, that the tablet market could wind up like the digital music player market: dominated by Apple. There were of course MP3 and other digital music players before the iPod arrived, but since its release in late 2001, it has dominated the market. Says Enderle, ‘There is a chance the same thing could happen here.'”
MacDailyNews Take: Rob Enderle making sense… Uh oh. Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes… The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together… Mass hysteria!
Suciu cobtinues, “The Apple iPad factored into Gartner’s PC sales prediction for this year. With just five weeks remaining in 2010, Gartner cut its forecast for PC shipments. Gartner Research Director George Shiffler stressed that forecast reductions actually reflected a general re-thinking of its forecast for mobile PC sales to the U.S. and Western European home markets, based on the impact of the Apple iPads as well as other media tablets including those made by traditional PC vendors.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: In Apple’s fiscal 2010 ended September 25, 2010, net sales and unit sales of Apple Macintosh notebook computers (MacBook, MacBook Pro, and MacBook Air) increased by 18% and 25%, respectively. If iPad is killing laptop sales, it’s only killing the ones that are festooned with Windows stickers. To complete this picture, someone just needs to hand Ballmer a fiddle.
Right on MDN!
Enderle making sense?
don’t worry, that was just an intentional preparation for a follow-up to come soon. he is just charging such that he or his dog can write what an epic failure sales of 65M iPad sales will be…
I have a 13″ MacBook Pro but since purchasing the iPad I use it very sparingly. I recently went on a business trip to Pittsburgh and left my MacBook home and I did not miss it one bit. The combination of portability and battery life of the iPad makes it the ideal travel companion.
iPad will probably kill the laptop for many people, however, only when it is a standalone device (not having to plug into another computer to get it rolling). It all depends on what you’re doing.
Enderle woke up today and forgot to take his Stupid pills.
I don’t think the iPad is displacing the laptop at all. From an anecdotal perspective, my wife carries an iPhone, iPad 3G and a 15″ MacBook Pro. Throughout the day, she uses the iPad heavily. However, when she wants to do more heavy duty work (for the photography business), she has to take out the MacBook Pro to use Aperture or to do website updates etc.
Similarly, I carry an iPhone 4, iPad 3G and the 17″ MacBook Pro. Additionally, an iMac sits on my desk at the office. The iPad does a lot – even allowing me to use VPN to get into our Synology box at the office and approve employees’ time cards (electronic). However, when I want to do serious editing or file creation, the iPad can’t deliver. I then use either my desktop or my laptop.
For me, the 17″ is a bit large, however when I am out of the office and need the large screen real estate for photo editing and large spreadsheets, it is useful.
The iPad cannot, in its current form, replace my desktop or my laptop. It simply lacks the capability. However, there are times when I wish I could just use something like the MacBook Air since I don’t always want to have the large 17″. At least that will give me the full OS, though it doesn’t have the power to do what I want with Aperture etc.
Enderle making sense is about as likely as it is to snow in Phoenix . . . wait, it’s actually snowing in Phoenix! My kids just put snowballs in the freezer . . . .
The iPad won’t kill the laptop, because the laptop will continue to be more powerful than a tablet for quite some time. Eventually, however, the difference will vanish and tablets will dominate, if not replace, laptops. But we’re talking 10 years here.
Of course not. Some predicted that laptops would make consumers “all but abandon” desktop computers. But iMacs and other desktop computers are still strong, because a lot people will trade portability for the much larger size screen and other higher capabilities of a desktop computer. Still, a lot of people did buy a laptop instead of a desktop, because the capabilities of laptops greatly improved over time.
The same thing will happen with tablets. As Apple continues to improve the capabilities of iPad (including the key ability to operate completely independently from a Mac or PC), more and more people will use one as their primary computer. However, a lot of consumers will prefer to use a laptop or a desktop computer.
What’s happening right now is that most iPad customers are current Windows users, and a lot of them are still using older XP machines. iPad needs a Mac or PC for set up and ongoing updates/maintenance/backup. Since their experience with iPad is usually very positive, they decide to get a Mac to replace their aging PC.
That’s partly why Mac sales have been at record levels, because of the “halo effect” from the iPhone and now the iPad. And while the overall PC industry is considered “mature,” it’s a HUGE growth opportunity for Apple, because there are so many more Windows machines out there to replace with Macs.
I received on of the Google Chrome test laptops and have been using it quite a bit. After experiencing that machine and the iPad, I cannot see any reason why anyone would chose Chrome OS over the iPad. The iPad replacing the casual laptop user and will obliterate netbooks. Laptops will be used as mobile workstations and for serious gamers who want portability.
It’ll never kill it for us people who like using a real keyboard AND who don’t like having to touch and smudge the screens.
The iPad has changed my buying intention from MacBook Air + external display to iMac + iPad. As more powerful iPad apps are released and people become more comfortable using them, the notebook will be gradually displaced.
I happily sold my MacBook when I got my iPad. I still use my iMac as my main computing device, but for using the web and Email in bed or outside or when traveling like now the iPad is much better than the lap top ever was.
Today lots of people use a lap top like I use my iMac so I think there will always be a place for lap tops.
With the brute (MacPro/24″ LED Cinema) at my desk and an iPhone in my pocket, the iPad is increasingly becoming more than enough on the go.
The apps will only get better as developer tools and a growing experience base improve iOS software.
For real computing nothing matches a powerful workstation desktop, but I really didn’t need a laptop any longer.
It has been shipped off to it’s second life & I hope he enjoys it as much as I have.
I use iMacs at work and at home and have a 15″ MBP for the road. I’ll definitely be getting the iPad 2 and it’ll be interesting to see if the iPad will replace the MBP. I have a feeling it will since I’m primarily using the MBP for email, web browsing, watching movies, uploading photos I take, and doing a little bit of spreadsheet work on the Excel. That’s really it so I’m wiling to just keep the MBP at home now.
I travel a lot (all over the US, Europe and the Far East) so keeping it light does matter. Once you try to navigate the subway systems of London, Paris, Seoul and Tokyo with a bag full of stuff (and sometimes luggage), you can feel the difference when shedding a few pounds. It really helps to keep things light and Apple understands that.
I now travel with iPhone + iPad and 11″ MBA for long trips. iPhone + iPad only for short trips. I use iMac desktop for heavy duty stuff. With dropbox on all devices, makes things nice.
I haven’t bought an iPad, but I will reconsider again when the iPad 2 comes out. I have a 15″ MacBook Pro, and an iMac I use mostly for my computing needs, and don’t mind lugging around my 15″ at all.
But I need to find a reason to buy one. I’ve toyed with one and it is great just haven’t found the need too. Mostly because my iPhone let’s me do everything I need to when I’m on the go– surf(granted a tiny screen), email, read news, play games etc) and if I need more computing power I’ll always prefer a desktop or a laptop.
The iPad will not kill the laptop. If anything, it will kill the Netbook. They will do one last effort by using the Atom with dual cores. If the rumors are correct and if Apple puts a dual core in the iPad, that will be the last nail on the coffin for the Netbooks. Laptops will be around for a while yet. They are not going anywhere. They said before that the laptop will kill the desktop. It never did.
I just can’t wait for the day that the iPad (or other mobile OS tablets) kill off the Windows netbook. I don’t mind if there are Linux netbooks, but Windows 7 does not belong on a netbook and it never was supposed to be on them. I want to see all those millions of Windows OEM netbook licenses go up in smoke. Eventually the highest component cost on a netbook will be the Windows OS and vendors should just throw Windows OS away.
Microsoft will likely never get consumers to buy a Windows 7 tablet and that will be the finish of low-end Windows 7 sales. 90% of consumers do not need a Windows device unless they absolutely have to run Microsoft Office for work or some Windows critical application.
There is no question in my mind that the iPad removes the need for a laptop for many people. Particularly those with a desktop in place. For casual users, a laptop was the only option for connected travel (except for those who were happy with a smartphone in a pinch). Now the iPad fills that niche nicely for many.
The iPad is terrific, but a full-fledged laptop replacement it isn’t. Not by a long shot. Nor does it need to be. Everybody thinks they know the future. The problem is that nobody knows the present!
Enderle says people are putting down their iPads and going back to notebooks. Nonsense. Nobody puts down their iPads. But they are different devices for different tasks. This spring I will be getting a new MBP as well as the next gen iPad.
I think for a huge number of consumers the iPad is enough, and I’m guessing it will be sooner than later that at some point the iPad will be a standalone device. Apple is proving that you don’t have to have to have mobile devices with massive storage. There will also be number of consumers that have tons of music, movies, photos, and videos. In that case, use a Mac as the central hub and server for all the iDevices: iPad, iPod, iPhone, Apple TV.
if I ever get an iPhone ( Which will be soon ) I don’t think I’ll ever need an iPad….
I still like want Mac OS X at my fingertips, not iOS. You still can’t do everything on an iPad, yet u can do it all on a laptop.
After i get my iphone, I will then get a Mac Book but summers end. Try using an iPad for 3 hrs vs an iPad & tell me which will you feel more strained using. I felt strain in the 1st 10 minutes in 2 occasions, at the Apple store and at a best buy.
Will it slump laptop sales, yes. Kill it, no.
Since my wife got her iPad this past summer, she has used her laptop about 2-3 times other than the times, she’s had to update iOS, apps, and sync some photos. The only reason she has to use her computer is to work on MS Office skills to stay relevant in the marketplace. I offered to upgrade her trusty old iBook G4 to a MacBook. She said that the only thing she wants to upgrade to is an iPad 3G, so she can take it on the road and not depend on a Starbucks to get connected. I’ll never part from my MacBook, but I know there a whole bunch of consumers like my wife who will never go back to a desktop computer or a laptop.
The ipad is great but it can’t do everything. I cant edit photos and video on it i cant do the spreadsheets and docs i need to. I can do some but it is much less of a program then what is on my iMac.
I cant edit video on the iPad allot of what i do requires me taking bits of other video and downloading it and then adding it into our video. Tis can’t be done on the iPad.
I can’t do youtube very well it take longer to load a video then it does to watch it. Netflix quality on the ipad is poor. Smetimes its ok but usually it’s very
blocky and just overall bad quality.
I love my iPad and it does replace allot of things my macbook pro can do but not everything. There will always be laptops for the power users.