Stifel raises Apple estimates; downgrades BlackBerry-maker RIM

Cyber Monday “Stifel Nicolaus analyst Doug Reid this afternoon issued a flurry of noteworthy research reports, among other things raising his estimates on Apple (AAPL), cutting his rating on Research In Motion,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s.

Apple: Repeating his Buy rating, Reid raised his December quarter EPS estimate to $5.21 from $4.93, “following recent store checks and industry data that suggest Mac, iPad and iPhones are tracking above our previous estimates.” He inches up his iPad unit forecast to 6.6 million units from 6.5 million, boosting his FY 2011 forecast to 22.5 million units from 22.1 million. For iPhones, he now expects the company to sell 9 million units in the quarter, up from 8.4 million. His Mac forecast goes to 4.27 million units from 4.13 million.

• Research In Motion: Reid assumes coverage of the stock from another analyst, and cuts the firm’s rating to Hold from Buy. “Our cautious stance reflects our view that RIMM’s window of opportunity to create a competitive ecosystem of smart phone content has closed,” he writes. “Our industry checks confirm that developers are devoting a declining share of dollars and creativity into developing apps for BlackBerry OS, suggesting the competitiveness of RIMM devices will continue to fade rapidly. We are modeling RIMM market share to decline from 15.6% in Q3 2010 to 9.2% by Q4 2012.” Reid adds that he expects the Playbook tablet to get “only minimal traction with targeted enterprise users.”

Much more in the full article, including Reid’s views on Garmin, Motorola, TiVo, Logitech, and Nokia, here.


  1. Man it’s amazing how fast industry giants of yesteryear can disappear when someone with a better idea (aka disruptive technology) can rip out the tender and soft undersides of said sleeping complacent giants and kill the beast swiftly. True of Microsoft too, too scared to promote technology that dismantles past models of success so they end up standing inertly terrified until others eat their foundations away and then… collapse!

    Bah-Bye RIM. Don’t let the last developer hit you on the derriere on the way out.

  2. > Research In Motion: Reid assumes coverage of the stock from another analyst, and cuts the firm’s rating to Hold from Buy.

    I don’t understand the “Hold” rating, from the perspective of the investor. For the analyst, it’s just a way to cop out and NOT commit either way. If I was actually taking the advice of this analyst, and he rated something I owned as a HOLD, I would sell it and buy something that he rated as a BUY. To me, a HOLD rating is the same as a SELL rating, because the analyst is intentionally highlighting a previous BUY that has become less favorable.

    Not that I listen to analysts… ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />

  3. @ken1w
    Agreed. “Hold” means “Sell” in my book, too, because most analysts are highly reluctant to issue “Sell” recommendations. And, if they do, they are generally issued only after the stock is well on its way on a downward trend – often far to late to protect gains or even preserve capital. “Sells” are only issued after the big investors have pulled out. Similarly, “Buys” are often issued after a stock has already substantially appreciated (AAPL is a great example). There is too much conflict of interest in the investment industry for the small investor to rely upon analyst recommendations.

    The last time that I checked, the quantity of buy/strong buy recommendations far outnumbered the quantity of sell/strong sell recommendations. I doubt that the analyst distribution reflects the reality of the investment situation.

  4. iPad 2 with the FaceTime camera will be much bigger then people realize. Apple is gearing up for 70 million a year. If it is only “22.5 million units” it is because of part shortages!

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