ChangeWave sees huge gains for Apple iPhone at the expense of RIM and Motorola

“ChangeWave’s latest smart phone survey of 4,028 consumers shows an explosive transformation occurring in consumer demand – resulting in some major new winners and losers for second half 2010,” Jean Crumrine and Paul Carton report for ChangeWave. “The survey – completed June 24th – took a close-up look at consumer demand for the new Apple iPhone 4 and the HTC Droid Incredible, along with the impact these and other offerings are having on the rest of the smart phone industry.”

Among key emerging trends:
• Next 90 day projections show the most extensive growth in consumer smartphone sales ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey
• Big leaps forward for Apple and HTC are occurring at the expense of Motorola and RIM
• The accompanying transformation in mobile OS preferences is being led by a huge increase in demand for the Apple OS and an accelerating downturn for the RIM OS

Smartphone Growth

Crumrine and Carton report, “Consumer smartphone planned buying going forward is at an all-time high for a ChangeWave survey – with 16.4% of respondents in our latest survey saying they plan on buying a smart phone in the next 90 days.”

Crumrine and Carton report, “We note that overall buying plans going forward are significantly higher than they were a year ago at the start of the iPhone 3GS release.”

“In terms of current share, Apple (34%) is up 1-pt since our March survey to an all-time high while RIM (34%) has taken another hit – dropping 4-pts in the past 90 days,” Crumrine and Carton report. “Android phones continue to have a major impact on the market, with HTC (8%; up 2-pts) and its new Droid Incredible and EVO models the biggest beneficiary. Motorola (6%), who in recent surveys had registered a wave of new demand for their Droid model, remains unchanged in the current survey.

Crumrine and Carton report, “The new Apple iPhone 4 is driving much of the industry’s growth going forward, with more than one-in-two (52%) respondents who plan to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days saying they’ll get an Apple iPhone – an explosive 21-pt leap over our previous survey… Motorola (9%) has declined 7-pts since previously… Palm has also been buried in the wave of momentum for Apple and HTC. For the first time in a ChangeWave survey, Palm is registering less than 1% of planned smart phone purchases going forward.”

MacDailyNews Take: Palm? What is this “Palm” to which they are referring? (smirk) One more time, for old time’s sake:

We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in. – Palm CEO Ed Colligan on the prospect of an Apple “iPhone,” November 20, 2006

Crumrine and Carton report, “Satisfaction among existing customers helps explain much of the momentum shift in the smart phone market. The Apple iPhone continues to lead all other cell phone manufacturers, with 73% of owners reporting they are Very Satisfied with their iPhone.”

Crumrine and Carton report, “In a clear sign of what’s most hurting RIM, the Canadian manufacturer has fallen to sixth place in terms of customer satisfaction (30%) – their seventh consecutive quarterly decline. To put this in perspective, the following chart compares Apple’s Very Satisfied rating with Research in Motion’s over the last three years of ChangeWave surveys:

Crumrine and Carton report, “The new iPhone 4 and the iOS 4 have brought about a huge spike in demand for Apple going forward.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Bloodbath.

We now return to wading through FUD articles attempting to talk down the price of AAPL ahead of earnings.